2025 NBA Rookie of the Year Projections After Las Vegas Summer League

Projections for this year’s NBA rookies seem slightly clearer after Las Vegas Summer League.

There should have been some performance takeaways that validated scouting reports’ strengths and ideas of what can show or translate.

Role and opportunity will still factor heavily into who winds up winning the Rookie of the Year award. Some of the top performers in July will have to play behind established NBA veterans in 2024-25, while other rookies will have starter minutes and a green light to play through mistakes and produce.

Based on summer-league play, scouting and projected playing time, these are our favorites to win 2025 NBA Rookie of the Year.

Even without a reliable jump shot, Ron Holland has always managed to produce by tapping into his open-floor speed, explosion in the half court, knack for scoring in the lane and motor.

A weak three-point shot will make it difficult for the rookie to be efficient, and between Ausar Thompson presumably ahead of him in Detroit’s pecking order, and Tobias Harris suddenly in the picture, it will be too tough for Holland to consistently put up numbers.

Ultra-athletic, quick defensively and constantly improving ball-handling skills for creation, Holland still has a real case as the Pistons’ second-best prospect behind Cade Cunningham.

His shotmaking right now is just too erratic, and Detroit has other wings who’ll earn minutes before the 19-year-old in 2024-25.

One of the biggest storylines during summer league was Kel’el Ware’s 18.3 points on 58.4 percent shooting through eight games.

Playing alongside pros made an obvious difference, and it made the game look far easier for the 7-footer who didn’t have great playmakers at Indiana.

With a 9’4.5″ standing reach, Ware has tremendous finishing tools that NBA passers will help bring to life. He’s going to consistently rack up easy baskets just by waiting in the dunker’s spot, rolling, crashing the glass and running the floor.

There’s more upside tied to Ware’s skill level around the post and shooting range, but those are more longer-term areas to develop. He’ll have to back up Bam Adebayo in 2024-25, which will limit his Rookie of the Year chances.

However, if Ware continues to consistently provide his guards with an easy-basket target, and his size, length and mobility translate to effective rim protection, coach Erik Spoelstra could be enticed to play big and use Ware with Adebayo at the 4.

Summer league exposed Alex Sarr’s raw offensive skill level and feel.

He should still put together an enticing regular-season highlight reel of athletic finishes, three-point shooting, pull-ups and fallaways that keeps coaches and fans patient and excited long term. And the minutes will be there—the Wizards lack frontcourt weapons and should allow the rookie to play through mistakes during a season with zero expectations to win.

He’ll still make the biggest impact as a rookie with his defensive foot speed, recoveries and playmaking on the ball.

But Sarr just isn’t advanced in any one scoring area yet. He won’t shoot a high percentage on jump shots or create consistently. And despite the tools and athleticism, he can be weak around the basket against strong shot-blockers. The offensive inefficiency for one of the league’s weaker teams will make it difficult to build a Rookie of the Year case.

The Atlanta Hawks figure to give Zaccharie Risacher immediate minutes and freedom after drafting him No. 1 overall. He does seem to be in a favorable spot with a creator/playmaker like Trae Young and a power forward in Jalen Johnson who can handle, pass and generate gravity.

Risacher will be in position to play to his strengths as a transition finisher, off-ball shooter and spot-up slasher—the same role he excelled in last season with JL Bourg.

He’s just going to be too much of a complementary weapon to consistently put up scoring numbers. Risacher also still needs to work on making plays for himself in the half court. He’ll be reliant on open-floor opportunities, being set up and consistently making threes.

Risacher won’t put up many supporting assist or rebounding stats to strengthen a Rookie of the Year case. And though he could be named the starter, he’s still likely to split minutes with Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter and newly acquired Dyson Daniels, whose defense was presumably a key selling point to Atlanta’s front office.

Landing with the Los Angeles Lakers may result in fewer opportunities for Dalton Knecht to put up big numbers. But the scoring he does provide off the bench could have more meaning and impact if the Lakers can get back to the playoffs.

L.A. could use more offense off the bench, and Knecht figures to play a big role with the team’s second unit. He just averaged 18.0 points in six summer-league games, showing the variety of ways he can score from on and off the ball.

Knecht’s shooting should pose an immediate threat, particularly with how quickly he gets his shot up, and how he’s able to bury jumpers off abrupt pull-ups or movement. It’s his plug-and-play skill that could also work well and be valued with the starters.

But he’s also an athletic finisher in transition and tough driver in the half court.

Projected low assist and rebounding rates (and likely underwhelming defense) just mean Knecht’s Rookie of the Year case will be built strictly around his points-per-game average and the boost of three-point shooting he gives the Lakers.

A productive summer league highlighted Matas Buzelis’ exciting scoring versatility and athleticism around the rim. Regardless of how inefficient he is this season—he shot 33.7 percent from the floor in Las Vegas—there is still going to be plenty of excitement over the potential of a 6’9″ forward who delivers flashes of ball-handling, three-point shooting, specialty shotmaking and explosive finishes.

At this point, he still doesn’t excel at one specific skill, which is what’s likely to lead to underwhelming percentages and inconsistency. He can initiate fast breaks, but his handles loosen in the half court. He can make tough jumpers, but not threes regularly.

On the flip side, when it’s all working, Buzelis can have explosive scoring outputs, and there are bound to be games this year when he puts up 20-plus points.

Buzelis’ chances of making a Rookie of the Year case will spike if the Bulls manage to trade Zach LaVine. However, he could still play a significant role with DeMar DeRozan in Sacramento and Chicago lacking depth at the forward spots. The Bulls falling behind early in the standings could also lead to them prioritizing both Buzelis’ development and their 2025 NBA lottery odds.

In summer league, Stephon Castle showed the different ways he can impact games without needing shooting range.

Other strengths of his game will translate. With the ball, his change of pace, physicality and passing instincts will continue to work for driving, finishing after contact and playmaking. He has a great feel for keeping defenders off balance and moving them with his power before using touch shots in the lane or vision to set up teammates.

At 6’6″, 215 pounds, he should immediately give the Spurs a tough perimeter defender.

With those physical tools, coach Gregg Popovich should feel like he can play Castle at different positions, which will lead to more opportunities for the rookie to hit the floor. Even with the arrival of Chris Paul and likelihood that Devin Vassell and Harrison Barnes both start, Castle should still be looking at plenty of minutes. He could be used as a secondary creator with the starters, a backup point guard for the second unit or a big-wing defender at the 3.

A shaky jump shot may make it tough to consistently score in volume, but Castle should find other ways to reach double figures while adding supporting assist and rebounding numbers.

The Minnesota Timberwolves traded up to give Rob Dillingham a chance at playing a sixth-man role for a title contender.

It seems like the perfect situation for a guard who’s wired to score and could have trouble with shot selection and defense. Dillingham should have the chance to play to his strengths, providing creation and shotmaking firepower off Minnesota’s bench.

But he also averaged 7.6 assists in Las Vegas, and with Mike Conley turning 37 before the season, Dillingham figures to play some minutes at the point, handling the ball alongside Anthony Edwards.

Dillingham also shot 47.8 percent off the catch at Kentucky, per Synergy Sports, a good sign for his potential to look comfortable alongside Minnesota’s established top options.

The rookie’s shot diet and ambitious handles are bound to come with high turnover games and poor shooting nights. But the productive nights should outweigh the off ones. Minnesota will get useful offense from Dillingham, a dangerous iso and ball-screen scorer who’s also shown he can leverage his elusiveness off the dribble into playmaking for teammates.

While the NBA scouting community sounded hesitant about projecting upside with Zach Edey, it’s easier to get behind the idea that he’s built to contribute right away.

He happened to also land in a favorable situation with the Memphis Grizzlies, a team with a need for an interior presence. They finished 29th in field goals made within five feet, and Jaren Jackson Jr. and Santi Aldama each averaged fewer than 6.0 boards per game.

At full strength with a setup man and gravitational force like Ja Morant, and spacing provided by Desmond Bane and Jackson, Edey should receive plenty of easy-finish opportunities and room to operate around the low post.

It’s also reasonable to expect the Grizzlies will use Edey with the starters, considering they took him No. 9 overall. With regular minutes, just playing to his strengths as a play-finisher, over-the-shoulder scorer, offensive rebounder and defensive paint presence, he’s bound to register routine double-doubles and blocked shots for a team that should climb back up the Western Conference standings.

And in this class, that type of production and projected efficiency (for a playoff team) could be enough to win Rookie of the Year.

Reed Sheppard’s biggest road block to Rookie of the Year votes will be the Houston Rockets’ balanced, deep rotation.

He may have a case to go No. 1 in the re-draft by next March. Putting up big numbers right away just may be challenging while sharing minutes and the ball with guards/wings Fred VanVleet, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.

Sheppard is coming off arguably the most impressive summer-league performance in his class. He averaged 20.0 points on 50.0 percent shooting despite missing 13-of-18 threes. And range will be the least of his problems in the NBA. The fact that he shot 58.3 percent inside the arc and averaged 5.3 assists were highly encouraging signs, given the pre-draft questions about his creation, finishing and playmaking potential.

The Rockets and the rest of the league will find out that Sheppard’s handles and on-ball shiftiness were underrated and partially masked at Kentucky. He showed in Las Vegas that he’s a threat to shake defenders off the dribble, get to spots, score off pull-ups and drives and facilitate with a point guard’s passing feel.

It wouldn’t be surprising if it becomes obvious that Sheppard will eventually be a long-term replacement in the starting lineup for either VanVleet or Green.