The Lid: Iowa Voters Calling for Dr. Ben Carson

1 Sep 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Carson Surging in Iowa, Tied with Trump at Top of New Poll.

Mr. Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has moved into a tie for first place with Donald Trump in a new poll of Iowa Republican caucusgoers released on Monday.In Iowa, is the first choice among 23 percent of likely Republican caucus goers -jumping from 4 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll this weekend. Republican voters appear to be warming to Trump’s unconventional and confrontational style – his favorability numbers among Iowa Republicans have jumped 35 points since January. “This is a movement, folks. The survey of Iowa voters by Monmouth University pollsters, released Monday morning, shows Carson and Trump each with 23 per cent of the GOP electorate in the Hawkeye State.

And with former tech CEO Carly Fiorina coming in third with 10 per cent, a majority of Iowa Republicans – 56 per cent in all – say they prefer a White House nominee without any political pedigree at all. ‘We are clearly happy with the survey,’ Carson national press secretary Deana Bass told ‘It tracks with the enthusiasm that we see as Dr. Trump enjoys nonstop media coverage and has not been targeted with any negative ads, yet he can manage only a five-point lead over Ben Carson in the DMR/Bloomberg poll. Carson gathers huge crowds across the country.’ ‘This campaign is a marathon, not a sprint,’ Bass added. ‘So we’ll continue working hard and reaching out with a grass roots campaign because Dr.

Trump vaulted to the top spot by insulting immigrants, women, war heroes, journalists and anyone who crossed him — and doing so with unbridled glee. Trump, the angry and crass populist, may find his comeuppance among Iowa evangelicals for whom his refusal to pledge to defund Planned Parenthood and his feigned religiosity (doesn’t go to church, can’t name his favorite Bible verse) are problematic.

And they’re both hot properties in the GOP presidential nomination race, ranked one and two nationally, and tied for the lead in the latest poll out of Iowa. It resonates,” Ryan Rhodes, Carson’s Iowa state director and former chairman of the Iowa Tea Party, said on Monday. “Sometimes it’s systematically chunking away at a few points here and a few points there. It looks like catching fire, and he has caught fire…but in large part, the race has exploded in terms of people are going to look and going to see these people.” “I think Trump has done a good thing by stirring everybody up and making the average American believe that there are other people who have the ability to be in power, thinking the same way we are. Besides not being a politician like Trump and having a willingness to speak his mind (no matter how out of it he is), Carson is the antithesis of Trump. Trump’s bully-boy routine may amuse talk radio hosts, but he is anything but “Iowa nice.” Given Trump’s enormous ego and hype, Iowa is nearly a must-win for him.

She has also received endorsements from the two most popular Democrats in the state, former senator Tom Harkin and former governor Tom Vilsack, and achieved an almost unprecedented fundraising haul. But as most presidential elections since World War II have come down to a referendum on likeability – Richard Nixon’s being the exception – Carson may have his own stealth advantage. Originally started as an effort to draft Carson to run, the super PAC laid early groundwork in the state–identifying supporters in all 99 counties–prior to Carson’s entrance into the race. The Monmouth University Poll found the African-American doctor with a staggering 81 per cent favorability rating, compared with just 6 per cent unfavorable. ‘Trump’s support is currently more solid than Carson’s, but Iowa voters are still considering quite a few candidates before they come to a final decision,’ Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said Monday. Carson is gaining support because “he’s viewed as principled,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Second, he’s widely seen as likeable.

The third tier now consists of politicians once thought to be the most formidable bunch – senators and governors with financial backing and decades of preparation for America’s highest office. Rhodes said Carson, known to make stops from churches to food banks across the state, resonates with voters because of the nature of his campaign appearances. “It was just emblematic of what he likes to do, what he wants to do to give back. Clinton’s numbers have tumbled in most recent polls, as scrutiny over her use of a private email server while secretary of state has stretched throughout the summer. Any time voters hear something that sounds like political double talk, they tune out.” Carson’s likeability shines in the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll that came out over the weekend. In the first Republican debate, held Aug. 8, Trump dominated in every way – both in the coverage of his comments and in the amount of time he consumed (11:14).

In Iowa, Sanders is running a campaign that many activists consider to be relatively unorthodox, targeting voters who do not often participate in the caucuses. For a party in thrall to a natural showman with little known allegiance to Republican ideology, what explains the rise of an otherwise boring doctor who made a name for himself telling off President Obama at the prayer breakfast in 2013? “Trump satisfies the id.

Carson got about half as much speaking time (6:46) and was seen as almost sleepy, until the end, when he sprang to life and made one of the more memorable statements. “I’m the only one to separate Siamese twins…,” Carson said, “the only one to operate on babies while they were still in the mother’s womb, the only one to take out half of a brain – although you would think, if you go to Washington, that someone had beat me to it.” That comment brought down the house. Carson satisfies the superego,” said Rick Wilson, a Republican ad maker and strategist told me in an e-mail. “Trump feeds the nationalist, isolationist, sometimes revanchist sentiment of a lost working and lower middle class overcome by change and economic dislocation.

He’s the avatar of their anger, even if he asks them to look past all their conservative values to support him.” As for Carson, Wilson said, “Carson is the aspirational story that fills people’s hearts and makes them look at a miracle that could only happen here. Evidently brilliant mindfully, but firmly conservative, in for the country not just for his ego.” Wilson, who is not working with any of the presidential candidates and says he’s “neutral,” later wrote, “’l’ll take door number 2!” Carson is also this cycle’s Republican answer to Obama. While Clinton’s campaign has long gone out of its way to tamp down expectations in Iowa, it is also worth noting that the closest analogue to her 2016 candidacy in modern times, that of then vice-president Al Gore in 2000, received more than 63% of the Iowan vote. Another dimension that cannot go unstated is that Carson is African-American, important to Republicans tired of being reminded that they are woefully deficient in their support among minorities.

He is, to some, the Republicans’ Barack Obama – and perhaps even more authentically black than President Obama, who grew up in Hawaii and was raised largely by his white mother and her parents. But in early 2013, when Carson burst onto the political scene and lectured Obama in person at the National Prayer Breakfast, he was suddenly all over Fox News.

Commentator Ta-Nehisi Coates of The Atlantic called Carson “the Conservative Black Hope of the moment.” More than two years later, Carson has proved himself to be no mere political flash in the pan. A 2011 editorial in The Post argued that such an amendment “would deprive policymakers of the flexibility they need to address national security and economic emergencies. Carson wins strong support from Christian conservative voters – a major force in the Iowa caucuses – for his opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion. It would revise the Constitution in a way that would give dangerous power to a congressional minority.” “Most of the serious candidates are planning to foment voter interest and peak [in] the weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire,” Glover told me.

Looking at the race that way, the name of the game is to be among the survivors after the first two races with an intact message and sufficient money. Carson called the revelation of the 1992 paper “desperate,” and suggested to The Washington Post that the brouhaha reflected a lack of understanding about how medical research is conducted. Relying on Democratic insiders (super delegates) and a pile of money to lift her to the nomination does nothing to improve her chances in the general election.

And while Sanders might win the left in the primary, his views (he would not even say the first Gulf War was justified) are unlikely to win over the general electorate. Their hopes ride on an untrustworthy, unlikable candidate in the middle of an FBI investigation, or a socialist — or an old VP who has been in Washington for decades. Consider the contrast with the GOP, which is likely to have its pick of a half-dozen or so quality candidates, both insiders and outsiders, young and old, ethnically diverse.

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