Ted Cruz gets early Christmas present in Iowa poll

22 Dec 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Cruz Catapults to Top in Iowa in New Poll, Leapfrogging Trump.

Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has a 10 point lead over Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, Bloomberg reported.Ted Cruz catapulted to frontrunner status in Iowa on Saturday night with a new poll showing the Texas senator with 31 percent of the GOP support in the state, 10 points ahead of Donald Trump’s 21 percent. In the new Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll, Cruz, considered the new evangelical favorite, leapfrogged the candidate he has continually avoided to cross paths with throughout the campaign.

Cruz’s 21-percentage-point jump since October is the largest surge between Iowa Polls recorded in at least the last five presidential caucus campaigns. Bryan English, Cruz’s Iowa state director, cautioned “this is just one poll,” but said the results are a testament to the resources the campaign has invested in Iowa as well as Cruz’s message. “From the beginning of this campaign, we’ve talked about uniting courageous conservatives to reignite the promise of America and keep our nation safe,” “We have more work to do, but we can definitively say the message is working.” Cruz’s rise marks a 21 percent improvement from the same poll taken in mid-October. The senator’s great leap forward comes largely at the expense of [Ben] Carson, as Iowa’s evangelicals appear to have picked the candidate they want to get behind.

The retired neurosurgeon, now barely in third-place, is supported by 13 percent, down from the first-place showing he posted in October, when he was at 28 percent. Marco Rubio in fourth place at 10 percent, and the poll has Jeb Bush found himself up slightly since October — 6 percent from 5 percent — leaving him in fifth place. The former Florida governor’s negatives are the highest among GOP candidates, with 54 percent of likely Republican caucus-goers viewing Bush unfavorably, Bloomberg said. Cruz dominates yet another gauge the poll takes of candidates’ strength, the “Selzer Score,” which uses multiple measures to try to assess potential upside in a crowded field. Cruz’s tactic runs in deep contrast to a Republican field that has struggled to gain traction despite efforts to knock Trump from the top of the polls.

But in the last two weeks, Cruz — Trump’s closest ally — took his first steps toward offering up a contrast to the wildcard candidate, saying two weeks ago in Iowa that he didn’t believe Trump would become president and that he “did not agree” with his plan to temporarily ban the immigration of Muslims into the U.S. “The one guy that’s going pretty good with me in Iowa is Ted Cruz. He’s a nice guy,” Trump told a town hall in Des Moines. “But with the ethanol, really it’s — he’s got to come a long way cause he’s right now for the oil.” The attack was intended to hit Cruz for his opposition to the Renewable Fuel Standard, which is seen as a major economic boon for Iowa corn farmers. This latest poll was conducted between Dec. 7 and 10 and included 400 likely Republican caucus participants, Bloomberg reported; there’s a 4.9 percent margin of error. Trump also on Friday night foreshadowed a poor polling result, telling the crowd: “Every time the Des Moines Register does a poll, I always do badly.” He added, “I only like polls that treat me well.” Selzer cautioned to NBC News last week that there is still much at stake over the next month and a half before suggesting this is how the GOP race will conclude. “Anything could and likely will happen before caucus night.

And there’s no advantage to lock in, so why would they?” “I think this is, this is really the fruits of work that we have been doing for eight months now, systematically doing the long slow steady work of building a grassroots army,” Cruz said in South Carolina. Meanwhile, Ben Carson took a heavy hit in the polling, dropping from 29 percent in mid-October to 13 percent, amid questions among Republicans over his grasp on foreign policy. Laudner disputed that polls accurately account for the number of Iowans who will ultimately turn out on caucus night for Trump. “It’s very, very hard to poll. No one has ever seen it before, so it cannot be diminished.” This is the second time Trump has polled second in a string of Iowa polls — the first coming in mid-October when respondents placed Carson as the Hawkeye State’s favorite.

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