This new Iowa poll could be bad news for Donald Trump

1 Sep 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Carson Surging in Iowa, Tied with Trump at Top of New Poll.

Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has moved into a tie for first place with Donald Trump in a new poll of Iowa Republican caucusgoers released on Monday.In Iowa, is the first choice among 23 percent of likely Republican caucus goers -jumping from 4 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll this weekend. Republican voters appear to be warming to Trump’s unconventional and confrontational style – his favorability numbers among Iowa Republicans have jumped 35 points since January. “This is a movement, folks. Trump and Carson, a neurosurgeon who came to national prominence when he blasted President Obama at a televised prayer breakfast, each get 23 percent in the new Monmouth University Survey.

One characteristic the two men share that has helped propel their respective candidacies is their determination to not be “politically correct.” Trump’s campaign is powered by the media attention he draws by saying racist, sexist, and otherwise outlandish things, and when he’s called out or criticized by the press for being an oafish lout, he brushes those complaints aside as the whining of the PC police. “I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct,” he said at the Fox News debate, to raucous applause from the audience. Carson’s entire political identity is centered around his willingness to defy political correctness and “say what needs to be said,” whether it be comparisons of Obamacare to slavery, or descriptions of the international Marxist conspiracy to undermine the United States through gay marriage. His popularity is climbing since the presidential debate on August 5. “I’m the only one that separates Siamese twins, the only one to operate on babies while they’re still in their mother’s womb and the only one to take out half of a brain,” Carson said. “Although you would think—if you go to Washington, you would think—someone beat me to it.” The same poll shows Democrat Bernie Sanders closing in on Hillary Clinton.

According to the most recent poll from the Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics, which was released on Saturday night, Trump is now viewed favorably by 52% of Iowa Republicans and unfavorably by 33%. It resonates,” Ryan Rhodes, Carson’s Iowa state director and former chairman of the Iowa Tea Party, said on Monday. “Sometimes it’s systematically chunking away at a few points here and a few points there. For years now, Fox News programs and talk radio airwaves have been saturated with sneering reports about diversity measures on college campuses and school curricula that promote tolerance and the WAR ON CHRISTMAS. “Political correctness” has been built up by conservative pundits and activists as something approaching an existential threat to the conservative movement and the entire country. It looks like catching fire, and he has caught fire…but in large part, the race has exploded in terms of people are going to look and going to see these people.” “I think Trump has done a good thing by stirring everybody up and making the average American believe that there are other people who have the ability to be in power, thinking the same way we are.

Nearly two-thirds of voters in the poll said they think the country needs someone outside government who can bring a new approach to Washington, compared to 23 percent who said the next president should have government experience and know how to get things done. “After more than a month of Trump winning virtually every Republican demographic group, we’ve finally got a little variation in voting blocs to talk about,” said pollster Patrick Murray. Cupp wrote a column last week trying to explain why Donald Trump’s popularity has endured, even as he’s gleefully insulted women, Mexicans, Asians, and pretty much everyone else. She has also received endorsements from the two most popular Democrats in the state, former senator Tom Harkin and former governor Tom Vilsack, and achieved an almost unprecedented fundraising haul. Originally started as an effort to draft Carson to run, the super PAC laid early groundwork in the state–identifying supporters in all 99 counties–prior to Carson’s entrance into the race.

As Cupp sees it, Trump’s popularity is all liberals’ fault because they’ve forced all this political correctness on us, and now fed-up conservatives are seeking refuge in Trumpism: The new era of liberal political correctness — in which colleges designate “free speech zones,” words like “American” and “mother” are considered discriminatory, and children are suspended from school for firing make-believe weapons — has reached critical mass. If not for the loony sensitivities foisted upon us by the left, someone like Trump would be immediately dismissed as unprofessional and unserious, an incoherent blurter. Rhodes said Carson, known to make stops from churches to food banks across the state, resonates with voters because of the nature of his campaign appearances. “It was just emblematic of what he likes to do, what he wants to do to give back.

Instead, he’s the equally extreme response to extreme correctness — if everything is offensive in Liberalville, then nothing will be offensive in Trumpland. Clinton’s numbers have tumbled in most recent polls, as scrutiny over her use of a private email server while secretary of state has stretched throughout the summer. Undoubtedly there’s a strong current of cultural resentment flowing through the Trump coalition, but it has less to do with hypersensitive academics than it does the perception that the America that Trump supporters once knew is being lost. As Andrew Rosenthal writes, the “political correctness” argument animating the Trump surge is “rooted in the culture of white outrage, which in turn is based on the idea that efforts to win equal rights for minorities, women, gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender Americans and others have somehow resulted in discrimination against white people.” Trump speaks to the poisonous sexism and casual racism of decades past when you could crack a joke about how Asians talk funny or dismiss a woman’s viewpoint as “hormonal” and be reasonably confident that no one would raise an eyebrow in protest.

In Iowa, Sanders is running a campaign that many activists consider to be relatively unorthodox, targeting voters who do not often participate in the caucuses. But Trump’s success as an anti-PC candidate is causing some more practical conservatives heartburn as they start to realize that his enduring popularity tarnishes the Republican brand and exposes some real ugliness in their own ranks.

While Clinton’s campaign has long gone out of its way to tamp down expectations in Iowa, it is also worth noting that the closest analogue to her 2016 candidacy in modern times, that of then vice-president Al Gore in 2000, received more than 63% of the Iowan vote.

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