8 things I know about the 2016 presidential race on the eve of the third GOP …

28 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Ben Carson, Beating All Comers.

In his latest campaign ad, Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio tasks his campaign staff with getting the latest scoop on Cruz, Bush and Carson, and based on the amount of energy he pours into his fantasy football team, I’m thinking he just became the clear front-runner.Ben Carson, the soft-spoken former neurosurgeon, has for the first time knocked repellent loudmouth Donald Trump out of the top spot in the Republican nomination race.

On Tuesday, the billionaire alluded to polls showing him in second in Iowa, asking an audience in the state to do him “a favor” to help him win in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. — Ben Carson enters Wednesday night’s third GOP presidential debate with a surge of momentum, ensuring the soft-spoken retired neurosurgeon will face heightened attention from rivals in need of a breakout moment three months before primary voting begins. According to a poll released by CBS News/New York Times on Tuesday, Carson, now at 26 per cent, is four points ahead of Trump at 22 per cent, while the other GOP presidential hopefuls languish in the single digits.

I promise you: I will do such a good job.” But this time, the former Atlantic City casino mogul arrived after four polls in the last week showed him losing his lead in the polls there to retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson. To steal a line from Greg Abbott, San Fran’s line has more holes than the Mexican border, and Bush — hampered by injuries and playing second fiddle to featured back Carlos Hyde — still hasn’t found the end zone this season. A New York Times/CBS News survey released Tuesday also showed him trailing Carson 26 to 22 percent nationally — his first time in three months that he wasn’t leading a nationwide poll. Since Donald Trump fell behind him in Iowa polls, Trump has been aggressively jabbing his rival for his speaking style and raising questions about his Seventh-day Adventist faith. Perhaps just as important as respondents’ first choices right now are their second and third choices, not to mention their last choices — that is, the candidates for whom they almost certainly will not vote.

The apparent popularity of his ideas seemed to induce echoes from other candidates, including Jeb Bush who dropped the pejorative “anchor babies” when discussing the issue of illegal immigration, and former candidate Scott Walker, who said he was open to the idea of building a wall to separate Canada and the United States. To get a full picture of the Republican electorate, The Upshot created an experiment with two social scientists — Barry Nalebuff and Alan Gerber, both at Yale — and the survey team at Google. Carson’s appeal is obvious: he grew up poor in a single-parent household from the age of eight, raised by a mother with only a third grade education. But his slip in Iowa has prompted some speculation among Republicans that the tide could be turning against the bombastic real estate mogul, and a weak performance Wednesday could reinforce that view. That data then allows us to examine the field in many iterations, including head-to-head matchups and various scenarios in which some candidates drop out.

Slower-than-expected fundraising has led Bush to cut spending and overhaul his campaign structure, and he’s voiced frustration with the way the unusual race has progressed. Carson then starting writing weekly columns for the Washington Times and giving regular speeches, including one at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2013, where he ripped into President Barack Obama who was sitting mere feet away. First, the split between outsider candidates like Ben Carson and Donald Trump and insider candidates is not as clean as it may seem. (My colleague Nate Cohn made some related points recently.) Roughly 35 percent of likely voters whose first choice is Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio list Mr.

He has since earned the reputation as a sharp, straight-talking conservative commentator, while still looking as if he’s popped two Xanax each time he steps up to the mic. The political rookies appealing to voter anger with Washington have ceded no ground, and establishment politicians are still waiting for the race to turn their way — and increasingly wondering if it ever will. Carson partially conceded to Trump’s anti-vaccination garbage in a GOP debate in September, saying that we ought to spread out children’s vaccine schedules But style, needless to say, is not equal to substance. Trump then told the crowd his poll numbers actually aren’t that bad and reminded them that he is leading his 14 GOP rivals — including New Jersey Gov.

Indeed, Carson’s soft-spoken hypocrisy echoes loudest when he pontificates about science: he’s a medical doctor, after all, who in 2012, said that Darwin came up with the theory of evolution because he was encouraged by the devil. Carson has also attacked Planned Parenthood for donating aborted fetal tissue for medical research, though he himself conducted research on aborted fetuses for a paper published in 1992. It’s not just Carson’s unabashed duplicity when it comes to matters of science, but also his shattering deafness in the face of a wide variety of social and political issues.

He said that if Jews had guns they might have prevented the Holocaust, which is both mind-bogglingly one-dimensional and historically meaningless, especially as a contemporary argument against gun control. His campaign has started running new television advertisements in early voting states that center on his experience as a doctor and highlight his status as a political outsider.

With the help of Google Consumer Surveys, which samples individuals who respond to surveys to gain access to premium content on selected websites, we surveyed 6,072 people who report themselves as being either very likely to or will definitely vote in a Republican primary. He has argued that he would cut off federal funding to universities housing “extreme political bias,” declining to elaborate on how the government would monitor and/or identify “extreme bias,” or how his plan doesn’t constitute a gross violation of free speech, and he compared abortion to slavery in arguing that it should be made illegal in all cases, including rape.

And still, one of his most stunning responses came when he was asked if he was planning to meet the families of the victims of the recent mass shooting in Oregon; Carson replied that he was very busy but that he probably “would go to the next one.” At a certain point, gaffes are less “mistakes” than they are evidence. Our survey was taken Oct. 21-22 and we’ve weighted the Google survey results so that the participants match the age and gender balance seen in the 2012 Republican primary. On foreign policy, he’s said, “all options should remain on the table when dealing with international bullies,” such as Russian President Vladimir Putin. Indeed, when the room is quiet enough to hear what Ben Carson is actually saying, it becomes obvious that his ideas are just as logically inconsistent, logistically infeasible and occasionally, as grossly moronic as those of Donald Trump.

But his challenge Wednesday is less about highlighting his mastery of the issues and more about showing his supporters he has the temperament to fight through a long and grueling primary campaign. “You’ve got a guy here speaking from experience, speaking with knowledge about issues, speaking with a reasonable approach to matters,” said Pat Hickey, a Bush supporter from Nevada. “The problem, though, is, do those things seem to matter to the electorate?” With a well-funded super PAC standing by, Bush doesn’t appear to be on the brink of a campaign collapse. Rubio is generally stronger with Republican men than women, which is potentially a problem for a party that has recently struggled to win a large share of the female vote in general elections. We encourage readers to read that piece and to dig into the data for themselves. (You can find it here.) If you find something interesting, let us know, on Twitter, on Facebook or in the comments section below.

Google’s results generally appear quite close to those of other surveys, a Pew analysis found, and these results in particular resemble those from other recent polls of Republicans. (In 2012, as Nate Silver has noted, Google was actually more accurate than many traditional polls.) But we would caution against putting too much weight on small differences among candidates. Instead of just asking for their first choice, asking likely voters to rank their choices provides a fundamentally richer insight into the true will of the people.

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