Bostic sees ongoing disinflation leading to possible cut, but nothing locked in

Investing.com — Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic on Thursday welcomed recent economic data pointing to slowing inflation — a trend that he expects to continue, paving the way for a potential rate cut toward the end of the year. 

While acknowledging that the Fed isn’t yet there on its goal to bring inflation down to 2%, Bostic said that his current outlook is for an ongoing fall in inflation, which would make appropriate to cut rates later in the year, but cautioned that nothing is locked in.

The remarks arrive a day after a the data for April, showed that inflation slowed more than expected, with the Atlanta Fed president flagging slowing shelter inflation as a major development. 

Bostic did caution, however, that that one data point is not a trend, and said there were “a number of different scenarios” that could yet play out on the inflation front. 

Bostic has been one of the most vocal Fed members expressing doubt on the need for multiple rate cuts in the wake of inflation still running above the central bank’s target. 

Recent market consensus have finally caught up with his view as bets on multiple rate cuts seen earlier this year have been pared back to just two — with September now expected to be the start of the cutting cycle.  

That is still fewer than than the three cuts for 2024 that Fed members had projected at the March meeting. A fresh set of FOMC economic projections are expected next month.