- GBP/JPY finds itself at the top end of near-term technical resistance.
- Next week sees a hefty economic calendar showing for the UK.
- Japan GDP growth slated for next Thursday.
GBP/JPY found itself back into familiar technical levels near 188.50 on Friday after an early-week bounce from the 186.20 region as the Pound Sterling (GBP) finds itself stepping over the Japanese Yen (JPY) that spent most of the week on the soft side.
It was a thin economic calendar for both currencies this week, leaving the Guppy pair hamstrung as investors grapple with interest rate cut outlooks from both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Both central banks appear to be quite dovish for opposite reasons, with the BoE grappling with a lopsided UK economy that sees inflation threats around every corner, and the BoJ that fears a deflationary overhang in the future, with Japanese inflation forecast to decline below the Japanese central bank’s 2% target in the months to come.
BoE’s Bailey, Japan GDP in the pipe for next week
BoE policymaker Haskel noted early Friday that while signs of progress on inflation in the UK have been encouraging, but there’s still plenty of room to clear on the BoE’s to-do book, and money markets have once again trimmed bets on rate cuts from the UK’s central bank. Rate markets now see less than 75 basis points in rate trims from the BoE in 2024.
Next week kicks off with an appearance from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey who will be giving a speech at England’s Loughborough University. The midweek also sees UK labor figures, as well as Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation and UK GDP growth, with next Friday wrapping up the UK’s data week with Retail Sales.
Japan sees GDP growth figures early Thursday, and markets are forecasting a fourth-quarter growth rebound in Japan to 0.3% QoQ, compared to the previous quarter’s -0.7% decline.
GBP/JPY Technical outlook
GBP/JPY continues to clatter along a near-term technical ceiling just south of the 189.00 handle, finding room near 188.80 before pulling back into the 188.50 region ahead of Friday’s closing bell. The pair rose cleanly through the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) near the 187.00 handle early in the week, and intraday momentum remains in the hands of bidders despite signs of congestion.
189.00 remains a key but tricky level for the GBP/JPY to overcome, with prices capped below the target level and keeping the Guppy constrained below the major 190.00 handle. The pair continues to trade into firmly bullish territory with the 200-day SMA near 182.11, far below current price action. Guppy bids have not touched the long-term SMA since a decline into 179.00 at the start of 2024.
GBP/JPY hourly chart
GBP/JPY daily chart
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