Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude slipping to low $50s by late 2026

Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude futures to fall to the low $50s a barrel by the end of 2026 as global oil supplies outpace demand.

In a client note, the U.S. investment bank said it expects the oil surplus to widen sharply, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2026. That build-up could lead to a nearly 800 million barrel increase in worldwide inventories by the end of 2026.

A significant share of that stock, about one-third, or 270 million barrels, is projected to be stored in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, where demand is expected to soften further. Goldman said this combination of higher inventories and weaker OECD consumption will push Brent’s fair value down from the current mid-$70 range.

While Brent is expected to stay close to forward contract levels through the rest of 2025, Goldman forecasts a sharper drop below those levels in 2026 as storage volumes climb.

The bank also highlighted a potential upside scenario. If China accelerates its oil stockpiling to 0.8 million barrels a day, up from the current 0.4 million, Brent’s average price could rise by about $6 a barrel compared to Goldman’s baseline, lifting it to around $62 in 2026.

As of early Asian trade on Wednesday, Brent crude futures were around $67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood near $63.

The forecast underlines the pressure building in the oil market, with storage, demand shifts, and strategic buying set to determine pricing over the next 18 months. For producers and traders, Goldman’s projections suggest tighter margins ahead and a volatile path driven by supply growth and policy choices.