In the first quarter of the year, Bitcoin recorded an impressive return of +68.7%. Notably, in mid-March, the market even achieved a milestone by rising above the level of $73,000. However, in the second quarter, the BTC price could not sustain this momentum. So, it had to settle with an unimpressive quarterly return of -12%. Now, as we are in the final month of the third quarter, What does the monthly performance tell about the prospects of this quarter? And, what can we expect for the last and final quarter of the year?
Bitcoin Monthly Return Analysis
In July, the market reported a comfortable return of +3.09%. At the beginning of that month, the price was around $62,679.31. By the end of the month, it closed at $64,639.05. During the month, we saw a strong bullish momentum between July 8 and July 21, taking the price from a low of $55,864 to a high of $68,157.67. On Jul 28, buyers made a vigorous attempt to create a new high.
In August, things turned upside down. The market could only show a negative return of -8.73%. At the opening on August 1, the BTC market was at $64,639. In the following days, sellers heavily pushed the price downwards. On August 5, the market fell to $53,994.12. Although buyers later attempted to push the price upwards, the result was unimpressive, as by the end of the month, the market slipped to $58,982.
The market opened in September with a strong red candlestick. The price was around $58,982. Currently, the price stands at $57,057, which indicates a -3.12% monthly return.
Bitcoin Quarter Three Performance Expectation
At present, the return of this quarter stands at -8.87%. In the previous year, this quarter was even worse, with a return of -11.4%. Over the last ten years, only four times has the market displayed a positive quarterly return in Q3. Including the present one, at least six times the market has shown a negative return. The highest return in this decade was +74.1% in 2017. The worst was -23.5% recorded in 2019.
Bitcoin Quarter Four Performance Expectation
In the final quarter of the previous year, the Bitcoin market demonstrated an excellent performance of +56.6%. It was the best reported since 2021. Over the last ten years, at least six times the market has displayed a positive return in Q4. The highest return of +226.1% was reported in 2017, while the lowest was -43.1% in 2018.
In conclusion, there is little chance that the BTC market will show a positive return this quarter. However, considering our historic return pattern, there is a high probability that the last quarter of 2024 will be a promising one.
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