Trump’s odds on prediction markets surge above 90% as election results tilt his way
Betting markets took a sharp turn toward Donald Trump on Tuesday night as the first states were called in the presidential election.
So far, reliably Republican and Democratic states have fallen into Donald Trump’s and Kamala Harris’s columns. No swing states have been called yet, but there are signs Trump is likely to win Georgia and North Carolina.
According to Kalshi, Trump’s odds of winning jumped to 93% from 57% at the start of the day. On PredictIt, a contract for Trump winning the election leapt to 90 cents from 54 cents on Monday. On the new IBKR Forecast Trader from Interactive Brokers, Trump’s odds soared to 92% from 59% at the start of the day.
Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, showed Trump’s chances had shot up to 94.6% Tuesday evening from 62% early in the morning.
Meanwhile, financial markets have also started to price in a Trump victory, as the dollar, Treasury yields, Bitcoin, and shares of Trump Media and Technology took off in after-hours trading.
The New York Times election tracker gives Trump an 89% chance of victory, and the Washington Post’s forecast says he is slightly favored to win the electoral college.
Last week and over the weekend, prediction markets had shown strong momentum for Harris, who even took the lead briefly on a few exchanges.
Bolstering Harris’s prospects was Saturday’s closely watched Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll conducted by Selzer & Co. that showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
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