Why Ben Carson is surging

1 Sep 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

August 2016’s winners and losers.

Mr. Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson has moved into a tie for first place with Donald Trump in a new poll of Iowa Republican caucusgoers released on Monday.In Iowa, is the first choice among 23 percent of likely Republican caucus goers -jumping from 4 percent in May, according to a Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll this weekend.The 2016 winners of August: Trump, Carson, Sanders … The 2016 losers of August: Hillary, Jeb, Walker, and Rubio … But remember, he or she who wins August doesn’t necessarily win in the end … Why everyone needs to pay more attention to Ben Carson … Walker: It’s a “legitimate issue” to look at building a wall between the U.S. and Canada … After a month of Biden buzz about his ’16 intentions, he still hasn’t set up a fundraising committee … Fundraising woes for Jeb? … And Boehner vs.

Republican voters appear to be warming to Trump’s unconventional and confrontational style – his favorability numbers among Iowa Republicans have jumped 35 points since January. “This is a movement, folks. The survey of Iowa voters by Monmouth University pollsters, released Monday morning, shows Carson and Trump each with 23 per cent of the GOP electorate in the Hawkeye State. The famed pediatric neurosurgeon could not be less like Trump: he’s soft-spoken where Trump is bombastic and anecdotal where Trump is broad and sweeping, but both occupy a similar space in the political sphere.

And with former tech CEO Carly Fiorina coming in third with 10 per cent, a majority of Iowa Republicans – 56 per cent in all – say they prefer a White House nominee without any political pedigree at all. ‘We are clearly happy with the survey,’ Carson national press secretary Deana Bass told DailyMail.com. ‘It tracks with the enthusiasm that we see as Dr. Neither man has ever been elected to public office, but they’re both famous – Trump for his wealth and Carson for his rags-to-riches personal story – and possess the kind of charisma that’s worth its weight in gold in politics. Carson gathers huge crowds across the country.’ ‘This campaign is a marathon, not a sprint,’ Bass added. ‘So we’ll continue working hard and reaching out with a grass roots campaign because Dr.

Trump vaulted to the top spot by insulting immigrants, women, war heroes, journalists and anyone who crossed him — and doing so with unbridled glee. And they’re both hot properties in the GOP presidential nomination race, ranked one and two nationally, and tied for the lead in the latest poll out of Iowa.

It resonates,” Ryan Rhodes, Carson’s Iowa state director and former chairman of the Iowa Tea Party, said on Monday. “Sometimes it’s systematically chunking away at a few points here and a few points there. It looks like catching fire, and he has caught fire…but in large part, the race has exploded in terms of people are going to look and going to see these people.” “I think Trump has done a good thing by stirring everybody up and making the average American believe that there are other people who have the ability to be in power, thinking the same way we are. The losers of August on the GOP side: Try Scott Walker (who is now tied for third with Ted Cruz in Iowa – the state where he was seen as the clear frontrunner), Jeb Bush (who’s tied for fifth), and Marco Rubio (ditto). (Our friend Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report has a similar list of winners and losers; great minds think alike.) What do Trump, Carson, and Sanders all have in common? Besides not being a politician like Trump and having a willingness to speak his mind (no matter how out of it he is), Carson is the antithesis of Trump. The survey found that Trump’s supporters are more certain than Carson’s, but his rise in Monmouth’s first poll since the first presidential debate signals that the unlikely candidate may have significant room for growth.

In 2004, the undisputed winner of the summer was Howard Dean, who ultimately finished third in Iowa and won only his home state of Vermont in the 2004 primaries. She has also received endorsements from the two most popular Democrats in the state, former senator Tom Harkin and former governor Tom Vilsack, and achieved an almost unprecedented fundraising haul. But as most presidential elections since World War II have come down to a referendum on likeability – Richard Nixon’s being the exception – Carson may have his own stealth advantage. The survey also found that Carson enjoys far higher likeability ratings than Trump: 81% of voters surveyed said they had a favorable view of Carson – that’s the highest ranking any candidate saw in the survey – and just 6% have an unfavorable view of him. Originally started as an effort to drat Carson to run, the super PAC laid early groundwork in the state–identifying supporters in all 99 counties–prior to Carson’s entrance into the race.

In 2008, Hillary Clinton was crushing Barack Obama in the August before the nominating contests, while John McCain was essentially given up for dead during that summer. The Monmouth University Poll found the African-American doctor with a staggering 81 per cent favorability rating, compared with just 6 per cent unfavorable. ‘Trump’s support is currently more solid than Carson’s, but Iowa voters are still considering quite a few candidates before they come to a final decision,’ Monmouth University Polling Institute director Patrick Murray said Monday.

Carson is gaining support because “he’s viewed as principled,” says Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Second, he’s widely seen as likeable. And in 2012, the August winners were Michele Bachmann (who won the Iowa Straw Poll) and Rick Perry (who soared in the polls after his presidential launch).

The third tier now consists of politicians once thought to be the most formidable bunch – senators and governors with financial backing and decades of preparation for America’s highest office. Rhodes said Carson, known to make stops from churches to food banks across the state, resonates with voters because of the nature of his campaign appearances. “It was just emblematic of what he likes to do, what he wants to do to give back. Now if Trump/Carson/Sanders end winning in February and capture their party’s nomination, we’ll look back on this August as the turning points for them.

Clinton’s numbers have tumbled in most recent polls, as scrutiny over her use of a private email server while secretary of state has stretched throughout the summer. Any time voters hear something that sounds like political double talk, they tune out.” Carson’s likeability shines in the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll that came out over the weekend. In the first Republican debate, held Aug. 8, Trump dominated in every way – both in the coverage of his comments and in the amount of time he consumed (11:14). In Iowa, Sanders is running a campaign that many activists consider to be relatively unorthodox, targeting voters who do not often participate in the caucuses.

For a party in thrall to a natural showman with little known allegiance to Republican ideology, what explains the rise of an otherwise boring doctor who made a name for himself telling off President Obama at the prayer breakfast in 2013? “Trump satisfies the id. Carson satisfies the superego,” said Rick Wilson, a Republican ad maker and strategist told me in an e-mail. “Trump feeds the nationalist, isolationist, sometimes revanchist sentiment of a lost working and lower middle class overcome by change and economic dislocation. He’s the avatar of their anger, even if he asks them to look past all their conservative values to support him.” As for Carson, Wilson said, “Carson is the aspirational story that fills people’s hearts and makes them look at a miracle that could only happen here. Evidently brilliant mindfully, but firmly conservative, in for the country not just for his ego.” Wilson, who is not working with any of the presidential candidates and says he’s “neutral,” later wrote, “’l’ll take door number 2!” Carson is also this cycle’s Republican answer to Obama.-Canadian border isn’t going to change that perception. “Some people have asked us about that in New Hampshire,” he said on “Meet the Press” yesterday. “They raised some very legitimate concerns, including some law enforcement folks that brought that up to me at one of our town hall meetings about a week and a half ago.

While Clinton’s campaign has long gone out of its way to tamp down expectations in Iowa, it is also worth noting that the closest analogue to her 2016 candidacy in modern times, that of then vice-president Al Gore in 2000, received more than 63% of the Iowan vote. So that is a legitimate issue for us to look at.” Here’s the Washington Post on Walker’s struggles: “Walker’s backers see a campaign discombobulated by Trump’s booming popularity and by his provocative language on immigration, China and other issues. Another dimension that cannot go unstated is that Carson is African-American, important to Republicans tired of being reminded that they are woefully deficient in their support among minorities. He is, to some, the Republicans’ Barack Obama – and perhaps even more authentically black than President Obama, who grew up in Hawaii and was raised largely by his white mother and her parents.

To us, that’s telling, because if he is going to compete against Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, he’s got to raise between $50 million and $100 million before the first contests begin. But in early 2013, when Carson burst onto the political scene and lectured Obama in person at the National Prayer Breakfast, he was suddenly all over Fox News. Commentator Ta-Nehisi Coates of The Atlantic called Carson “the Conservative Black Hope of the moment.” More than two years later, Carson has proved himself to be no mere political flash in the pan. The Florida-based fundraising consultants — Kris Money, Trey McCarley and Debbie Aleksander — have said that they voluntarily quit the campaign and were still working with Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise Super PAC.

Others said the three, who worked under the same contract, were let go because they were no longer needed for the current phase of the campaign,” Politico writes. And Politico’s Marc Caputo adds that Jeb is grinding out fundraisers throughout September, wondering if it’s a sign of fundraising troubles. “[W]as his [hard-dollar] fundraising too little? A 2011 editorial in The Post argued that such an amendment “would deprive policymakers of the flexibility they need to address national security and economic emergencies. Carson wins strong support from Christian conservative voters – a major force in the Iowa caucuses – for his opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion. It would revise the Constitution in a way that would give dangerous power to a congressional minority.” “Most of the serious candidates are planning to foment voter interest and peak [in] the weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire,” Glover told me.

Obama over the name of the United States’ largest mountain: President Obama heads to Alaska today to discuss climate change, and we learned that the Obama administration changed the name of Alaska’s Mount McKinley – in honor of former President William McKinley of Ohio – to Mount Denali. That decision angered Ohio’s John Boehner: “There is a reason President McKinley’s name has served atop the highest peak in North America for more than 100 years, and that is because it is a testament to his great legacy. McKinley served our country with distinction during the Civil War as a member of the Army,” the House speaker said in a statement, per Roll Call. “He made a difference for his constituents and his state as a member of the House of Representatives and as Governor of the great state of Ohio.

I’m deeply disappointed in this decision.” *** On the trail: John Kasich stumps in Michigan … Marco Rubio is in Reno, NV … Ted Cruz has multiple events in New Hampshire … Rand Paul is in Vermont … And Bobby Jindal, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum campaign in Iowa. Back then, he was polling at just 4 percent support and his favorability was at -36 points; now, he leads the pack with 23% support and his favorability is at +26 points.” The New York Times notes that Iowans are worried about what a Perry aide’s defection to Donald Trump’s camp says about the state’s reputation: “ ‘I think it sends a perception that we’re pay-for-play, and if that’s the case, we lose credibility as the first-in-the nation caucuses,’ said a top Republican official in Iowa.” “Candidates and outside groups are expected to spend $1.1 billion on digital advertising in 2016, up almost 700% from $162 million in the 2012 elections, according to Borrell Associates, an advisory firm that tracks media trends,” writes the Wall Street Journal. BUSH: POLITICO, from over the weekend: “Three top Jeb Bush fundraisers abruptly parted ways with his presidential campaign on Friday, amid internal personality conflicts and questions about the strength of his candidacy, POLITICO has learned.There are different versions of what transpired.

Chris Christie of New Jersey said on Saturday that if he were elected president he would combat illegal immigration by creating a system to track foreign visitors the way FedEx tracks packages.” WALKER: His supporters are hoping for a reboot, writes the Washington Post: “These supporters say what is needed now is a return to basics, a more disciplined focus on the issues Walker long has championed in Wisconsin.

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