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27 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Poll: Ben Carson Pulls Ahead Of Donald Trump In Race For GOP Nomination.

NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) — Ben Carson has pulled ahead of Donald Trump and is now at the top of the field in the race for the Republican nomination, according to the latest national CBS News/New York Times poll.Donald Trump dinged fellow presidential candidate Ben Carson on Tuesday for his Medicaid and Medicare proposals, minutes after a national Republican poll came out showing the retired neurosurgeon leading him for the first time. In the CBS/New York Times poll, Trump trails Carson 26 percent to 22 percent, well within the margin of error and well above the next closest competitor, Florida Sen. But although the PredictIt prediction market has given the establishment candidates, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush, better probabilities than the insurgents of winning the nomination, Republican grandees are increasingly jittery about Mr Bush’s chances.

But while more than half of Trump voters say their minds are made up about their support, 79 percent of Carson’s voters say they could change their minds. “The thing with these polls is they’re all so different, they’re coming from all over the lot where one guy is up here and somebody else is up there or you see swings of 10 and 12 points, immediately even the same say,” Trump said Tuesday on MSNBC in response to Carson’s surge in Iowa polls. “So right now, it’s not very scientific. Considered a shoo-in six months ago, he had an uninspiring third-quarter raising “hard cash” from individual donors (as opposed to the “soft cash” that political committees rake in). I think it’s very hard when you have this many, but overall I am a believer in polls, I think they say something, at least they spot a trend.” Marco Rubio is in third place at 8 percent followed by Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina, who are both at 7 percent. In this two-person race, Trump was asked why Republican voters should pick him over Carson, who had prevailed in four straight Iowa polls before Tuesday morning’s results. “Because I will make the best trade deals, I will be strongest and best on the military, I will get rid of Obamacare. You know, Ben wants to knock out Medicare, I heard that over the weekend,” Trump remarked on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” an apparent reference to a recent POLITICO article on Carson’s health policies. “I think abolishing Medicare, I don’t think you’re going to get away with that one.” In an interview with “Fox News Sunday” earlier this week, Carson defended his proposal to unwind the two popular programs and replace them with savings accounts.

Those voters are less impressed with the nuances from establishment types on topics like illegal immigration, which Mr Trump has made his signature issue. We’ll have to see,” he remarked, adding, “One thing I know about a front-runner, you get analyzed 15 different ways from China, and a lot of things will come out.”

Self-identified conservative Republicans (69% of Pew’s survey) take an even harder line, and it is with this group that Mr Trump is staking his claim, for good reason. However, this group includes a large swathe of evangelical Christians, who don’t always see eye-to-eye with Mr Trump but like Mr Carson’s religious bent. During an hour-long speech at a packed-out rally in Burlington, Iowa, on October 21st, he spoke of his “strong movement”, which used to be called the silent majority, but is “not silent” anymore. Republicans may eventually get bored with him, and come the winter they will focus laserlike on choosing the candidate who can best beat Hillary Clinton, the Democratic front-runner.

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