Bitcoin’s Uphill Battle: 3.5M Addresses Stuck at $65k

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Bitcoin, the largest digital currency by market cap, has faced formidable challenges in its quest to move up. IntotheBlock’s data reveals that a large number of addresses, around 3.5 million, have bought BTC at current prices from $65000. This means that those investors holding their positions are now at a loss, and so there has been significant selling pressure whenever prices approach break-even points.

In an attempt to get past the $65,000 resistance, Bitcoin has undergone repeated rejections. A true breakout will require the cryptocurrency to go above this level, which is crucial for a possible cascade of buy orders from investors.

Amidst this challenging landscape, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. Prominent analyst Moustache recently tweeted that a significant move for Bitcoin could be imminent, citing the behaviour of the BBWP-Indicator.

According to Moustache, the last two times this indicator signaled a blue bar, in October 2023 and January 2024, Bitcoin subsequently experienced gains exceeding 80%. If a similar scenario unfolds, the analyst suggests that BTC could surpass the $100,000 mark.

Bitcoin Analyst Predicts Peak in 2025

Another analyst, Rekt Capital, provided a compelling analysis regarding Bitcoin’s historical price patterns in relation to its halving cycles. Drawing comparisons between the previous cycles in 2015-2017 and 2019-2021, the analyst highlighted significant timeframes between the halving events and subsequent peak prices of Bitcoin.

According to the analyst, during the 2015-2017 cycle, BTC reached its peak 518 days after the halving event. Similarly, in the 2019-2021 cycle, the peak occurred approximately 546 days post-halving. This observation suggests a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s market behaviour following halving events.


In the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the Halving

In the 2019-2021 cycle, Bitcoin peaked 546 days after the Halving

If history repeats and the next Bull Market peak occurs 518-546 days after the Halving…

That would mean Bitcoin could peak in this cycle…

— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) May 15, 2024

If history were to repeat itself, and the next peak in BTC’s bull market was to align with the aforementioned timeframe, it could indicate a potential peak in mid-September or mid-October 2025 for the current cycle. Such insights offer valuable guidance for investors and enthusiasts seeking to anticipate market movements.

However, Rekt Capital also noted that the current cycle is going 200 days faster as compared to the usual halving cycles. This speedup could lead to synchronizing with historical trends if the consolidation period after halving extends for a more prolonged time.

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