Super Bowl LIX is nigh.
This matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs has already been talked through to death but here are some final thoughts I felt the need to get off my chest.
1 – Saquon Barkley is unstoppable.
The Chiefs’ run defense ranks:
- tied for 7th in yards per attempt
- 9th in DVOA
- 10th in Pro Football Focus grading
- 15th in EPA
- 16th in success rate
It’s not a bad run defense. But the Eagles have faced much better.
Even if the Chiefs WERE amazing against the run, I don’t care. Barkley cannot be stopped. Keep pounding the rock over and over.
Barkley’s career high for carries in one game is 36. He also had three receptions for 39 total touches. I don’t know if the Eagles will need to get to numbers that high. But they shouldn’t be afraid to do so.
Empty the tank.
2 – Jalen Carter MUST be a game-wrecker.
The last time the Eagles played in the Superdome was when they faced the New Orleans Saints in Week 3. Entering that game, the Saints’ offense was red hot. But one player absolutely shut them down that day. And his name was Jalen Carter.
It helped that the Saints’ offensive line got banged up early in that game. And it helped that Derek Carr isn’t so great.
Still, we all know that Carter has game-wrecking potential. If anybody has the ability to neutralize Patrick Mahomes, it’s him. Carter must absolutely be a force and take the game over.
It’ll be very interesting to see how the Chiefs plan to block Carter. Trey Smith is really good. Will they trust Smith to single block Carter at a decent clip, allowing Creed Humphrey to give more help to Mike Caliendo’s side? Do the Eagles go out of character and move Carter around more often than usual?
Regardless of the situation, Carter must dominate for the Eagles to win this game. I’m talking about seeing prime Aaron Donald out there.
3 – Nick Sirianni must learn from his last Super Bowl appearance.
You don’t beat Mahomes by punting the ball and kicking field goals. You just don’t.
Sirianni’s aggressiveness on 4th-and-5 in the NFC Championship Game was a huge turning point for the Eagles.
The Eagles won Super Bowl LII in no small part by running Philly Special on fourth down and later converting a 4th-and-1 in the fourth quarter.
They lost Super Bowl LVII in no small part by Sirianni punting on 4th-and-3 from the Eagles’ own territory.
Go down swinging. Do not play scared.
4 – I feel confident in Jalen Hurts.
After watching Hurts ball out in the NFC Championship Game and thinking back to his strong performance in Super Bowl LVII, it’s hard not to think he’s a big game player.
I feel like I should be a little more concerned about the passing game since 1) it obviously struggled for a good portion of the 2024 season and 2) Hurts’ penchant for holding onto the ball for a long time gives the Chiefs’ pressure time to get home.
But I ultimately trust Hurts will do his part. The moment is never too big for him.
5 – The interior offensive line is a concern.
Landon Dickerson and Cam Jurgens fully participated in practice all week and they’re listed without game statuses on the final injury report. That’s the good news.
Still, it’s fair to wonder how close to 100% they are. Will they be able to make it through the game? Will they be noticeably hampered?
Also, Mekhi Becton has had a nice season … and he’s been especially good as a run blocker. But there are some concerns in pass protection. And Chris Jones going up against him isn’t the most comforting thought.
6 – There isn’t enough talk about the downside of Spags blitzing.
Steve Spagnuolo likes to blitz. And not just with frequency but with unexpected approaches. We get it.
How the Eagles handle this element is obviously a legitimate thing to watch.
But I’m tired of the talk about the Chiefs blitzing solely in the framing of it being a weapon for them. It could also be a big weakness.
Watching the Eagles-Chiefs game from last season, Hurts had some nice downhill runs where he was running right into areas vacated by oncoming defenders.
I don’t doubt Spags blitzing could cause problems for the Eagles. But it could also up some big opportunities for the Birds.
7 – It’s especially important for Nolan Smith to get off to a fast start in this game.
I really like the Smith vs. Jawaan Taylor matchup for the Eagles. Smith’s been red hot with four sacks in three playoff games … and 10.5 sacks in his last 15 games. Smith’s speed and athleticism could challenge Taylor, who always seemed to be concerned about rushes to the outside. Hence Taylor’s penchant for lining up far behind the ball as he can. And his wont to commit false start penalties. If Smith can beat Taylor early on, he might be able to get in Taylor’s head and cause more mistakes.
8 – Jake Elliott concerns me in a specific way.
At the risk of jinxing it, I’m not worried about Elliott missing a clutch kick late in the game. That’s almost never been an issue for him.
The bigger concern is that he misses an extra point in the middle of the game and that single point ends up being really important down the stretch.
9 – In Vic We Trust.
Vic Fangio couldn’t possibly have earned more benefit of the doubt with the way the Eagles’ defense has played this season.
Him being 0-8 against Mahomes isn’t super relevant. For starters, his defense didn’t even play that poorly in those games. And this Eagles defense is much better than the defenses he had on the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins.
10 – I hope this is Brandon Graham’s last game.
Prior to his triceps injury, BG looked like a player who can absolutely return for another season in 2025.
But while I certainly wouldn’t be upset for him to play forever, it’s time for the Eagles to send him out on top with another Super Bowl win.
There’s really no more proper ending to BG’s career.
11 – Dallas Goedert could be the better tight end on Sunday.
Goedert’s been pretty good in the playoffs. His 18 targets have resulted in 15 receptions for 188 yards (12.5 average) and one touchdown. He also has two carries for 13 yards to give him 201 yards from scrimmage.
The Eagles should keep feeding him. The Chiefs have struggled against tight ends this season; no team has allowed more yards to that position.
Stopping Travis Kelce typically isn’t an easy task but the Eagles have allowed the fewest yards to tight ends by far.
