Jeb Bush’s crucial debate

28 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Climate Change Ad to Air During Republican Debate.

Jeb Bush knew the high political stakes he faced in the first two Republican presidential debates: Prove he could be the establishment favorite. While millions will watch the third Republican presidential debate on TV, just 1,000 people will get tickets to see the event in person in the massive Coors Events Center on the scenic University of Colorado campus in Boulder. “The way it was explained to us by CNBC is the event is meant for a TV audience, not so much for a live audience,” said Ryan Lynch, the executive director of the Colorado Republican Party, which will get 200 tickets to split among party donors and elected officials.NextGen Climate, the outside group founded by the billionaire environmentalist and philanthropist Tom Steyer, is airing an ad on CNBC — the business network hosting the debate — during the prime-time face-off Wednesday that will cast climate change as an economic issue. “Tomorrow’s debate will focus on the economy — and it’s hard to ignore the biggest threat to our economy: climate change,” said Suzanne Henkels, spokeswoman for NextGen Climate. “We’ve seen the G.O.P. candidates use the economy as an excuse for dodging questions on climate change, but in fact not addressing climate change would cost us $44 trillion in lost global G.D.P.” The ad opens with black-and-white footage of moments of American achievement, as a narrator says: “America has never been a country of quitters.Welcome to The Lid, your afternoon dose of the 2016 ethos… John Kasich ripped into his GOP rivals on Tuesday, saying he has “had it with these people.” Which could certainly make for a pithy communications strategy: “Kasich 2016: #SMH, America.” Our big sibling publication First Read wrote this week that all eyes are on Jeb Bush heading into tomorrow’s debate, as the pressure grows on the onetime GOP frontrunner to turn around campaign momentum that’s been heading in the wrong direction. It’s not who we are.” “We don’t ignore threats like climate change — we face our problems head on,” the narrator continues, as images of everyday Americans, as well as wind farms, scroll by. “With American-made clean energy, we can end our dependence on foreign oil, spark new innovation and create millions of new jobs.” This month, NextGen Climate announced a seven-figure ad campaign urging the 2016 presidential candidates to commit to achieving 50 percent clean energy by 2030.

But – especially after days of the drumbeat about Ben Carson’s new spot at the top of the GOP field, the former neurosurgeon is also going to be in the hotseat like he hasn’t been before. And during the 2014 cycle, the group spent about $100 million to try to influence several key Senate and governor’s races, where climate change was expected to play a significant role.

The school has also organized a watch party for students. “At that point, you know, [the candidates] could be half a mile away at the Coors Center or hundreds of miles away in D.C. and it would make no difference,” said Estevez-Miller. “We think it’ll be a great opportunity for the community, the economic impact, the branding for CU and for Boulder,” said university spokesman Ryan Huff. “I think that will inspire some people to apply who maybe have never heard of our university before or want to learn more about it.” There’s also the question of why famously liberal Boulder, where 70 percent of voters backed Barack Obama over Mitt Romney in 2012, would host this debate. “You know if you look at the voter registration, Boulder would lean left, but this was another event we could have to really broaden the kind of viewpoints for our students to hear,” said Huff. And while that trio can move forward without a big moment on the Colorado debate stage, a half-dozen long-shot candidates are facing even more pressure to break out or get out.

Chris Christie, Rand Paul, John Kasich, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, Rick Santorum and even Carly Fiorina need a big night if they’re hoping to keep running for long. Pundits judged after the debate that Carson generally fell short of those expectations, but which – perhaps predictably – didn’t put a dent in Carson’s upward trajectory.

He spent two days in Houston this week, accompanied by his father and brother, reassuring shaky financial donors that his campaign is built for the long run. Unlike CNN, which livestreamed the debates for free to anyone as a public service (and to get advertising online), CNBC won’t make this national political event available to non-cable subscribers. (Fox News similarly limited debate viewing availability to cable subscribers.) Are there alternatives?

Freshman Dylan Robinson-Ruett is registered as an independent and eager to vote for the first time in 2016 but said Republican organizers and CNBC are missing out on a chance to connect with students. “I mean obviously their focus is national, but they’re on our campus and I expected it to be more than a facade. This debate and the next one, in less than two weeks, are likely the last chances for a number of candidates to make a positive impression before the race begins to gel heading into the holiday season.

But the difference now is that Trump is no longer the undisputed frontrunner, and Carson will receive even more scrutiny from both the moderators and his rivals on stage. Who’s in: Candidates polling at 3 percent, according to CNBC’s criteria measured over a five-week window for determining eligibility, based on national polls by NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, CNN and Bloomberg. FIORINA: The Wall Street Journal reports that Carly Fiorina’s speaking firm sent prospective clients a message advertising that the former HP chief has “limited availability” for paid speeches even though she is running for president.

The same lineup as last time (minus Scott Walker): Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie and John Kasich. Bush’s advisers called Rubio a “GOP Obama” in a presentation to donors Monday night, the latest sign the governor may go after Rubio’s experience. “In the last 48 hours Trump is acting like a wounded animal with his poll numbers, so I think we’ll expect him to aggressively go after Carson,” said GOP strategist Brian Walsh. He recently took a dig at Carson’s religion, suggesting Seventh Day Adventism is outside mainstream Christianity, and on Tuesday all but promised he’d rip into Carson on the debate stage. The provost will consult with the deans and offer eight faculty members the opportunity to attend and invite four students to attend with each of the faculty members.

What he says, and how Carson responds, will go a long way in determining what trajectory the pair of surprising front-runners will be on going forward. “A lot of things will come out now and we’ll see how he holds up to the scrutiny,” Trump said Monday morning on MSNBC. “Ben’s got a lot of things in his past and we’ll see, we’ll see how he holds up.” Rubio and Sen. Some tickets will also be provided directly to the CU Student Government to distribute as they deem appropriate to students.” Organizers limited the number of tickets for students to a mere 100 in the 11,000-seat arena, then released 50 more when students and faculty protested. Ted Cruz of Texas, whose poll numbers have been slowly inching up, also need to show they’re ready for prime-time and will likely get more camera time — and face more scrutiny — than they have in the opening rounds. And while the big names will draw the most attention, it’s the others onstage — and who have been relegated to the earlier “kids table” debate — who may be the most desperate.

A panel of CNBC folks including On-Air Editor Rick Santelli, Senior Personal Finance Correspondent Sharon Epperson and Jim Cramer, host of “Mad Money,” will chime in. Jindal, Graham and Santorum may be running to prove a point rather than to be President and have small campaign teams that don’t put financial pressure on them to leave, but if they can’t capture enough attention to vault themselves onto the main debate stage, like Fiorina did, some of them might start wondering whether the campaign grind is worth it, too. “I don’t see anyone dropping out immediately with the next debate around the corner, but the opportunities for the lower-tier candidates are dwindling,” said Walsh. “If in a few weeks they’re not catching fire, I think you’ll see a handful of those candidates reevaluate those prospects.” Bush showed a feistier side over the weekend in South Carolina, telling voters, “If this election is about how we’re going to fight to get nothing done, then…I don’t want any part of it.” “I don’t want to be elected president to sit around and see gridlock just become so dominant that people literally are in decline in their lives. But voters frustrated with the GOP establishment have shown little interest so far in fine policy details. “The electorate is much more focused on its mood than on electing the next leader of the free world,” said Kevin Madden, a Republican strategist who hasn’t backed a candidate. Scott Walker, have bowed out.) Bush’s loyal backers acknowledge the recent campaign reality check but praise the candidate for making changes now, while there’s still time to adjust before the first ballots are cast in February. “The perception now is he is not the favorite, and he is the underdog,” said Ed Easton, a Bush fundraiser from Miami who attended the candidate’s Houston retreat (which Trump derided as Bush’s meeting “with Mommy and Daddy”). “I think that’s a benefit to Jeb.

I don’t recall Ben Carson, who is surging now, having a ‘Moment’ — uppercase. “Don’t get me wrong: You can’t get up there and wet your pants. But I’m not sure you can get the fundamentals in any lasting way in any of these debates.” Doug Corn, a Cincinnati financial adviser and past fundraiser for former President George W.

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