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This story was excerpted from Jake Rill’s Orioles Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
BALTIMORE — As the Orioles navigate the offseason, they have several items they’re looking to check off their to-do list.
They need right-handed bats to complement all the lefty hitters in their outfield mix. They need a veteran catcher to serve as a backup to Adley Rutschman. They could add bullpen arms.
But most importantly, they need an ace. Because as things currently stand, there’s a gaping, Corbin Burnes-sized hole at the top of their rotation.
“I do think we’re going to make every strong effort — like we did last year — to bring in somebody who’s proven, healthy, able to help lead the pitching staff, rather than just kind of be depth,” general manager Mike Elias said at the GM Meetings in San Antonio last month. “That’s a very strong hope of ours.”
The Hot Stove should start heating up soon, with the 2024 Winter Meetings set to begin Monday in Dallas. For four days, the baseball world will converge on one place, as team executives and agents will discuss (and possibly even complete) potential moves.
For Baltimore, the burning question remains: Will Burnes return? Or will other options need to be explored? Let’s examine the O’s potential paths.
Bring Burnes back
This would undoubtedly be the most expensive route for the Orioles to take. And while the club’s new David Rubenstein-led ownership group should be more willing to supply the necessary funds for large free-agent contracts, the decision-making process will still be controlled by Elias and his baseball operations department.
As Elias put it last month, Baltimore isn’t going to “spend money indiscriminately this offseason come hell or high water.”
“We’re going to seek good talent evaluation, good long-term investments for the team,” Elias stated.
Do the O’s view a potential six- or seven-year, $200 million-plus mega-contract for the 30-year-old Burnes as a wise investment for the long term? Because that’s what it is likely going to take to land the four-time All-Star right-hander this winter.
The Dodgers recently signed left-hander Blake Snell (who turned 32 today) to a five-year, $182 million deal. Burnes should get a longer, even more lucrative contract, something that another team — perhaps the Giants or Red Sox — could be more likely to give him than the Orioles.
Sign a different free-agent starter
Rather than diving into the deepest part of the free-agent pitching pool to sign Burnes, Baltimore could instead bring in one of the starters who won’t be quite as expensive. It feels like this could be the most likely route — the O’s will still increase their spending, but they’ll be diligent about it.
MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Orioles were “in” on Snell before he signed with the Dodgers. MLB Network’s Jon Paul Morosi has shared that Baltimore is among the teams with interest in right-hander Nathan Eovaldi. Other notable starters on the market include righties Jack Flaherty and Shane Bieber and lefty Sean Manaea.
But the best fit for the O’s could be left-hander Max Fried. According to MLB Network insider Jon Heyman, the Orioles have been among the teams “in on” the 30-year-old southpaw.
Fried is a two-time All-Star with a 2.81 ERA in 112 starts since the beginning of 2020. The downside to signing him is that it would cost Baltimore a Draft pick, as Fried declined a qualifying offer from Atlanta earlier this offseason.
Any of these pitchers, though, wouldn’t be as expensive as Burnes. And somebody like Fried could provide similar production at the top of the O’s rotation (which also doesn’t have a front-line left-handed option).
Trade for Garrett Crochet
Last offseason, Baltimore acquired its ace by getting Burnes in a deal with Milwaukee. Perhaps a trade will again be the best option this winter.
Crochet, 25, has two years of team control remaining on his contract and has been featured in trade rumors for much of 2024. The White Sox are in the midst of a rebuild, so moving the All-Star left-hander for prospects seems to make sense.
One thing to note is the Orioles’ farm system isn’t as deep as it was this time last offseason. This past year, Baltimore has dealt each of the following youngsters in various trades: left-hander DL Hall, infielder Joey Ortiz, righty Jackson Baumeister, outfielder Mac Horvath, outfielder Matthew Etzel, righty Seth Johnson, infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers.
In order to land Crochet, Baltimore may be asked to part with either infielder Coby Mayo (O’s No. 1, MLB Pipeline’s No. 8 overall) or catcher Samuel Basallo (O’s No. 2, No. 13 overall). If the Orioles could keep both and trade for Crochet, the move seems like a no-brainer. Otherwise, they’ll need to consider whether losing Mayo or Basallo is worth it in order to get a new ace.
