5 things to watch for in Wednesday night’s Republican presidential debate

28 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Donald Trump has led the GOP race for 100 days. That’s no fad..

“I’ve got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around, being miserable, listening to people demonize me and feeling compelled to demonize them,” Bush said. “That is a joke. Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson gestures towards Donald Trump (R) during the second official GOP debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, September 16, 2015.

REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson The rise of such non-traditional Republican presidential hopefuls as Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina — all non-politicians — has many political pundits insisting the 2016 election is unique. We’re about to find out, just as soon as he decides. “Well, I don’t get it,” a confounded Trump said this week when asked to explain why the preference polls he touts every time he’s campaigning no longer show him as the unquestioned leader of the GOP’s 2016 presidential field.

But the truth is exactly the opposite: The GOP is on a well-worn path, followed since King Primary replaced King Convention as the preferred method for selecting presidential nominees. I’m deliberately ignoring the junior varsity debate, which airs at 6 p.m. and features Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, George Pataki and Lindsey Graham. Preference polls are a far-from-perfect way to predict election outcomes, especially with voters still three months away from casting ballots in the first-to-vote Iowa caucuses.

He answered a viewer’s question accordingly: “The third question — most popular question from Google is, ‘Is Rand Paul still running for president?’ ” Paul said. “I don’t know, I wouldn’t be doing this dumbass livestreaming if I weren’t. Conservative populist Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona upset the establishment favorite, New York Governor Nelson Rockefeller, in the defining California primary. So far, the real estate mogul and reality TV star has forgone paid advertising and traditional small-scale campaign events, where candidates interact with voters in the early voting states, for massive rallies in arenas and auditoriums. Get over it.” Paul added: “I wish I knew” why the livestream was happening. “I’ve been saying, ‘I don’t want to do this, I don’t want to do this,’ and now we’re doing this.” And on Tuesday night, in perhaps a lesser example of this trend — but still a very weird one — Sen.

Since then, GOP presidential-primary outcomes fall into three distinct and fascinating results 1) Every sitting Republican president eligible to seek another term won re-nomination: Richard M. At nearly every one, Trump begins his speech by recounting his place in the latest polls, reciting one number after the next with the help of hand-written notes.

Graham (R-S.C.) decided to comply with a question about which female politicians he would “date, marry, or make disappear forever” (a euphemistic title for a game millennials know well but isn’t fit to print here). Bush in 2004. 2) Every non-incumbent Republican primary winner who went on to win the general election would likely have been chosen by the party bosses anyway and so nominated by the old boss-controlled conventions.

A poll released this week by CBS News and The New York Times also showed Carson catching up to Trump nationally, too. “This process is extremely fluid right now,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, which conducted one of the Iowa polls. “Those outsider voters are now flipping back and forth.” For Trump, the development appears to be a hard-to-swallow reversal — one that some supporters hope will force the billionaire businessman to compete harder for the Republican nomination than he has since the summer launch of his campaign. I think I’ve got something to offer.” 1) Everyone not named Donald Trump or Ben Carson is struggling to get noticed, and it seems the only way to break through is to, like Trump, say outrageous things and be very loud, or like Carson, say outrageous things.

In referring to a poll taken in Iowa, Trump called The Des Moines Register a third-rate newspaper and described Bloomberg News as a company against him because its founder and namesake, Michael Bloomberg, has indicated a desire to run for president in the past. “Right now it’s not very scientific,” he said Tuesday of the polls. Because Trump turned his unearned (and substantial) trust fund into a fortune, people assume he knows about these things, so he ought to perform well. During rallies in Florida over the weekend and in New Hampshire on Monday, Trump referred to reporters as scum and liars who were out to get his campaign. Even if he drops out tomorrow — and he won’t — Trump already has played a major role in driving Scott Walker from the contest and in weakening Jeb Bush’s chances. He also raised questions about Carson’s religious faith and has started to highlight what he says are contradictions in his record and policy positions.

Everyone has a bad day, and these guys’ bad days (of which there are many in recent months) will be documented ad nauseum in a way they weren’t even eight years ago. Former Senator Bob Dole, the 1996 GOP nominee, previously lost as the vice-presidential nominee in 1976 and made failed presidential runs in 1980 and 1988. Expressing dismay at his apparent drop in support among evangelical Christians, Trump repeatedly touted his faith, telling evangelicals in the audience: “I am the real deal.” Trump also shook up his usual rally format, taking questions from those in the crowd. But politics ain’t beanbag, and it’s hard to believe voters will be turned on by politicians complaining about how voters don’t like them as much as they should.

Roger Stone, a former adviser who has known the candidate for decades, blamed Carson’s soaring numbers on aggressive early-state advertising, and said they show it’s time for Trump to open his wallet finally and get on the air. “The campaign has entered a new phase and I think that Donald needs to be up on television with a positive message outlining the very themes that drove him to number one in the polls,” said Stone, who said that Trump should be flooding the airwaves in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Those who killed the convention process and installed primary contests as the decider claimed the new format would ensure that the “will” of the people could prevail. I keep waiting for Republican voters to notice that Carson doesn’t know what he’s talking about, but it’s clear by now that this isn’t a liability in the GOP. The Democratic Party’s connection to the defeated Confederacy, which had seceded from a Republican-led United States, made it a certain national loser until the Depression of 1873.

The formula produced five successful Republican non-incumbent winners: Rutherford Hayes in 1876; James Garfield in 1880; William McKinley in 1896; William Howard Taft in 1908 and Warren G. He recently went after Trump on CNN, saying Trump “has not proven an understanding of these issues or the preparation necessary to be commander-in-chief of the most powerful military force in the world.” Rubio did reasonably well in the first two debates. Primaries gave the Democrats former Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter in 1976, former Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton in 1992 and Senator Barack Obama in 2008. Apparently Paul plans to filibuster the new debt ceiling bill, which is a nice publicity stunt and something I expect him to champion tonight, but I doubt that will impress anyone watching tonight. REUTERS/Lucy Nicholson As the bosses would know, these tickets could carry the Buckeye State, the Sunshine State and the 24 others won by Romney in 2012.

His flair for the dramatic has kept him in the headlines and his ability to appeal to evangelicals and Tea Party supporters means he’s not going anywhere anytime soon. Lately, however, he’s become more aggressive. “I’ve about had it with these people,” Kasich said at a rally in Ohio recently. “We got one candidate that says we ought to abolish Medicaid and Medicare.

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