2025 NCAA Tournament bracket South Region: March Madness predictions, upsets, players to watch
After Auburn fell to Tennessee in the semifinals of the SEC Tournament — its third loss in four games — Tigers coach Bruce Pearl made a case for why his team should still be the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. In his plea, Pearl noted that his team boasts one of the “strongest résumés in the history of college basketball.”
The selection committee clearly agreed and rewarded Auburn — with its 16-5 Quad 1 record — the top spot in the bracket. But that doesn’t change the reality for the Tigers entering the Big Dance. It’s a team that lost two games during the first four months of the season but has dropped three already in March.
“I can hardly wait ’til next weekend to start playing again,” Pearl said. “Let’s get to Sunday, find out where we’re going, find out who we’re playing and let’s get back to work. I’m looking forward, not back.”
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Assuming the Tigers advance past either Alabama State or Saint Francis in the first round, things could get interesting quickly in the second round against either No. 8 seed Louisville or No. 9 seed Creighton.
Elsewhere in the bracket, No. 4 seed Texas A&M and No. 5 seed Michigan could have their hands full early against potential Cinderellas. The Aggies face No. 13 seed Yale just one year after Yale knocked Auburn out of the field as a No. 14 seed. The Wolverines will have to handle No. 12 seed UC San Diego, which enters the NCAA Tournament with the nation’s longest active winning streak at 15.
Elsewhere in the South Region, a First Four meeting between No. 11 seeds North Carolina and San Diego State will create a difficult first-round matchup for No. 6 seed Ole Miss, which is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019 under second-year coach Chris Beard.
No. 14 seeds Lipscomb and No. 15 seed Bryant are each making their second-ever Big Dance appearances and will be seeking to pull stunning upsets.
Best first-round game
(7) Marquette vs. (10) New Mexico: This one features an electric guard matchup and a fascinating coaching battle, too. Marquette’s Kam Jones and New Mexico’s Donovan Dent each shoulder major offensive loads as small-ish guards with electric single-game potential. Marquette coach Shaka Smart is trying to get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since he led VCU to the Final Four in 2011. New Mexico coach Richard Pitino has revitalized his career in four seasons with the Lobos and has re-emerged as a hot name on the coaching carousel.
Top potential matchup
(2) Michigan State vs. (5) Michigan: A showdown between No. 1 seed Auburn and No. 2 seed Michigan State would be great. But if Auburn were to stumble, it would open the door for a potential rivalry showdown in the Elite Eight. The Spartans swept the Wolverines in the regular season, but Michigan rebounded from a rough ending to the regular season to win the Big Ten Tournament. In their last meeting, there was kerfuffle that transpired at the end of the game. A game between fierce in-state rivals with a Final Four spot on the line? You can bet that it would be a banger.
March Madness 2025: Michigan wins the Big Ten Tournament, gets No. 5 seed; make it make sense
Kyle Boone
Cinderella team that will surprise
(13) Yale: Yale beat No. 4 seed Auburn in the first round last season and won’t be intimidated in the slightest by a first-round matchup with Texas A&M. The Bulldogs have a ton of returners from last season’s Cinderella moment and were competitive against Purdue and Minnesota in November. Yale is also a good rebounding team, which will give it a fighting chance against the board-crashing Aggies.
Team that will make a far-too-early exit
(8) Louisville: This is a rough draw for Louisville, which has enjoyed an incredible resurgence under first-year coach Pat Kelsey. Kelsey inherited a team that totaled 12 wins combined in two seasons under Kenny Payne and has guided it to a 27-7 (18-2 ACC) record. It’s easy to argue that the Cardinals deserved a better seeding, and a different draw could have paved the path for a Sweet 16 run. But if Louisville gets past No. 9 seed Creighton in the first round, it’s hard imagine UL beating No. 1 overall seed Auburn in the second round. Then again, the Cardinals have defied the odds already just by getting relevant so quickly.
Six players to watch
- Johni Broome, Auburn: Broome is locked in a race with Duke freshman Cooper Flagg for National Player of the Year. The 6-foot-10 senior center is already the SEC Player of the Year after guiding the Tigers to an outright SEC title and the No. 1 overall seed. Broome is both a skilled interior scorer and a great rim protector. He’s also taken strides as a passer and perimeter shooter since debuting in college basketball as a freshman at Morehead State back in 2020-21.
- Jase Richardson, Michigan State: Jason Richardson helped Michigan State coach Tom Izzo to his only national championship in 2000. A quarter-century later, his son is now starring for the same school and same coach. Jase, a freshman guard, is averaging 17.3 points since entering the starting lineup in early February. The left-handed playmaker has all the makings of a March hero.
- Kam Jones, Marquette: Jones shoulders a heavy load for Marquette and is capable of going off for huge numbers. Evidence: he tallied 32 points against Wisconsin and St. John’s,28 against Maryland and Xavier and 27 against Creighton. Each of those are NCAA Tournament teams, and three of those performances came away from home.
- Curtis Jones, Iowa State: If anyone needed a reminder of how good Jones is, he offered one in the Big 12 Tournament with 31 points in a 96-92 loss to BYU. Jones is a bucket, and the Cyclones will be relying even more heavily on him in the Big Dance following the revelation that veteran guard Keshon Gilbert is done for the season.
- Danny Wolf, Michigan: At 7-feet, Wolf is a unicorn capable of orchestrating the pick-and-roll as a ball-handler. But he’s not afraid to throw his weight around on the block. Wolf left an Ivy League education at Yale behind, betting on himself in the NIL era as a unique high-major talent. There is no one else in the field with his combination of size and skill.
- Donovan Dent, New Mexico: Dent led the Mountain West in scoring at 20.6 points and was second in assists at 6.4. The 6-foot-2 junior is a terror in transition and wreaks havoc in the pick-and-roll. There’s rarely a possession that he doesn’t impact with the basketball in his hands, and that’s a good thing for the Lobos.
South Regional winner
(2) Michigan State: Michigan State coach Tom Izzo has been to eight Final Fours during his legendary 30-year run. He knows how to win in March, and he’s got a fantastic potential path through the first three rounds. The Spartans should be able to handle No. 15 seed Bryant and are more physical than either of their potential second-round opponents (Marquette or New Mexico). Michigan State’s best-seeded potential Sweet 16 foe is No. 3 seed Iowa State, which will be without Gilbert for the tournament. A potential matchup between Michigan State and Auburn with a spot in the Final Four at stake would be fantastic. Just remember: it’s never wise sleep on Izzo this time of year.
