Iowa poll: After New Hampshire, Trump takes second place

1 Jul 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Christie has the worst favorability ratings in new poll of Iowa Republicans.

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker continues to lead prospective and declared 2016 Republican presidential candidates in Iowa, although his support is shrinking, a Quinnipiac University poll shows. A new poll of Republicans in Iowa has Governor Christie with the worst favorability ratings in a crowded field of presidential candidates, and with just 1 percent of likely caucus participants saying they would vote for him.

An Iowa presidential poll conducted back in April by the Partnership for a New American Economy, a group that advocates for immigration reform, shows that the actual views of Republican caucus goers on the hot-button issues may be different than you might expect. In an election season where there will likely be at least 16 Republican candidates, the survey reveals numerous contenders bunched behind Walker, whose support in the poll has dropped to 18 percent from 21 percent in May and 25 percent in February. Scott Walker leading the GOP caucuses in neighboring Iowa — but with a slight decrease in support that suggests the first presidential nominating contest on the 2016 calendar remains wide open. The New Jersey governor’s campaign, official launched on Tuesday, has put a higher priority on the New Hampshire primary that the caucuses in Iowa, where voters are more conservative and the record Christie built in a heavily Democratic state does not play as well.

Chris Christie is staking his campaign on New Hampshire, not Iowa, because he’s getting buried in the Midwest state with the first contest of the presidential race, according to today’s latest poll. When likely caucus goers were asked if they would be willing to support a candidate for President who supports a multi-step approach to granting illegal immigrants legal status, 81 percent of respondents said yes. Jockeying for second place are billionaire Donald Trump and retired surgeon Ben Carson, tied at 10 percent; Senators Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ted Cruz of Texas, tied at 9 percent; former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, at 8 percent; and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, at 7 percent.

Quinnipiac University says its June 20 to 29 poll of 666 likely participants in the Iowa caucus measures Christie at 1 percent, putting him in 15th place out of 16 candidates. The perception of the Iowa Republican presidential caucuses is that they are typically dominated by staunch conservatives, yet the results of this poll that focuses on the immigration issues paints a much different picture on this particular issue. While Walker sits eight points ahead of the field, the rest of the fray of Republican White House hopefuls is tightly packed within the poll’s margin of error. But his decline in more pronounced from a Quinnipiac poll in February of this year, in which Walker led the next-closest competitor with a quarter of the vote.

George Pataki. “We knew that he was going to write off Iowa, but it does mean that New Hampshire is critical,” said Montclair State University political scientist Brigid Harrison. “Just watching how the campaign operated, a lot of it has been invested in New Hampshire. Just 5 percent of the likely caucus-goers say they could not vote for him – compared with 28 percent for Trump and 24 percent for former Florida Gov. With so many candidates in the race, 18 percent might be enough to win Iowa’s caucuses, scheduled now to take place Feb. 1, but the latest Quinnipiac survey shows how fluid the race is at this point: For one thing, as the field grows, Walker’s share is declining.

The two-term governor has said he plans to announce his presidential intentions the week of July 13, making him among the last to formally enter the race. Ohio’s governor is viewed favorably by 20 percent and unfavorably by 11 percent – the other 69 percent haven’t heard enough about him to form an opinion. Even when told that it would cost taxpayers an estimated $400 to $600 billion dollars and up to 20 years to deport the 11 million undocumented immigrants, only 5 percent would change their position.

Christie is also the most unpopular Republican presidential candidate among the likely Iowa caucus goers, with 59 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression of him. Trump, who establishment Republicans have nervously watched since his June 16 entry into the race, may have soaked up some of the support that others might have enjoyed. Huckabee and Rubio both dropped 6 percentage points since the May survey. “As even more candidates toss their hats into the ring, the race has gotten even more muddled,” Peter A.

The pollsters dubbed it the “no way” question: the exact wording asked respondents to name the candidate they “would definitely not support” for the Republican presidential nomination. Now at 10% in the Quinnipiac poll, a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll that came two weeks before his announcement — and gave Walker the lead with a similar 17% — had Trump checking with just 4% of support.

But like in other polls, voters who don’t support Trump are making it clear that they’re not going to change their minds according to Wednesday’s Quinnipiac survey. This current polling data suggests that, over time, Iowa Republicans have become more open to supporting a number of steps that would address the country’s illegal immigration problem. He also scores high on personality questions: 71 percent say he’s honest and trustworthy, 75 percent say he has strong leadership qualities, and 71 percent say he cares about their needs and problems.

For now, the polling from April shows that more people care about taxes, government spending, foreign policy, national security, and jobs and the economy. But he can’t ignore Iowa either,” Redlawsk said. “As for New Hampshire he should get an announcement bump for the time being, but it’s a long way until February.” Christie officially declared his candidacy for president Tuesday in Livingston, then immediately headed to New Hampshire for five days of campaigning. Supreme Court rulings on same-sex marriage and Obamacare subsidies, it’s safe to assume that immigration policy is currently on the back burner, and it could stay that way for a while. In 2012, Michele Bachmann took a hardline approach on immigration and used it to contrast herself to Texas Governor Rick Perry in late summer and fall of 2011. He wins 21 percent of caucusgoers who say they’re “very conservative,” but he also captures 18 percent of “somewhat conservative” and 12 percent of “moderate” or “liberal” voters.

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