Antiestablishmentarianism: Bernie Sanders, Donald Trump Surge in New Iowa Poll

31 Aug 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Carr: Poll pegs Hillary Clinton’s, Jeb Bush’s problems.

The Democratic presidential front-runner’s favorable rating is down to 39% in a recent Quinnipiac poll, from as high as 48% earlier this year. Presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders provided dueling messages highlighting the nation’s stark revenue inequality, a unifying theme that emerged as they and different hopefuls appeared Friday of their first joint outing earlier than a whole lot of prime Democrats gathered in Minneapolis for the Democratic Nationwide Committee’s summer time assembly.Consider the top three words voters used to describe her in a new poll this week: “Liar … dishonest … untrustworthy.” Also in the top 12: “crook … untruthful … criminal … deceitful.” Crook — as in “I am not a crook,” a quintessential Nixon quote.For Democrats across the country, notably including Hillary Clinton, suspense is growing while Joe Biden decides whether to enter his party’s presidential primary.Amid the controversy over her email system and speculation over Vice President Biden entering the race, Hillary Clinton is facing an intangible — but, analysts say, very real — political crisis: the enthusiasm gap.

Clinton, in a rousing speech punctuated by a number of standing ovations and chants of “Hillary!” advised the gang that, “Elevating incomes and supporting households is the defining financial problem of our time.” Shifting swiftly from one matter to the subsequent, the previous secretary of state proclaimed the Reasonably priced Care Act “right here to remain” and stated that if advocating for equal pay and ladies’s well being “is enjoying the gender card, deal me in.” Sanders, the unbiased senator from Vermont who has drawn document crowds throughout the nation, referred to as for a “political revolution” that may convey the disaffected into the electoral course of. During a recent conference call with Democratic National Committee members, the vice president explained that he and his family, stricken by the death of his son Beau, are trying to determine “whether there is the emotional fuel at this time to run . . .

In his trademark easy however forceful talking fashion, Sanders gripped the rostrum as he stated, “that turnout, that enthusiasm, won’t occur with politics as standard. I have to be able to commit to you that I would be able to give it my whole heart and my whole soul.” Surely Biden will need great resilience to embark on a grueling primary schedule in the wake of personal tragedy. Clinton remains the first choice of 37 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, while sanders is the pick for 30 percent, according to the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll released Saturday. “It looks like what people call the era of inevitability is over,” said Pollster J.

He will also need money, organization, consultants, endorsements and all the other elements of a national campaign that would be difficult to assemble only months before primaries and caucuses begin. In the August a year before his re-election, President Obama’s approval rating stood at 40%, the low point of his presidency, according to Gallup; the same month in 1995, Clinton’s husband, Bill Clinton, was at 46%, 12 points lower than shortly after he was re-elected. Nobody should run for elected office at any level, the late New York governor often said, without an argument that compels voters to rally behind his or her candidacy.

A lot of the free associations with Trump are ambiguous, depending on the connotation either positive or negative: “businessman … ego … rich … showman.” Plus, the fact that he’s “bombastic” and “brash” — that definitely would not have been considered a negative among the crowd Friday night in Norwood at Ernie Boch Jr.’s. As a two-term vice president, former senator and congressman, Biden has ample qualifications, and his political orientation is well within the American mainstream. Bernie Sanders is a rock star, as is gadfly Republican front-runner Donald Trump, both of whom are filling thousands of seats on the road — much like Barack Obama in the 2008 race. “I think you see a certain amount of exhaustion amongst Democrats and a certain amount of Clinton fatigue,” said Jeanne Zaino, political science professor at Iona College, who says the drip-drip of email revelations have “taken their toll” and it is reflecting in the crowd sizes as well as poll numbers. Biden captured 14 percent of the vote, way ahead of candidates Martin O’Malley with 3 percent, Jim Webb at 2 percent, and Lincoln Chafee at 1 percent. It wasn’t so much a speech Trump delivered as a routine — he was working the front rows like a stand-up comic, free-associating, falling back every now and then on what have become familiar punch lines, his greatest hits.

On Thursday at Case Western Reserve University in the battleground state of Ohio, Clinton spoke to a crowd of an estimated 2,800 people in an outdoor “commit to vote” rally, the first for her campaign outside the key primary/caucus states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Sanders’ poll numbers are also being buoyed by a group of voters similar to the ones attracted to President Obama in 2008: young people, liberals and first-time caucus-goers.

Biden would find himself behind in the states that hold the first contests and carry outsize influence in the nomination fight. “There is a path, but it is narrow and requires a lot to break Biden’s way,” said Dan Pfeiffer, a former senior political adviser to President Barack Obama. Clearly there are strong arguments weighing against his candidacy, or else Biden — who has thought of himself as presidential material since he first ran for the job in 1988 — would have declared many months ago. It’s a long view of the former first lady’s polling data that explains why it’ll take far more adversity before Clinton and her allies sense real danger. Jim Webb had been scheduled to talk, however bowed out late, saying he wanted to take his daughter to school. “The Republicans stand earlier than the nation, malign our president’s document of achievements, denigrate ladies and immigrant households, double-down on trickle-down, and inform their false story,” O’Malley stated. “We reply with crickets, tumbleweeds and a cynical transfer to delay and restrict our personal get together debates.” The DNC earlier this yr set the variety of debates at six — a transfer O’Malley has stated was calculated to profit Clinton.

The state’s caucuses, set for Feb. 1, reward candidates able to mobilize voters, getting them to turn out for caucus sessions that can last well into cold winter evenings. Most important is the shadow of his longtime friend and colleague Clinton, the durable frontrunner who enjoys the overwhelming support of Democrats in most national polls. Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll, says this is likely designed that way, “because she is very good in small venues and not so much in big ones.” For example, she chose to unveil her college affordability plan to an audience of about 600 at Exeter High School in New Hampshire on Aug. 10. That’s particularly true as the summer comes to a close, voter interest in the election perks up and Republicans prepare to grill her before a House special committee on Benghazi on Oct. 22.

Clinton’s campaign has been building a network of volunteers since she entered the race in April and now has about four dozen paid organizers and 11 offices set up. But Clinton’s numbers have suddenly fallen below 50% in some recent surveys, such as Quinnipiac’s national poll last week, when Biden’s name was included as a contender. On Aug. 6, she jazzed up an estimated 300 supporters in a packed nightclub in Denver, and on Aug. 18, held a town meeting in a Las Vegas community center that drew an estimated 300. One could also derive inauspicious signs from her current favorability numbers given that both Bill Clinton and Obama stayed above 50% the year before they were re-elected. Chafee at one level famous he had gone 30 years in public life and not using a scandal. “That’s not straightforward in Rhode Island,” he stated.

Barney Frank summed it up when he said that your base isn’t the people who are with you when you’re right, it’s the people who are with you when you’re wrong. The paradox for Biden is that his political viability rests upon traits that he shares with Clinton as a center-left politician, an experienced statesman and a central figure in the Obama administration. Clinton’s problem forward of Friday’s occasion was whether or not she might excite progressives and others inside her social gathering who’ve criticized her marketing campaign as lackluster and overly cautious.

While Biden and Clinton have disagreed in some internal foreign policy debates, there is no way for him to exploit those differences without embarrassing President Obama. In a pair of appearances in Portland, Ore., and Los Angeles in August alone, he attracted an estimated 55,000 people. “I hardly see any liberal enthusiasm for [Clinton], and they are concerned she could even drag down the entire ticket,” charged Richard Viguerie, longtime conservative media strategist, who blames the energy lag on Clinton’s political “baggage” and her demeanor, which he claims has never been “warm and fuzzy.” Michael Cohen, a Boston Globe columnist, disagrees, calling the “enthusiasm gap” a creation of media boredom during the dog days of summer. “I don’t think it much matters what is happening in August,” he told “I think it’s hard for anyone to get excited about politics right now.

All of a sudden people are saying she is in trouble and I just don’t see any evidence of that.” “She has the support,” Democratic strategist Doug Schoen told, “but she needs to get a message and to communicate a campaign strategy to mobilize and excite the Democratic base.” Does she have the tools light a fire under this base? “That’s an open question,” Schoen said. To boot, several are already in negative territory, including Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Trump, who, despite leading GOP polls, has the highest unfavorable rating of all at 54%. Not in a primary: She is arguably more progressive than Biden — and her candidacy inspires hope that she could become America’s first female President.

But even squared against this time in 2007, Clinton’s crowds don’t hold a candle to those of Obama, who was drawing huge audiences of exuberant, mostly young, supporters. Much of the decline in Clinton’s favorability comes from people who would never vote for her anyway — Republicans and Republican-leaning voters who identify as independent, says Witt. Clinton additionally sought to distinction her candidacy sharply with that of the 17 Republican presidential candidates. “Not one in every of them had a single phrase to say about find out how to make school extra reasonably priced … no options for skyrocketing prescription drug prices.

On Sept. 27, 2007, Obama set a record for that early stage of the Democratic primary, filling Washington Square Park in New York City with an estimated 24,000 people. No guarantees to finish the period of mass incarceration or say clearly and loudly, black lives matter,” Clinton stated of her GOP rivals, echoing the decision of civil rights activists.

I hope Quinnipiac or somebody follows up this with word-association questions about some of the other candidates, although at this point what’s the point of inquiring about Gov. From March — before she officially announced her campaign and when her use of the private email account first surfaced — through August, Quinnipiac found her unfavorable rating increased from six to 11%. “What you’re seeing is, well, Republicans don’t like her,’’ said Witt. Whereas the tremendous delegates usually are not sure by any commitments made to a candidate earlier than subsequent summer time’s conference, they’re extremely wanted by presidential hopefuls. On Hillary, I never realized how many pejoratives there are to describe a real-life Nurse Ratched, and I’m not even talking about the obvious ones like “cankles” “white-trash” and “wide-load.”

Yet he runs slightly ahead of her against potential Republican nominees — apparently because independent voters believe Biden to be more honest and trustworthy than Clinton. On the e-mails, Clinton informed reporters — as she has prior to now — “I didn’t ship or obtain categorized materials” by way of the personal server. Conason is editor-in-chief of The National Memo and the author of “The Hunting of the President: The Ten-Year Campaign to Destroy Bill and Hillary Clinton.”

When you’re setting up a statewide organization, it’s really important to get that started.” Eight days after the Iowa caucuses, New Hampshire holds the nation’s first primary. Viguerie told that Sanders and Trump are “change” candidates who are stealing the show because they are appealing to voters angry and frustrated with the status quo. Clinton in the state, gaining traction by dint of a populist message that couples red-meat attacks on the “billionaire class” with calls for higher taxes on wealthy Americans. The Biden family likes to vacation in South Carolina, and he has made repeated trips to the state as vice president, including a February visit in which he touted the need to improve roadways in the company of a popular local congressman, James Clyburn. Biden might cut into her lead among black voters, “but he’s not going to flip it on its head the way Barack Obama did.” March 1 is “Super Tuesday.” With 11 states voting, it is impractical for candidates to make headway through the type of retail campaigning that plays to Mr.

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