The Daily 202: GOP race could winnow to Rubio and Cruz, plus four other …

29 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Keller @ Large: Debate Moderators Deserve Criticism.

John Kasich, left, and Donald Trump, second from right, argue across fellow candidates during the CNBC Republican presidential debate at the University of Colorado, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015, in Boulder, Colo. (Mark J. Current Governors Chris Christie and John Kasich and former Governors Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee offered interesting thoughts based on their executive experiences.

In all, the 10 candidates on stage attacked the moderators’ questions and the media at least 14 times, or as often as they went after President Barack Obama, according to an analysis of a Federal News Service rush transcript conducted by Bloomberg Politics in partnership with Adam Tiouririne (@Tiouririne) of Logos Consulting Group. He advises senior business executives on high-stakes communication, grounded in his research about how leaders perform at their most important—and most widely broadcast—moments. But on the taxes paid by individuals and families, on the benefits paid out by the government, and on the basic structure of America’s political economy, for some time now, the traditional Republican playbook on economic issues has been almost exhausted. His sure-footed performance in Wednesday’s CNBC debate was Rubio’s strongest so far, with a withering retort at the ready when his archrival Jeb Bush assailed him for skipping Senate votes while running for president. Wednesday night’s debate — which was specifically cast by CNBC as being about the economy — only added to the evidence that GOP offerings on this topic are wholly insufficient.

He received more questions from the moderators and invitations to rebut rivals than anyone save billionaire Donald Trump, and enjoyed more air time than anyone except former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Another candidate, former Hewlett-Packard chief executive Carly Fiorina, surged in the polls after two strong debate performances, but quickly fell back into the bottom ranks.

I thought Rubio and Fiorina were the most articulate, Kasich and Christie the most passionate, and didn’t see Trump or Carson doing any damage to their standing atop the polls. He was also the only candidate to receive a significant boost in his nomination odds compared to before the debate, according to several prediction markets. Rubio campaign manager Terry Sullivan, perhaps mindful of those precedents, tried to diminish expectations, saying the senator would see no such surge. “It’s checking another box – can he take a punch, and how does he handle it,” Sullivan said. “And he took some punches and returned them just as good or even better than he got them.” “There’s no need to pile on Gov. But it was Cruz who drew the biggest cheer of the night when he lashed out at the CNBC panel for asking crude gotcha questions, inserting themselves inappropriately into the debate, and failing to fairly and smoothly moderate the event. Bush after his performance tonight,” he said – his pity speaking volumes about where the two candidates find themselves in the debate’s aftermath. “I think the interaction between he and Marco speaks for itself.”

That was the consensus of a panel of five undecided Northeast Ohio Republican voters who delivered feedback on the debate to via Twitter. It mirrored the assertive style she showcased in the second debate, but has failed to translate into any meaningful bump for her in the prediction markets or on social media so far. I prefer to ask substantive questions and then play traffic cop, letting the candidates challenge each other and leaving the voters to decide who is credible and who isn’t without guidance from me. Texas Senator Ted Cruz also performed well, despite receiving fewer direct questions than any of the other candidates, by capturing the spotlight with his barbed attack on the moderators. “The questions that have been asked so far in this debate illustrate why the American people don’t trust the media,” he said, adding that “this is not a cage match.” His broadside was later identified as the top social-media moment of the debate by Facebook and Twitter. In terms of raw numbers, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who recently edged out Trump in a national poll for the first time in months, gained more Twitter followers and Facebook likes immediately before, during, and after the debate than any other candidate: More than 10,000 followers and 70,000 likes, respectively, between 7:30 p.m. and 11:20 p.m.

Four years ago, Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney was most comfortable talking to and about entrepreneurs, and his notorious comments about the 47 percent of voters who are “takers” certainly did not help him win the downwardly mobile whites who can and sometimes do swing Republican in states like Ohio, Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Republican presidencies, and the Republican revolution in Congress, have cut a whole lot of taxes, consistently taking more and more families and households “off the rolls” of taxpayer. That he did that and Bush didn’t speaks volumes.” Schmitt said he got so bored during some of Bush’s remarks that he stopped watching the debate for a while to check out the Cleveland Cavaliers game on another TV channel. That means almost every future GOP-proposed tax cut that is aimed at individuals or households will, by logical necessity, “cut taxes for the richest Americans” and “do nothing for the poor.” That doesn’t play well in Toledo.

As Ramesh Ponnuru pointed out, Jeb Bush’s proposed tax plan has cuts and trims that the Tax Foundation believes would raise middle-class incomes by nearly three percent. Now it’s back to the campaign trail for the Republican presidential hopefuls, at least for another two weeks, when debate time—hosted by Fox Business and the Wall Street Journal in Milwaukee on Nov. 10—rolls around again. That’s why Bush has to promise that his plan will magically create four percent growth in the economy, something he only accomplished in Florida during a major housing bubble.

Doesn’t spend time tearing down others – GOP or Dems.” “The Republican party won tonight,” said Banjac. “Rubio and Christie won the debate, Kasich scored points on Ohio’s economic record – Trump Carson okay.” Perhaps the worst idea, floated at various times by Rand Paul, Ben Carson, and Ted Cruz, is to begin adding more citizens back onto the nation’s split check through a flat tax. Needless to say, whatever the claims these candidates make about revenue, the reality of their plans is that they will amount to a massive tax increase on the poorest Americans. Another problem for Republicans who claim to want to simplify the tax code: Middle-class Americans really like their tax loopholes, or at least have organized their life plans around them.

They see the loophole that their employer uses to compensate them in a health insurance plan as the only way to provide good health care to their families. Interest rates are so low and have been for so long that the common definition of “saving for the future” in America has been changed to “investing” or “buying appreciable assets.” Americans now put away money for the future by buying securities or real estate. There’s no stimulus left in that tank of liberating savings to more productive use, until the National Guard comes a knockin’ to open our change jars. That means that despite Tea Party protestations, most Republican lawmakers not named Paul Ryan care about budget deficits much, much less than they once did.

The moment interest rates do start to rise, the interest payments on America’s national debt will take significantly larger bites out of the annual budget. Of all the GOP economic plans out there, the only one that seems to begin untying the Republican knot — how to pay for government, not strangle growth, and change the code to help Republican constituencies — is the one promoted by Sens. Their proposal lowers rates modestly at the top, reduces the number of tax brackets, and dramatically expands the child credit, making it applicable to payroll taxes as well as income taxes. Overall, their plan reduces the tax increases that come with moving from one tax bracket to a higher one, especially for married couples with children.

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