US Election 2024: Decoding 5 possible outcome scenarios in Harris vs Trump fight
The voting is underway across the United States of America to elect the nation’s 47th President.
In a few hours from now after the polling closes, the results will start coming in and the world will get to know whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will win the neck-and-neck race to the White House.
Here are the five possible scenarios that are likely to happen in this election:
Donald Trump Becomes US President Again
The first scenario would be for Republican Donald Trump to win elections in a decisive verdict. This would mean Trump winning a second term of his three bids for the nation’s highest office. A candidate has to win at least 270 of the 538 electoral college votes.
At 78, Trump will become the oldest person to assume the office of US President. He will be the first US President to face criminal cases, including the one involving his alleged role in the riots at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021, after he lost the Presidential race to Democrat Joe Biden.
He will be the first convicted person to become US President and sit in the Oval Office. Trump cases a series of criminal cases, including the infamous one involving adult movie star Stormy Daniels. Trump will also be the first US President to be impeached (twice) and re-elected to the office.
The 2016 US elections that Trump won were held on November 8, 2016. Trump won the race through many factors combined to create a political landscape in his favour. He won the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
Kamala Harris Becomes First Female President of US
If Harris, 60, wins, she would be the first female president of the United States of America and the first US president of South Asian origin.
Harris’ win would mean a consecutive win for Democrats in US Presidential Elections. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden won 81,284,666 votes compared to Trump’s 74,224,319.
Biden defeated Trump in Electoral College by winning 306 electoral votes as against Trump’s 232. A majority in the Electoral College — 270 votes — is needed to win the White House.
The Biden campaign recaptured once-reliable blue states (Democrat) that Trump had flipped in 2016, returning Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to the Democratic column. He also won Arizona and Georgia to solidify his victory.
What if there is a tie?
The third scenario can be a tie between the two candidates. This means the two presidential hopefuls – Kamala Harris nor Donald Trump – win 269 electoral votes each. Though unlikely, this scenario remains a possibility in the neck-and-neck election.
A 269-269 Electoral College split could arise under several scenarios. For instance, if Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but Trump takes Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and a single Democratic-leaning district in Nebraska, the race would end in a deadlock.
A tie would trigger a ‘contingent election’ in Congress — a scenario that has never happened in modern US history.
The last time Congress had to choose the president due to a tie was in the 1800, when Thomas Jefferson faced off against incumbent president John Adams. Lawmakers in a deeply divided House of Representatives struggled to reach a consensus, ultimately selecting Jefferson on the 36th ballot.
The prolonged deadlock led to adopting the 12th Amendment to the US Constitution just four years later, aiming to clarify and streamline the election process.
This time, if such a House vote should be necessary, it would take place on January 6, 2025.
Donald Trump wins popular vote, loses Electoral College
One of the scenarios that can arise after the polling is over is that Donald Trump wins thepopular vote but loses the electoral college. This is exactly opposite of what happened in 2016.
In the race in 2016,Trump won theElectoral Collegedespite losing the popular vote and became the President of United States of America.
Remember, a candidate needs to win Electoral College to be the President. Just winning the popular vote doesn’t suffice.
Kamala Harris wins popular vote, loses Electoral College
The fifth scenario would be Kamala Harris winning thepopular vote but losing the Electoral College votes. This has happened previously with, Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016 Presidential race.
Hillary Clinton won over 2.8 million more votes than Trump nationwide. Yet she lost enough key states to be defeated in the Electoral College.
Five presidents in the history of United States of American have won the presi dency without winning the popular vote. Donald Trump was one of them in 2016.
Trump’s opponent, Hillary Clinton won over 2.8 million more votes than Trump nationwide. Yet she lost enough key states to be defeated in the Electoral College. Trump won 306 votes against Clinton’s 232.
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