Donald Trump heads back to Iowa, where Ben Carson is surging

27 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Alert: Ben Carson Actually Beat Donald Trump in a National Poll.

Don’t call Donald Trump the undisputed Republican front-runner anymore. What had seemed an improbability is now an increasingly plausible reality: a new nationwide poll released on Tuesday morning revealed that for the first time in months, Donald Trump is not leading the G.O.P. pack, being knocked out of first place by Dr.A slew of new polls show retired doctor Ben Carson definitively knocking Donald Trump from his number one spot atop the Republican presidential nominating contest in Iowa – and the billionaire real estate mogul is puzzled as to why that’s the case. “I don’t get it,” Trump said on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” Tuesday morning. “I’m going there [to Iowa] actually today and I have tremendous crowds and I have tremendous love in the room, and you know, we seem to have hit a chord. John Sununu said Tuesday that billionaire businessman Donald Trump and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson would be “another Obama” if elected president and that the two candidates “are really entertainment at this point.” Mr.

The CBS/New York Times poll, which surveyed 575 likely Republican primary voters from across the nation, saw the retired neurosurgeon take 26 percent of likely voters, besting the former reality-show host, who took 22 percent. But he sagely warns: “That being said, people in this poll have considered every flap of a bird’s wing in Iowa or New Hampshire to signify the end of Trump, and we’ve been wrong every time.” “Carson emerges as the candidate to beat in Iowa. Sununu had been asked about polling that shows the two men way ahead of the rest of the 2016 GOP field, and he said that voters are now starting to look at issues and predicted a shift would take place over the next month or two. “If this doesn’t change, I acknowledge it’s a real problem for the party, and it’s a real problem because neither Trump or Carson have no real sense of what the presidency is,” Mr. Sununu said on CNN’s “New Day.” “They would be, in my opinion, another Obama.” “They would come to the presidency with seductive rhetoric, without understanding the responsibility, without understanding the role of the United States as the last superpower, without understanding how to cope with the difficult issues internationally, and we would have a second disastrous presidency,” said Mr. So I’m a little bit surprised.” In fact, Trump was so worried about his standing in Iowa that he blamed an intern for a retweet suggesting that Carson’s Iowa supporters had “too much #Monsanto in the #corn creat[ing] issues in the brain.” (Considering Trump’s own corn-silk hair, the same question could be asked of him.) Perhaps their brains were altered by a higher power rather than genetically modified agriculture: the general consensus is that Carson’s religious beliefs and soft-spoken ways appeal to evangelical voters, a huge voting bloc in Iowa. (Trump, it can be said, is not known for either of those qualities.)

Considered a shoo-in six months ago, he had an uninspiring third-quarter raising “hard cash” from individual donors (as opposed to the “soft cash” that political committees rake in). Bush. “And I think the Republican electorate has to begin to understand that leading in public is not the same as leading in the private sector, or leading without experience,” he said. “We had a terrible presidency that we’re going through now. With Carson surpassing Trump, the contours of the Republican primary battle may now begin to resemble the 2012 contest, when a series of long-shot candidates led the polls through much of 2011.

Bush recalibrates to save his campaign.” Despite Jeb Bush’s troubles — he announced last week that he is downsizing his campaign staff to conserve funds — he did not drop in our rankings, in part because he remains bunched in a second tier where nobody has made a move up. Trump argued on “Morning Joe” that the recent polls – which he usually points to repeatedly on the campaign trail when he’s ahead – weren’t necessarily scientific. “I believe in polls, I generally believe in polls. Those voters are less impressed with nuanced arguments from establishment types on topics like illegal immigration, which Mr Trump has made his signature issue.

I think it’s very hard when you have this many.” He later added, however, that “ I think they say something – at least they spot a trend.” Trump continued to attack Carson on a number of issues, including his flip-flop last week on Medicare and what Trump characterized as a “pro-abortion” past. Self-identified conservative Republicans (69% of Pew’s survey) take an even harder line, and it is with this group that Mr Trump is staking his claim, for good reason. Trump insisted “a lot of things will come out” about his rival and that “one thing I know about a front-runner: you get analyzed 15 different ways from China.”

However, this group includes a large swathe of evangelical Christians, who don’t always see eye-to-eye with Mr Trump but like Mr Carson’s religious bent. For example, Emory University professor Andra Gillespie said, “Looking ahead, it will be interesting to see if Mike Huckabee can generate any additional support in the polls as a result of the earned media he is getting for supporting Kim Davis in Kentucky.” Davis is the Kentucky county clerk who went to jail rather than issuing marriage licenses to gay couples.

During an hour-long speech at a packed-out rally in Burlington, Iowa, on October 21st, he spoke of his “strong movement”, which used to be called the silent majority, but is “not silent” anymore. Republicans may eventually get bored with him, and come the winter they will focus laserlike on choosing the candidate who can best beat Hillary Clinton, the Democrat front-runner. And the second GOP debate is Sept. 16, which could seal the fate of some of the lower-tier candidates. “Is there a rank lower than 17?” asks former Democratic congressman Dan Maffei. He notes that Jeb Bush is benefiting from the fact that none of the other candidates with political experience has managed to generate a lot of enthusiasm.

Also, cooler heads warn against getting excited just yet. “After months of campaigning and media coverage, this race is just beginning,” said Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report. “There is a long time between now and February, when people start making real choices.”

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