On an annual basis, import prices rose 1.3%, marking their strongest year-over-year gain since July 2024. However, fuel imports remain 8.6% lower year-over-year, reflecting ongoing volatility in energy markets.
How Did Export Prices Perform?
Export prices were unchanged in November, as higher nonagricultural export prices balanced declines in agricultural goods. Agricultural export prices fell 0.4%, led by lower prices for soybeans and fruit, while nonagricultural exports rose 0.1%, driven by capital goods and industrial materials. Year-over-year, export prices increased 0.8%, their largest annual gain since mid-2024.
Regionally, export prices to key trading partners such as China and Japan declined in November, contributing to a weaker U.S. terms of trade. For instance, export prices to China dropped 0.5%, while those to Japan fell 1.0%.
What Does This Mean for Markets?
The unexpected rise in import prices adds to inflationary pressures, complicating the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Higher import costs, particularly for energy, could sustain upward pressure on Treasury yields as the Fed remains vigilant against inflation.
For commodities, the mixed price trends for fuel imports and agricultural exports suggest limited near-term support for gold as a safe haven. Equity markets may face headwinds, especially in sectors reliant on imported capital goods or consumer goods, as price increases weigh on profit margins.
In summary, the data indicates persistent cost pressures, particularly in energy markets, with a modestly bearish outlook for stocks and gold. Bond yields may see upward momentum as traders digest inflation implications for Fed policy.
