Republican 2016 race: Why it’s getting late early

31 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

CEO Daily: Saturday, October 31st.

Berra, a charter member of the Aphorism Hall of Fame, was referring to afternoon shadows gathering in Yankee Stadium’s left field. WASHINGTON: The Republican National Committee told NBC Friday it was suspending their broadcast partnership after the US network’s cable news subsidiary was accused of asking questions in “bad faith” during the party’s last presidential debate. “Pending further discussion between the RNC and our presidential campaigns, we are suspending the partnership with NBC News for the Republican primary debate at the University of Houston on Feb 26, 2016,” the committee’s chairman Reince Priebus wrote to NBC News chairman Andrew Lack. “The CNBC network is one of your media properties, and its handling of the debate was conducted in bad faith,” Priebus added, stressing that “we need to ensure there is not a repeat performance.” Candidates and observers admonished them for being too aggressive, straying off the announced topic of economics and finance, and pitting candidates against one another.

We’re talking about the fast approach of actual voting – next Tuesday marks the halfway point between the first GOP debate on Aug. 6 and the Feb. 1 Iowa caucuses. The move comes as several campaigns seek to change the format for the remaining debates due to concerns too many candidates are on stage and do not get enough time to speak. So in keeping with the uncharacteristic if qualified hopefulness that’s run through the past couple Saturday dispatches, we give you the case for why things could really, actually, finally be different in the House under newly-minted Speaker Paul Ryan. They pushed outsider candidates like Ben Carson and Donald Trump to explain ambitious plans to cut taxes and remove unauthorized immigrants, and they questioned plans from more establishment candidates like Sen. That means there’s no one person to rally around for the many GOP bigwigs – state party chairman, veteran donors, D.C.-based pundits – who oppose insurgent outsiders Donald Trump and Ben Carson.

Republicans were angered by what they characterized as petty, nonsubstantive questions by debate moderators Carl Quintanilla, Becky Quick and John Harwood designed to embarrass the candidates. Priebus told NBC in a letter that the committee wanted to ensure its candidates would be given a “full and fair” opportunity to lay out their political visions. As Mitt Romney’s 2012 running mate, Ryan was half of a ticket that won nearly 61 million votes nationwide. “I don’t think there’s another time in American history when somebody becomes Speaker who millions of people have already voted for and know in a way that most legislative people are never known.

Harwood asked Donald Trump whether he was running a “comic-book version of a presidential campaign.” Jeb Bush was asked to explain why his campaign was doing so poorly in the polls, Carly Fiorina was asked why Americans should hire her when she had been fired by Hewlett- Packard and Marco Rubio was asked if he should “slow down, get a few things done first” before running for president. As a lure back to the bargaining table, perhaps NBC “News” can offer the GOP candidates transportation to the next debate in special GM trucks — you know, the ones that NBC’s “Dateline” rigged up to explode, in yet another faked network news story. He’s a national political figure outside of and in addition to the institution.” That gives Ryan political leverage with recalcitrant members of his own conference never enjoyed by John Boehner, the consummate insider he’s replacing. Carl Quintanilla’s opening question was, “What is your biggest weakness?” It was a ridiculous way to start the debate — and the questions didn’t get that much better as the evening progressed.

That’s increased the pressure level of competition and made stumbles, such as Jeb Bush’s widely panned debate performance Wednesday night, seem more fraught. “What every Republican not in the outsiders’ tent is waiting for is some kind of consolidation in the ranks of the more mainstream candidates. In other words, some contenders in this large field who haven’t caught on must drop out,” write University of Virginia political scientists Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley in the post-debate edition of their Crystal Ball newsletter. Despite his youth — at 45, Ryan is the youngest Speaker in nearly 150 years — he calls on a rare depth of experience in the chamber: He started there as a staffer right out of college and was elected to the first of his nine terms at 28.

Christie wondered aloud why they were being asked about Fantasy Football competition when Islamic State militants are killing people in the Middle East. “This is a disappointing development. Because I used to watch CNBC, until I got tired of their dreary corporate puffery interspersed with leftist spin (the only exceptions being Rick Santelli and occasionally Larry Kudlow). During a rally Thursday in Nevada, Trump suggested that Republican debate moderators be required to prove that they vote Republican. “Why should we have these people that hate everything we stand for?” he asked. However, along with our debate broadcast partners at Telemundo we will work in good faith to resolve this matter with the Republican Party,” an NBC statement said. Ostensibly, the debate will focus on economic issues (which the CNBC one was supposed to do, as well, but didn’t), with Fox hosts Neil Cavuto and Maria Bartiromo along with WSJ Editor-in-Chief Gerard Baker.

Well, many political scientists subscribe to the “party decides” theory of primary contests, which holds that candidates need some degree of establishment support – and the money, expertise, and organization muscle that brings – to win a presidential nomination. In that, he’s unlike Boehner’s two previous would-be successors, Eric Cantor and Kevin McCarthy, both of whom vaulted into leadership in their second terms on the strength of their political fundraising.

The rules will allow any candidate who polls above 2.5 percent to participate; that is a low bar that serves no one’s interest but the fringe candidates’. If your only experience is in leadership, “you’re mostly thinking about competition with Democrats, either electorally or legislatively,” the lawmaker said. “Most members don’t live in that world. At least one campaign has suggested that instead of having 10 or 11 candidates on stage at the same time, that the group be split in two for two debates of 90 minutes each.

If the bar were raised to 5 percent, we’d have a real chance of seeing an actual debate, though it might mean Chris Christie, John Kasich, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee would be absent unless their numbers were to improve over the next week. Most members live in the world of their committee.” And Ryan, an ideologue who nonetheless has built a track record of working across the aisle, has pledged to return legislative agency to the committees — a move that should encourage his disaffected fringe to rejoin the process. Moral authority. “He didn’t want the damn job in the first place and everybody knows it.” That doesn’t mean he can count on everyone in his ranks to help, “but they’ll at least feel bad about not helping for a change.” There are a thousand ways this could go sideways.

But it might force him to make a decision about whether to continue his race, which has sucked up a lot of money that might be better redirected to a candidate who can inspire voters; yes, I’m thinking Marco Rubio. But it’s clear that most national Republican lawmakers and other GOP insiders believe that would lead to President Hillary Clinton and damage the party’s down-ticket prospects. His father was Richard Harwood, another extinguished scribe, for the Washington Post, a newspaper that had to give back a Pulitzer Prize for making stuff up. They’re looking to coalesce around a candidate for the establishment “lane” in the contest, whether they think that will actually decide the issue or not.

Forty-plus years later, his son is equally committed to torpedoing the truth on behalf of the status quo, even though the most corrupt regime ever is now a pack of baying moonbat Democrats. Rubio would continue to show his command of issues but have to face tough questions (if moderators are capable of asking them) on his economic policies. Things move quickly after that: The first-in-the-nation New Hampshire primary is Feb. 9, followed in short order by the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary. As he battles to maintain his position atop the polls he’s lead for months, Donald Trump is showcasing a different and somewhat unfamiliar persona on the stump.

Yet Carson called the question “propaganda.” Later, Quintanilla asked Rubio about his finances, from “a lack of bookkeeping skills” to concerns over his use of campaign and Florida Republican Party cash. Rubio’s response? “You just listed a litany of discredited attacks from Democrats and my political opponents, and I’m not gonna waste 60 seconds detailing them all.” But this is nonsense.

But the effort to accommodate the pressures of a campaign evolving as it heads into the critical stretch speak to the billionaire developer’s seriousness about his bid. By increasing the number of debates and vastly expanding the numbers of participants, we’ve diminished the value of debates to those who matter: the voters. Republican lawmakers are issuing endorsements at their slowest rate since at least 1980, according to data site FiveThirtyEight’s endorsement tracker.

Frustration with the RNC itself has been mounting among Republican presidential campaigns, who believe it’s done an inadequate job setting the terms of the debates with networks. Instead, he made a different point entirely—“In fact, the largest after-tax gains is for the people at the lower end of the tax spectrum under my plan.” And conservatives—taking Rubio’s side—accused Harwood of lying. When Cruz went on his anti-media rant, it was following a substantive question about his rhetoric and approach: “Congressional Republicans, Democrats, and the White House are about to strike a compromise that would raise the debt limit, prevent a government shutdown, and calm financial markets that fear of—another Washington-created crisis is on the way.

On top of the financial muscle Singer will lend to Rubio’s campaign, the support will likely accelerate the candidate’s effort to close establishment ranks around his bid while denying his former mentor, Jeb Bush. Bernie Sanders, but she’s pulled ahead of Senator Sanders in Iowa in recent polls, and she has comfortable leads in South Carolina and every Super Tuesday state except Sanders’s home of Vermont. The entire night, Republicans trafficked in half-truths and falsehoods, from Christie’s misleading claim that Social Security was bankrupt (which came directly after he promised to “be honest with the people watching at home”) to Carly Fiorina’s invented “fact” that “92 percent of the jobs lost during Barack Obama’s first term belonged to women.” Which brings us back to Priebus’ letter. The Democratic nomination race is likely to be effectively over by March, according to Norm Ornstein, a veteran governance scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. “The endorsement of Clinton by Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, a major figure on the populist left, shows the striking degree to which elected officials are rallying behind her – including, by the way, the governor of Vermont – in a fashion far more sweeping than, say, Walter Mondale in 1984 or Al Gore in 2000,” writes Mr.

Singer, the most generous Republican donor in the country last year, is also expected now to rally his broad and deep-pocketed network to Rubio’s cause. Trump can’t deport millions of immigrants; Carson can’t raise enough revenue to fund the federal government; and the “middle-class” tax plans of Bush, Rubio, and others shower most of their benefits on the rich.

If you combine their support, Trump and Carson together attract 49 percent of Republican voters, according to the latest RealClearPolitics rolling average of the race. After a disastrous performance at the third Republican debate on Wednesday night, the one-time GOP frontrunner’s campaign is in something of a tailspin.

Well, probably not – party insiders continue to insist that’s not going to happen (though they’re probably crossing their fingers as they do so). Governors Kasich and Christie are waiting for an opportunity that has yet to arrive, like soccer players lurking outside a scrum for the ball to bounce out.

Former Florida Governor Bush and Senator Rubio, also of Florida, are the top-polling establishment figures and direct rivals, as Bush’s misbegotten debate attack on Rubio’s Senate attendance showed. The alternative could be lengthy intramural warfare stretching through early 2016 and peaking prior to or even at the Republican Convention in Cleveland in July. Meanwhile, Clinton will have wrapped it up early and spend the spring and early summer raising money for the general election, pulling together all Democratic Party factions, and fine-tuning her themes for the fall campaign.

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