The Latest on the 2016 race: Sanders pushes for more debates

28 Sep 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Ben Carson just one point behind Donald Trump: poll.

Donald Trump is now essentially tied with Ben Carson, another non-politician and retired neurosurgeon, in the Republican race for the presidential nomination. Donald Trump and Ben Carson are running neck and neck in the national Republican presidential horserace, while Carly Fiorina is now tied for third place with Marco Rubio, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Over at the Democrats, Hillary Clinton’s main opponent, Senator Bernie Sanders, is also making serious inroads, the latest Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds.

And on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton has lost ground to Bernie Sanders — she leads him by just seven points with Joe Biden in the race, and 15 points without the vice president. Only 10 percent of Republican voters picked him as their top candidate two months ago. “It kind of reflects what we’ve been seeing out on the road, just tremendous crowds but enormous enthusiasm,” he told ABC’s Martha Raddatz Sunday. “And I think it says a lot for the American people, because it means that they’re not necessarily listening to the pundits, that they’re starting to think for themselves,” he added. “And that, I think, is what it’s going to take to get us off of this inexorable track toward destruction that we’re on.” Democratic voters still favor Clinton over Sanders, 42 percent to 35 percent, as their top choice for the nomination, but 17 percent of Democrats are going with Biden. That means Trump is pretty much tied with Carson, who received 20 percent support in a poll that has a margin of error of plus or minus 6.46 percentage points. In fact, since last Sunday’s CNN/ORC poll, the change Trump has seen since the last polls from each outlet has varied — up since the last one in some, down in others. Clinton maintains a much larger lead over Sanders, 53 to 38 percent if Biden doesn’t run, suggesting Biden would peel away much of Clinton’s support.

Back in July’s NBC/WSJ poll, Trump was in first place at 19 percent, Scott Walker (who exited the race on Monday) was second at 15 percent, Bush third at 14 percent and Carson fourth at 10 percent. Can Trump win the GOP nomination? “I think so” is Clinton’s assessment, though he also adds on CNN, “I mean, how do I know?” The two-term president says he’s hasn’t run for office in a long time and doesn’t “have a good feel for this.” From cyberspace to space itself, Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson says “strength is really the defense against aggressiveness by others” from cyberspace to space itself.

To the pedants’ point, a photo of the pack just out of the gates doesn’t tell you much about who’s going to win — but if a long shot comes out of the gates strong and, in a photograph taken 200 yards later, has widened his lead, that’s interesting. And while Trump is up two points from July the average of surveys over the past few months clearly shows why that may not exactly be good news for his campaign. Carson tells ABC’s “This Week” that he favors offensive cyberattacks against anyone who attacks the United States — “they need to understand that there will be consequences.” In an interview Sunday on Fox News, the former Florida governor says the polls now showing Donald Trump in the lead don’t mean much five months before New Hampshire Republicans vote.

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton is the first choice of 42 percent of primary voters, Sanders is in second at 35 percent and Joe Biden third at 17 percent. The folks at Real Clear Politics create a running average of the polls, a sort of mock horse race based on the photos we’ve seen. (They exclude some of the blurry photos from polling firms that use unproven methodologies or have a bad track records.) If we include the RCP polling average, you can see more clearly what happened.

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