Feinberg Forecast: Scott’s First Oscar Projections Post Golden Globes and SAG and DGA Awards Nominations
PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by Scott Feinberg, The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards coverage, reflects Scott’s best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these projections by drawing upon conversations with voters and other industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars, and the history of the Oscars itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* * *
Best Picture
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Universal)
2. Barbie (Warner Bros.)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple)
5. American Fiction (Amazon/MGM)
6. The Holdovers (Focus)
7. Past Lives (A24)
8. Anatomy of a Fall (Neon)
9. Maestro (Netflix)
10. The Zone of Interest (A24)
Major Threats
11. Society of the Snow (Netflix)
12. The Color Purple (Warner Bros.)
13. May December (Netflix)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
15. Rustin (Netflix)
Possibilities
16. Saltburn (Amazon/MGM)
17. Air (Amazon/MGM)
18. Origin (Neon)
19. Ferrari (Neon)
Best Director
Frontrunners
1. Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
2. Greta Gerwig (Barbie) — podcast
3. Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
5. Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Major Threats
6. Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
7. Celine Song (Past Lives)
8. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
9. Cord Jefferson (American Fiction)
10. Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
11. Hayao Miyazaki (The Boy and the Heron)
Possibilities
12. Todd Haynes (May December) — podcast
13. Emerald Fennell (Saltburn) — podcast
14. J.A. Bayona (Society of the Snow)
15. Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple)
16. Ava DuVernay (Origin) — podcast
17. Michael Mann (Ferrari)
Best Actor
Frontrunners
1. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) — podcast
2. Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
3. Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
4. Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
5. Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Major Threats
6. Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
7. Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers)
8. Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
Possibilities
9. Matt Damon (Air)
10. Nicolas Cage (Dream Scenario) — podcast
11. Franz Rogowski (Passages)
Best Actress
Frontrunners
1. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
2. Emma Stone (Poor Things) — podcast
3. Margot Robbie (Barbie) — podcast
4. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) — podcast
5. Annette Bening (Nyad)
Major Threats
6. Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
7. Greta Lee (Past Lives)
8. Natalie Portman (May December) — podcast
9. Helen Mirren (Golda) — podcast
Possibilities
10. Alma Pöysti (Fallen Leaves)
11. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin) — podcast
12. Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
13. Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
Best Supporting Actor
Frontrunners
1. Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
2. Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
3. Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
4. Willem Dafoe (Poor Things) — podcast
5. Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Major Threats
6. Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction) — podcast
7. Charles Melton (May December)
8. Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
Possibilities
9. Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
10. Jesse Plemons (Killers of the Flower Moon) — podcast
11. Jamie Bell (All of Us Strangers)
Best Supporting Actress
Frontrunners
1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
2. Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) — podcast
3. Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) — podcast
4. Jodie Foster (Nyad) — podcast
5. Julianne Moore (May December) — podcast
Major Threats
6. Penélope Cruz (Ferrari) — podcast
7. Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) — podcast
8. America Ferrera (Barbie)
9. Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
Possibilities
10. Erika Alexander (American Fiction)
11. Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple) — podcast
12. Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers) — podcast
13. Viola Davis (Air)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)
2. Barbie (Noah Baumbach & Greta Gerwig) — podcast (Gerwig)
3. Poor Things (Tony McNamara)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Eric Roth & Martin Scorsese)
5. American Fiction (Cord Jefferson)
Major Threats
6. The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)
7. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Dave Callaham, Phil Lord & Chris Miller)
8. Society of the Snow (J.A. Bayona, Nicolás Casariego, Jaime Marques & Bernat Vilaplana)
Possibilities
9. All of Us Strangers (Andrew Haigh)
10. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Kelly Fremon Craig)
11. Origin (Ava DuVernay)
Best Original Screenplay
Frontrunners
1. Past Lives (Celine Song)
2. The Holdovers (David Hemingson)
3. Anatomy of a Fall (Arthur Harari & Justine Triet)
4. Maestro (Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
5. May December (Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Major Threats
6. Saltburn (Emerald Fennell)
7. Air (Alex Convery)
Possibilities
8. Rustin (Dustin Lance Black & Julian Breece)
9. Asteroid City (Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola)
Best International Feature
Frontrunners
1. The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)
2. Society of the Snow (Spain)
3. The Taste of Things (France)
4. Four Daughters (Tunisia)
5. The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
Major Threats
6. Perfect Days (Japan)
7. 20 Days in Mariupol (Ukraine)
Can’t Yet Call
Godland (Iceland)
Totem (Mexico)
Io Capitano (Italy)
Fallen Leaves (Finland)
The Promised Land (Denmark)
The Mother of All Lies (Morocco)
Amerikatsi (Armenia)
The Monk and the Gun (Bhutan)
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunners
1. American Symphony (Netflix)
2. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (Apple) — podcast (Davis Guggenheim)
3. Beyond Utopia (Roadside)
4. Stamped from the Beginning (Netflix) — podcast (Roger Ross Williams)
5. 20 Days in Mariupol (PBS)
Major Threats
6. The Eternal Memory (MTV)
7. Bobi Wine: The People’s President (Nat Geo)
8. Four Daughters (Kino Lorber)
9. To Kill a Tiger (still seeking U.S. distribution)
10. Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Kino Lorber/Zeitgeist)
Can’t Yet Call
32 Sounds (Abramorama)
Apolonia, Apolonia (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project (HBO)
In the Rearview (Film Movement)
A Still Small Voice (Abramorama)
Best Animated Feature
Frontrunners
1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Sony)
2. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS)
3. Elemental (Pixar) — podcast (Pete Docter)
4. Nimona (Netflix)
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie (Illumination)
Major Threats
6. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem (Paramount)
7. Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget (Netflix)
8. Leo (Netflix)
9. Wish (Disney)
10. They Shot the Piano Player (Sony Classics)
Can’t Yet Call
Amazing Maurice (Viva)
Deep Sea (Viva)
Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibbertia (GKIDS)
The First Slam Dunk (GKIDS)
Migration (Illumination)
Robot Dreams (Neon)
Stopmotion (IFC)
Suzume (Toho)
Trolls Band Together (DreamWorks)
Best Cinematography
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Rodrigo Prieto)
3. Poor Things (Robbie Ryan)
4. The Zone of Interest (Lukasz Zal)
5. Maestro (Matthew Libatique)
Major Threats
6. Barbie (Rodrigo Prieto)
7. Saltburn (Linus Sandgren)
8. The Color Purple (Dan Laustsen)
9. Society of the Snow (Pedro Luque)
10. Ferrari (Erik Messerschmidt)
11. Napoleon (Dariusz Wolski)
Possibilities
12. Past Lives (Shabier Kirchner)
13. May December (Christopher Blauvelt)
14. The Taste of Things (Jonathan Ricquebourg)
15. The Holdovers (Eigil Byrid)
16. Air (Robert Richardson)
17. The Killer (Erik Messerschmidt)
Best Costume Design
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
2. Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jacqueline West)
4. The Color Purple (Francine Jamison-Tanchuck)
5. Wonka (Lindy Hemming)
Major Threats
6. Napoleon (David Crossman & Janty Yates)
7. Maestro (Mark Bridges)
8. The Little Mermaid (Colleen Atwood)
9. Oppenheimer (Ellen Mirojnick)
10. Priscilla (Stacey Battat)
Possibilities
11. Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret (Ann Roth)
12. Ferrari (Massimo Cantini Parrini)
13. Asteroid City (Milena Canonero)
14. Saltburn (Sophie Canale)
17. The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes (Trish Summerville)
Best Film Editing
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
2. Poor Things (Yorgos Mavropsaridis)
3. Barbie (Nick Houy)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Schoonmaker)
5. The Holdovers (Kevin Tent)
Major Threats
6. Maestro (Michelle Tesoro)
7. Ferrari (Pietro Scalia)
8. The Killer (Kirk Baxter)
9. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Michael Andrews)
10. Past Lives (Keith Fraase)
Possibilities
11. Air (William Goldenberg)
12. American Fiction (Hilda Rasula)
13. The Zone of Interest (Paul Watts)
14. Mission: Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One (Eddie Hamilton)
15. The Color Purple (Jon Poll)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Frontrunners
1. Maestro (Kay Georgiou, Sian Grigg, Kazu Hiro & Lori McCoy-Bell)
2. Poor Things (Mark Couler, Nadia Stacey & Josh Weston)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Kay Georgiou & Thomas Nellen)
4. Golda (Suzi Battersby, Ashra Kelly-Blue & Karen Hartley Thomas)
5. Society of the Snow (Ana López-Puigcerver, Belén López-Puigcerver, David Martí & Montse Ribé)
Major Threats
6. Oppenheimer (Luisa Abel, Jason Hamer, Jaime Leigh McIntosh & Ahou Mofid)
7. Ferrari (Elisabetta Arlotti, Nicolas Iles, Feredrico Martellacci & Leonardo Signoretti)
8. Napoleon (Jana Carboni & Francesco Pegoretti)
9. Beau Is Afraid (Félix Larivière & Colin Penman)
10. The Last Voyage of the Demeter (TBD)
Best Original Score
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Robbie Robertson)
3. Poor Things (Jerskin Fendrix)
4. Barbie (Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt)
5. The Zone of Interest (Mica Levi)
Major Threats
6. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Daniel Pemberton)
7. The Holdovers (Mark Orton)
8. Elemental (Thomas Newman)
9. American Fiction (Laura Karpman)
10. Society of the Snow (Michael Giacchino)
Possibilities
11. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (John Williams)
12. American Symphony (Jon Batiste)
13. The Boy and the Heron (Joe Hisaishi)
14. The Color Purple (Kris Bowers)
15. Saltburn (Anthony Willis)
Best Original Song
Frontrunners
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie), Billie Eilish & Finneas — podcasts (1 and 2)
2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie), Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcast (Ronson)
3. “Road to Freedom” (Rustin), Lenny Kravitz — podcast
4. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony), Jon Batiste & Dan Wilson
5. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot), Diane Warren — podcast
Major Threats
6. “Dance the Night” (Barbie), Caroline Ailin, Dua Lipa, Mark Ronson & Andrew Wyatt — podcasts (Lipa & Ronson)
7. “High Life” (Flora and Son), John Carney & Gary Clark
8. “Meet in the Middle” from Flora and Son, John Carney, Gary Clark & Eve Hewson
9. “Keep It Movin’” (The Color Purple), Denisia Andrews, Halle Bailey, Brittany Coney & Morten Ristorp
10. “Can’t Catch Me Now” (The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes), Dan Nigro & Olivia Rodrigo — podcast (Rodrigo)
Possibilities
11. “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon, Scott George
12. “Quiet Eyes” (Past Lives), Zach Dawes & Sharon Von Etten
13. “Am I Dreaming” (Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse), Michael Dean, Peter Lee Johnson, Rakim Mayers, Landon Wayne & Leland Wayne
14. “Superpower (I)” (The Color Purple), Terius Gesteelde-Diamant
15. “Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)” from Asteroid City, Wes Anderson & Jarvis Cocker
Best Production Design
Frontrunners
1. Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
2. Oppenheimer (Ruth De Jong & Claire Kaufman)
3. Killers of the Flower Moon (Jack Fish & Adam Willis)
4. Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price & Szusza Mihalek)
5. Maestro (Rena DeAngelo & Kevin Thompson)
Major Threats
6. Saltburn (Suzie Davis & Charlotte Diricks)
7. Asteroid City (Kris Moran & Adam Stockhausen)
8. Wonka (Nathan Crowley & Lee Sandales)
9. The Color Purple (Paul D. Austerberry & Larry Dias)
10. Napoleon (Elli Griff & Arthur Max)
11. Society of the Snow (Alain Bainée & Angela Nahum)
Possibilites
12. The Zone of Interest (Joanna Kus, Chris Oddy & Katarzyna Sikora)
13. Ferrari (Maria Djurkovic & Sophie Phillips)
14. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Patrick O’Keefe)
15. Priscilla (Patricia Cuccia & Tamara Deverell)
16. Air (François Audouy & Jan Pascale)
17. May December (Sam Lisenco & Jess Royal)
Best Sound
Frontrunners
1. Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell & Gary A. Rizzo)
2. Maestro (Richard King, Steve Morrow, Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder & Dean Zupancic)
3. Ferrari (Tony Lamberti, Lee Orloff, Andy Nelson & Bernard Weiser)
4. Killers of the Flower Moon (John Pritchett, Philip Stockton & Mark Ulano)
5. Barbie (Dan Kenyon, Ai-Ling Lee, Kevin O’Connell & Nina Rice)
Major Threats
6. The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn)
7. Napoleon (Stephane Bucher, James Harrison, Paul Massey, William Miller & Oliver Tarney)
8. The Killer (Ren Klyce, Drew Kunin, Jeremy Molod & Stephen Urata)
9. The Creator (Erik Aadahl, Tom Ozanich, Ethan Van Der Ryn, Ian Voigt & Dean Zupancic)
10. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One (Chris Burdon, James H. Mather & Chris Munro)
Best Visual Effects
Frontrunners
1. Poor Things
2. Society of the Snow
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. The Creator
5. Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One
Major Threats
6. Napoleon
7. Godzilla: Minus One
8. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
9. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
10. Rebel Moon: Part One — A Child of Fire
Best Animated Short
Can’t Yet Call
27 (ARTE Mediathek)
Boom
Eeva (Miyu)
Humo (Smoke)
I’m Hip
A Kind of Testament
Koerkorter (Dog Apartment)
Letter to a Pig (Miyu)
Ninety-Five Senses
Once Upon a Studio (Disney)
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
Pete (The Criterion Channel)
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko
Wild Summon
Best Documentary Short
Frontrunners
1. The ABCs of Book Banning (MTV) — podcast (Sheila Nevins)
2. Camp Courage (Netflix)
3. Deciding Vote (The New Yorker)
4. The Barber of Little Rock (The New Yorker)
5. Last Song from Kabul (MTV)
Major Threats
The Last Repair Shop (L.A. Times/Searchlight)
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó (Hulu)
Can’t Yet Call
Bear
Between Earth & Sky (POV)
Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games
How We Get Free
If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis
Island in Between
Oasis (New York Times Op-Docs)
Wings of Dust (still seeking U.S. distribution)
Best Live-Action Short
Frontrunners
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (Netflix)
2. Strange Way of Life (Sony Classics) — podcast (Pedro Almodóvar)
3. The After (Netflix) — podcast (David Oyelowo)
Can’t Yet Call
The Anne Frank Gift Shop (Reboot)
An Avocado Pit
Bienvenidos a Los Angeles
Dead Cat
Good Boy
Invincible
Invisible Border
Knight of Fortune (The New Yorker)
The One Note Man
Red, White and Blue
The Shepherd (Disney)
Yellow
