There’s no denying that Las Vegas faces several headwinds ahead. The real question, though, is how it will respond.
The June gaming revenue and visitation reports for Las Vegas, released this week by the Nevada Gaming Control Board and the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors’ Authority, respectively, represented something of a mixed bag.
With regard to visitation, the data was grim. The LVCVA reported total visitation of just over 3 million for the month, representing an 11.3% year-on-year decrease. Every month so far in 2025 has seen YoY decreases for overall visitation.
For the Strip specifically, total occupancy was down 8.4% in June, and the market’s revPAR, or revenue per available room, fell 13% YoY. So far in 2025, Strip occupancy has posted declines in every month except for January. Room occupancy levels for 2025 have been impacted by the closure of The Mirage and The Tropicana, two fixtures on the Strip for decades. Leading casino executives also anticipated tough comps from 2024 after Las Vegas hosted the Super Bowl for the first time in city history.
The numbers look worse for the city’s top international feeder markets, Canada and Mexico. Harry Reid International Airport reported that traffic for Air Canada was down 13% month-over-month in June, and 33% YoY. Aeromexico traffic was up significantly over May, but down 22% when compared to the prior year.
Yet despite this, gaming revenue was steady, somewhat surprisingly. Per the NGCB, the state overall registered GGR of $1.33 billion in June, up 3.5% from last year. Clark County, which encapsulates Las Vegas and other nearby markets, was also up 3.5%. The Strip was essentially flat (+0.9%) at $765.2 million, which was enough to snap a four-month streak of declines.
Both the state overall and Clark County ended the fiscal year down less than 1% from an all-time record the previous year, but the Strip finished FY25 down 3%.
Top CEOs remain bullish
So far, MGM Resorts and Caesars Entertainment are the biggest-name Las Vegas operators to release second-quarter earnings, with Wynn Resorts set to report next week. Caesars saw its Las Vegas revenue fall 3.7% YoY in Q2, and MGM reported a nearly identical 4% decrease for the market.
Executives from all three companies downplayed economic concerns in Q1 calls, which largely coincided with US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements in early April. While the S&P 500 suffered its worst day since 2020 on 3 April, the index has pared the losses and is up 6% year-to-date. Uncertainty on a potential global trade war has triggered volatility on financial markets worldwide. On earnings calls this week, executives from Caesars and MGM have acknowledged some difficulties.
Caesars CEO Tom Reeg conceded to analysts that a “leak” started in Las Vegas in the spring. Yet he followed that by saying that running three-month outlooks have now stabilised again. “It’s as if your tire had a leak and you patched it,” he asserted.
MGM CEO Bill Hornbuckle went further, pounding the table for future optimism in a market that has historically grown steadily for decades despite blips of underperformance.
“I want to take this opportunity to emphasise that Las Vegas remains fundamentally solid,” Hornbuckle said on his company’s call. “MGM Grand accounted for over 80% of the decline, where results were impacted by a uniquely disruptive room remodel.”
In terms of stock performance, MGM is down about 4% from last August, while Caesars is down more than 31%. After falling to three-year lows at $25 a share in April, MGM has rebounded about 40% since.
Wynn, which has yet to report, is up about 29% over the last 12 months, but the company’s adjusted property EBITDAR for Las Vegas was down by $22.9 million in Q1. In response to economic uncertainty, Wynn also shelved a planned remodel of its Encore tower on the Strip.
Rise of the ancillaries
Meanwhile, the Strip’s struggles have created an opportunity for several other southern Nevada markets, including downtown Las Vegas, the Boulder Strip and the Las Vegas locals market. All three outperformed the Strip in FY25, especially the locals market, which posted nearly $2 billion in GGR for the fiscal year, +5% YoY.
Boyd Gaming and Red Rock Resorts, two off-Strip Vegas stalwarts, have seen favourable results. Boyd reported a 3% YoY group revenue gain to $1 billion for the period, as its Las Vegas segment had its best quarter in years.
“We achieved our strongest property-level revenue and adjusted EBITDAR growth in more than three years, with property-level margins once again exceeding 40%,” Boyd CEO Keith Smith said on 24 July. “This growth was supported by continued strength in play from our core customers, as well as improvements in retail play.”
Red Rock fared even better, posting group net income of $108.3 million, an incredible 55% jump from a year ago. Net revenue and adjusted EBITDA from its Las Vegas operations increased 6% and 7% over last year, respectively.
“While the Strip relies heavily on tourism, conventions, hotel-driven revenue, we are anchored by a gaming-centric business model, right? We’re focused on a deeply loyal customer base,” Red Rock CFO Stephen Cootey told analysts on 29 July.
The duality of Sin City
All of the above illustrates the complexity of making generalised predictions for the market overall. The data tells us that the Strip is unquestionably slowing down; yet it also tells us that the rest of the region is faring very well. Will both trends continue? Some, like Fantini Research founder Frank Fantini, believe so.
“The Las Vegas Strip may be sound,” he wrote in his latest column for GGB. “More conventions will return. But it also may be mature, meaning it is more susceptible to economic trends, consumer confidence and, yes, treating customers well, even those who aren’t on their employer’s tab or plunking down black chips and higher at the gaming tables.”
Others are holding steady for now, waiting to see if the city’s much ballyhooed future event and conference schedule actually drives results. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon maintained “Outperform” ratings for both Caesars and MGM this week, while also acknowledging the current “softness” in the Las Vegas market.
“Similar to CZR, MGM pointed to Vegas softness but expects Vegas to return to growth in Q4 and into 2026 given solid group/convention bookings later in the year,” Beynon said in his MGM note Friday.
Fantini, on the other hand, threw caution to that line of thinking.
“Casino operators appear somewhat sanguine about the trends: Canadians will come back some day; capital projects aimed at freshening properties continue; visitation is affected by events; and next year already has a stronger convention calendar, with 140,000-attendee Con/Agg due back, for example,” he wrote. “However, that isn’t growth, as Con/Agg and others then rotate out of town, creating tough future comparisons.”
