Will Trump take on Carson at GOP debate?

28 Oct 2015 | Author: | No comments yet »

Ben Carson, Beating All Comers.

BOULDER, Colo. In his latest campaign ad, Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio tasks his campaign staff with getting the latest scoop on Cruz, Bush and Carson, and based on the amount of energy he pours into his fantasy football team, I’m thinking he just became the clear front-runner.

Ben Carson, the soft-spoken former neurosurgeon, has for the first time knocked repellent loudmouth Donald Trump out of the top spot in the Republican nomination race.On Tuesday, the billionaire alluded to polls showing him in second in Iowa, asking an audience in the state to do him “a favor” to help him win in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. According to a poll released by CBS News/New York Times on Tuesday, Carson, now at 26 per cent, is four points ahead of Trump at 22 per cent, while the other GOP presidential hopefuls languish in the single digits. I promise you: I will do such a good job.” But this time, the former Atlantic City casino mogul arrived after four polls in the last week showed him losing his lead in the polls there to retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson.

The former Florida governor, once considered the solid favorite for the Republican presidential nomination, enters the Colorado debate less than a week after a campaign shake-up and renewed questions about his stump style. “If this election is about how we’re going to fight to get nothing done, then I don’t want anything — I don’t want any part of it. To steal a line from Greg Abbott, San Fran’s line has more holes than the Mexican border, and Bush — hampered by injuries and playing second fiddle to featured back Carlos Hyde — still hasn’t found the end zone this season. A New York Times/CBS News survey released Tuesday also showed him trailing Carson nationally — his first time in three months that he wasn’t leading a nationwide poll.

Perhaps just as important as respondents’ first choices right now are their second and third choices, not to mention their last choices — that is, the candidates for whom they almost certainly will not vote. The apparent popularity of his ideas seemed to induce echoes from other candidates, including Jeb Bush who dropped the pejorative “anchor babies” when discussing the issue of illegal immigration, and former candidate Scott Walker, who said he was open to the idea of building a wall to separate Canada and the United States. To get a full picture of the Republican electorate, The Upshot created an experiment with two social scientists — Barry Nalebuff and Alan Gerber, both at Yale — and the survey team at Google. Carson’s appeal is obvious: he grew up poor in a single-parent household from the age of eight, raised by a mother with only a third grade education.

I’ve got a lot of really cool things that I could do other than sit around, being miserable, listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. That data then allows us to examine the field in many iterations, including head-to-head matchups and various scenarios in which some candidates drop out. The Bush campaign on Tuesday dropped a new two-minute video aimed squarely at Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton, not a Republican rival. “Hillary is not a moderate” comes up on screen. Then there are quick cuts of punditry and Clinton speeches intended to tie her directly to her former boss and charge that she would be a third term for Barack Obama.

Carson then starting writing weekly columns for the Washington Times and giving regular speeches, including one at the National Prayer Breakfast in 2013, where he ripped into President Barack Obama who was sitting mere feet away. The real estate mogul and former reality television star spent the first half of the speech in Iowa stressing repeatedly how he’s a world-class dealmaker who will turn the country around.

First, the split between outsider candidates like Ben Carson and Donald Trump and insider candidates is not as clean as it may seem. (My colleague Nate Cohn made some related points recently.) Roughly 35 percent of likely voters whose first choice is Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio list Mr. Halfway through, the mood changes and Jeb! appears on screen. “I reject the pessimism of the left that just thinks we have to become more dependent on government,” Mr. He has since earned the reputation as a sharp, straight-talking conservative commentator, while still looking as if he’s popped two Xanax each time he steps up to the mic. Then the ad wraps up with a whirl-through of Bush looking energetic, promoting jobs, and saying “I know how to do this!” Probably because he and his advisers calculate that his best chance remains punching up, portraying himself as an equal to the presumptive Democratic nominee and arguing (implicitly) that he’s the person best positioned to defeat her.

Carson partially conceded to Trump’s anti-vaccination garbage in a GOP debate in September, saying that we ought to spread out children’s vaccine schedules But style, needless to say, is not equal to substance. Trump then told the crowd his poll numbers actually aren’t that bad and reminded them that he is leading his 14 GOP rivals — including New Jersey Gov.

Indeed, Carson’s soft-spoken hypocrisy echoes loudest when he pontificates about science: he’s a medical doctor, after all, who in 2012, said that Darwin came up with the theory of evolution because he was encouraged by the devil. Chris Christie — in most national polls, as well as in other key states, like New Hampshire and South Carolina. “I have such an unbelievable relationship with the people of Iowa, that I think we’re gonna win,” he said to cheers from the crowd. “Because I am the real deal, I will tell you. Carson has also attacked Planned Parenthood for donating aborted fetal tissue for medical research, though he himself conducted research on aborted fetuses for a paper published in 1992. It’s not just Carson’s unabashed duplicity when it comes to matters of science, but also his shattering deafness in the face of a wide variety of social and political issues. He said that if Jews had guns they might have prevented the Holocaust, which is both mind-bogglingly one-dimensional and historically meaningless, especially as a contemporary argument against gun control.

Primary political endorsements aren’t usually advertisements per se – they’re a means for insiders to signal preferences to each other and for party leaders to coalesce around a preferred candidate. With the help of Google Consumer Surveys, which samples individuals who respond to surveys to gain access to premium content on selected websites, we surveyed 6,072 people who report themselves as being either very likely to or will definitely vote in a Republican primary. He has argued that he would cut off federal funding to universities housing “extreme political bias,” declining to elaborate on how the government would monitor and/or identify “extreme bias,” or how his plan doesn’t constitute a gross violation of free speech, and he compared abortion to slavery in arguing that it should be made illegal in all cases, including rape. And still, one of his most stunning responses came when he was asked if he was planning to meet the families of the victims of the recent mass shooting in Oregon; Carson replied that he was very busy but that he probably “would go to the next one.” At a certain point, gaffes are less “mistakes” than they are evidence. Our survey was taken Oct. 21-22 and we’ve weighted the Google survey results so that the participants match the age and gender balance seen in the 2012 Republican primary.

Indeed, when the room is quiet enough to hear what Ben Carson is actually saying, it becomes obvious that his ideas are just as logically inconsistent, logistically infeasible and occasionally, as grossly moronic as those of Donald Trump. Rubio is generally stronger with Republican men than women, which is potentially a problem for a party that has recently struggled to win a large share of the female vote in general elections.

We encourage readers to read that piece and to dig into the data for themselves. (You can find it here.) If you find something interesting, let us know, on Twitter, on Facebook or in the comments section below. Google’s results generally appear quite close to those of other surveys, a Pew analysis found, and these results in particular resemble those from other recent polls of Republicans. (In 2012, as Nate Silver has noted, Google was actually more accurate than many traditional polls.) But we would caution against putting too much weight on small differences among candidates. Instead of just asking for their first choice, asking likely voters to rank their choices provides a fundamentally richer insight into the true will of the people.

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