MLB MVP 2024: Head-to-Head Breakdown for AL’s Aaron Judge, NL’s Shohei Ohtani

The 2024 MLB season officially wrapped on October 30, when the Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Yankees in Game 5 of the World Series.

While the World Series ended up being relatively one-sided, it provided a dream matchup for baseball fans. Not only did the championship round feature two marquee franchises, but it also featured two MVP favorites in Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani and Judge aren’t the only MVP candidates who will have a shot at MVP honors when winners are announced on November 21. However, it’s hard to envision voters straying from the two, who each had historic seasons in 2024.

Here, you’ll find odds and predictions for this year’s American League and National League MVP races, along with a head-to-head breakdown of baseball’s two biggest stars.

NL MVP

AL MVP

*Odds from October 1, via DraftKings Sportsbook (h/t Covers.com)

Judge and Ohtani are heavy favorites, but not because the 2024 season produced a weak field. In any other year, we’d probably have a tight race in both leagues.

New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor, for example, had an incredible season with 33 home runs, 91 RBIs, a .344 on-base percentage and a .273 batting average while appearing in 152 games. Just as importantly, the soon-to-be 31-year-old provided leadership for a Mets team that reached the NLCS for the first time since 2015.

“This guy is special, man,” Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said in August, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. “Everything is so detail oriented. The way he prepares is unbelievable. And he’s to a place now where New York is home for him.”

If the MVP award is about being “most valuable,” few were more deserving this year than Lindon.

Atlanta Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna batted .302 with 39 home runs and 104 RBIs while earning his third All-Star appearance. Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies made his eighth All-Star appearance while delivering 30 home runs and 87 RBIs in 145 games.

Ketel Marte delivered 36 home runs and 95 RBIs for the Arizona Diamondbacks while earning his second All-Star nod.

Over in the American League, Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals has made a very compelling case for MVP. The 24-year-old racked up an MLB-best 211 hits with 32 home runs, 109 RBIs, 31 stolen bases and an incredible .332 batting average. With an AL batting title and Gold Glove Award on his 2024 resume, Witt had one of the best seasons in recent memory.

If not for Judge’s remarkable season, Witt would be a clear MVP front-runner. The Yankees’ slugger was the only player with a higher offensive wins above replacement (WAR) value than Witt this season, according to ESPN.

Judge finished with an offensive WAR of 11.7, while Witt and Ohtani each finished at 9.2.

Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles tallied 177 hits, 37 home runs, 92 RBIs and a .364 on-base percentage, while Yankees outfielder Juan Soto finished with a 166/41/109/.419 stat line.

Cleveland Guardians infielder José Ramírez recorded 173 hits, 39 home runs and 118 RBIs while helping Cleveland reach its first ALCS since 2016.

Overall, it’s an impressive list of candidates, though Judge and Ohtani stand above the rest.

Barring a massive surprise, Ohtani and Judge will both earn MVP awards later this month. There should be no debate about whether either player is deserving. However, fans could easily spend the offseason debating who had the better season.

Ohtani, of course, owns the ultimate trump card, as he and the Dodgers emerged with a championship.

Looking at the numbers, though, it’s harder to find a clear winner. Judge took the edge in WAR. He also led Major League Baseball in home runs, runs batted in, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage.

Judge also became the fastest player to reach 300 career home runs, doing so in his 955th game in August.

As a hitter, Judge’s 2024 season was on par with, if not better than his 2022 MVP campaign. However, Ohtani—serving as a full-time hitter following 2023 elbow surgery—didn’t lag far behind.

Judge and Ohtani Batting Comparison

Hits

Ohtani: 197

Judge: 180

Batting Average

Judge: .322

Ohtani: .310

Home Runs

Judge: 58

Ohtani: 54

RBIs

Judge: 144

Ohtani: 130

On-Base Percentage

Judge: .458

Ohtani: .390

Hitting, of course, is only part of the equation. In years past, Ohtani has impressed as both a batter and a pitcher. With Los Angeles keeping him off of the mound this season, Ohtani became an x-factor with his ability to steal bases.

While Judge did steal 10 bases in 2024, Ohtani recorded a ridiculous 59 stolen bases in 159 games. This allowed the 30-year-old to best Judge in runs scored, 134 to 122. It also allowed Ohtani to make MLB history.

With 54 home runs and 59 stolen bases, Ohtani officially became the founding member of the 50/50 club. One could argue that Ohtani’s campaign was the greatest all-around season of the modern era.

“We all know what he’s capable of doing, but for him to reach that mark—it’s pretty amazing,” Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas said when Ohtani surpassed the 50/50 mark in September, per ESPN’s Aidan Gonzalez.

Judge provided magic at the plate, while Ohtani earned himself a sizeable section in the history books. Debating who had the better regular season is a fool’s errand because both campaigns were remarkable—and both players will be rightfully recognized later this month.