2024 Paris Olympics: Bold Player Predictions for Team USA and Group Phase NBA Stars

The 2024 Olympics are here. And 12 nations, headlined by LeBron James, Stephen Curry and Team USA, are ready to compete for a gold medal in basketball.

But they are, of course, far from the only country with star power. The 1992 Dream Team faced just nine NBA players, while this year’s USA squad is heading to a tournament that features over 60.

And some of those stars from around the globe could make as much noise as the Americans during group play.

Bold predictions for players from all three groups can be found below.

Franz Wagner’s jumper became a pretty common topic whenever he came up during the 2023-24 NBA season.

Forget the fact that he probably had his best season in just about every other aspect of his game, few could look past the 28.1 three-point percentage (and yes, that’s a bad number).

But Wagner was a solid shooter over his first two seasons, when he hit 35.8 percent of his triples. And he should be motivated to have a strong tournament for his home country, after missing most of Germany’s run to gold in the FIBA World Cup last year.

With a little extra focus and Olympics stakes, Wagner’s jumper will return to form, giving him a little momentum heading into next season.

It looked like he was starting to fit in on this star-laden team by the end of its run of friendly games, but there’s still a bit of a stylistic clash between Joel Embiid and the rest of Team USA (and international basketball, in general).

Embiid is one of the best scorers in the world, but he’s looked sort of plodding in transition. The slightly smaller court has made his post touches feel cramped. His decision-making out of double-teams has been suspect. And FIBA referees are far more hesitant to reward foul hunting.

On balance, Embiid will almost certainly still be a plus for Team USA, but there was a pretty distinct advantage to having Anthony Davis on the floor in the friendlies.

The USA moved up and down the floor faster. Davis’ touches didn’t stop the ball movement or throw off offensive rhythm. He’s looked happy to get his offense out of rolls or offensive rebounds. He’s not demanding post touches. And he’s certainly been more mobile on defense.

The Americans have a luxury that no one else in this tournament does. Deciding which of your megastars should play most isn’t the worst problem to have. But by the end of this tournament, it’ll be clear that Davis just fits the international game a little better.

Giannis Antetokounmpo can dominate any team in just about any setting, and he’s going to have to for Greece to survive the so-called group of death.

His country is in Group A, with Australia, Canada and Spain. And he’s the only NBA player on Greece’s roster.

That’s not necessarily an indictment on their chances. They have several players who’ve had long, successful careers overseas, including Nik Calathes and Kostas Papanikolaou.

But Giannis is going to carry a heavy scoring burden. And that’s going to lead him to a 35-plus-point performance.

There are plenty of other stars in action, but balanced scoring is a little more common in international play. The quarters are shorter, too. So that kind of total will likely give Giannis the single-game high for group play, too.

Team USA has the greatest shooter of all time in its roster. And Stephen Curry has earned that distinction mostly shooting from behind the NBA’s three-point line, which is 23 feet and nine inches from the hoop everywhere but the corners (where it’s 22 feet away).

The FIBA line, meanwhile, is just over 22 feet out. That little extra distance may not mean much (Curry’s career percentage on twos from 22 feet out is 43.3, barely ahead of his career 42.6 three-point percentage), but the amount of attention Curry’s teammates will command does.

With opponents having to focus on the likes of LeBron, Embiid, Anthony Edwards and Kevin Durant, Curry’s touches on the perimeter should come with a decent amount of space. And he’s going to convert the wide-open looks at a high enough rate to finish group play with a 50-plus overall three-point percentage.

Nikola Jokić doesn’t play quite as much point center for Serbia as he does for the Denver Nuggets. The national team runs a lot of its actions through Vasilije Micić and Bogdan Bogdanović, but there will still be at least one game during group play in which Jokić has to take over as both a scorer and playmaker.

That’ll obviously lead to the double-figures totals he needs in points and assists for the triple-double, and the rebounds will be a given. Serbia has a decent amount of size on the roster, but Jokić seems even more intent on dominating the glass for his home country than he does for Denver.

If Jokić does indeed reach double-digits in three different major statistical categories, he’ll be just the third player in recorded Olympics history to record a triple-double. Alexander Belov pulled it off in 1976, and LeBron registered one in 2012.

This may not seem all that bold for a soon-to-be-36-year-old who’s dealt with a calf strain throughout Team USA’s run of friendlies, but Durant has long made scoring look completely effortless, including in international play.

KD has won a FIBA World Cup and three Olympic golds. He was the leading scorer for Team USA in each of those tournaments (and by pretty significant margins in each). He’s never averaged under 19 points in a major tournament for this team.

In 2012, he led a cast that included Carmelo Anthony, LeBron and Kobe Bryant.

But again, he is aging toward his late 30s. And with the calf injury, assuming he’s back for group play, coach Steve Kerr is likely to take it easy on Durant’s minutes load. He has plenty of talent on the wings to keep KD’s legs fresh.

There’s tons of scoring on this team, too. Edwards, LeBron, Curry, Embiid and Devin Booker could all go off in random games. And Durant will put up more modest scoring numbers because of that firepower.

The talent level in Group A is pretty bonkers.

Australia has eight current NBA players, counting Jack McVeigh, who’s headed to the Houston Rockets this season. Greece has Giannis. Spain is the No. 2 country in FIBA’s world rankings and boasts a roster with tons of experience in major international tournaments.

Any of those three nations emerging with the top spot from this group wouldn’t be shocking, but we’re going with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Canadian squad.

Fresh off a second-place finish in 2023-24 MVP voting, SGA’s offense has looked every bit as smooth in international play as it did in the NBA. And he’s leading a roster with 10 active NBA players, including Jamal Murray.

With those two, Andrew Nembhard and Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Canada may have the second-best guard corps in the tournament.

The advantage, ultimately, is about SGA, though. As good as Group A is, there isn’t really an individual defender outside Canada’s roster who can really bother Gilgeous-Alexander, who’ll likely average around 20 points with his three-level scoring and ability to get to the line.

There are a bunch of players who could lead Team USA in scoring during the group phase. We’ve already mentioned most of them.

But even on a team filled with alpha-like personalities, none seem to crave scoring quite like Edwards.

Throughout last year’s FIBA World Cup and all of the friendly games leading up to this tournament, Edwards has looked intent on scoring at every opportunity every time he’s on the floor.

And with KD potentially hampered by the calf injury, Embiid a little better suited for NBA basketball than the FIBA game and LeBron and Curry both a little more willing to distribute, Edwards is going to emerge from group play with Team USA’s highest scoring average.

Group B isn’t quite as stacked as Group A, but Germany boasts Dennis Schröder and the Wagner brothers and is coming off a FIBA World Cup gold. Japan has a pair of intriguing forwards in Rui Hachimura and Yuta Watanabe. And Brazil has some veterans of international play in Marcelinho Huertas, Raul Neto and Bruno Caboclo.

But France, with its jumbo frontcourt of Victor Wembanyama and Rudy Gobert, is going to come out on top of this group. And Wemby, specifically, is going to have another coming out party.

Plenty of NBA fans are well acquainted with the phenom, but his San Antonio Spurs didn’t generate a ton of attention on the team level.

The Olympics will be a great showcase for Wembanyama’s truly unique combination of size (7’4″), perimeter skills and rim protection. Fans will be blown away by 4-5 pick-and-rolls between him and Gobert. His ability to cover ground will flummox every opponent in the group, including Germany.

And despite being six spots back of Wagner and company in the FIBA world rankings, France will lead Group B in points.

Edwards may lead Team USA in points per game, but LeBron will still be its leader. Even at 39 years old, it’s been clear throughout these friendlies that his teammates revere him. They’ve generally deferred to him in the game’s biggest moments. And he’s been the primary playmaker on plenty of possessions.

LeBron will be near the top of the team leaderboard in both points and assists, which will make him its biggest offensive generator.

And in case any of these group play games go down to the wire, count on all these superstars to look to LeBron to take them over the top, just as he did in the closing seconds of their game against South Sudan.