6 NFL Free Agents Who Carry the Most Risk and Reward in 2024 Offseason

The start of the 2024 NFL free-agency period is just weeks away, at which point hundreds of potential starting-caliber players will hit the open market.

Which of the elite members of this year’s projected free-agent pool carry the most risk?

In terms of career track record, injuries, consistency and potential cost, here’s a rundown of the names who carry the most risk/reward.

Baker Mayfield truly impressed with 28 touchdown passes to 10 interceptions in his maiden (and possibly sole) campaign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it’s fair to wonder if that was a fluke.

After all, he is nearly 29 and was rarely close to being as productive for much of the five-year run that preceded his time in Florida. In a two-year span, the former No. 1 overall pick was cast aside by three teams: the Cleveland Browns, Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams.

Is it finally coming together for Mayfield? Or did he just do what Geno Smith did with the Seattle Seahawks in 2022? Somebody will pay a quarterback premium to find out.

The guy taken directly after Mayfield atop the 2018 draft is also a wild card on the verge of the open market, as Saquon Barkley has put together just two standout seasons in six years with the New York Giants.

Could a new environment bring out the best in the 27-year-old? Maybe. It’s even possible he hits a groove back in New York. But running backs don’t age well in this league, and the Penn State product has struggled with consistency and/or injuries for much of his pro career.

Barkley experienced some redemption in a Pro Bowl 2022 campaign, but the problem is his yards-per-attempt average plummeted by half-a-yard during a disappointing contract year in 2023.

He’s a brand name who will get paid somewhere, but don’t be surprised if it turns out we’ve seen the best of him.

Five years into Marquise Brown’s career, plenty of questions still surround the talented but often unreliable 2019 first-round pick.

There’s a reason the Baltimore Ravens gave up on the undersized wide receiver just three years into his tenure there, and injuries as well as a lack of support and stability within the Arizona Cardinals offense have conspired to limit the 26-year-old to just 1,283 yards over the course of the last two seasons.

A new setting didn’t fix Brown in 2022 and 2023, but that wasn’t exactly a talent-drenched environment. He could take off in 2024 and beyond, and he’ll likely be paid according to that expectation, but it’s just as likely his career will continue to sputter.

Established offensive tackles aren’t easy to come by, so somebody will likely pay up for Tyron Smith. But whoever makes that investment will have to hope that the eight-time Pro Bowler truly did break his streak of injury concerns in 2023.

Smith made it out for 13 games for the 2023 Dallas Cowboys. Still not exactly an iron man, but it’s a huge improvement over a total of 17 in the previous three seasons combined. It was also enough for him to earn second-team All-Pro honors.

He’s 33 now, but a lot of tackles have excelled well into their late-30s. Smith could make that happen, but there’s also a chance 2023 was an anomaly and he’ll spend the rest of his career plagued by injuries.

Just like Barkley, Chase Young was once a Rookie of the Year; and just like Barkley, injuries have interfered with his ability to build on an awesome debut NFL campaign.

The good news is the 2020 second-round pick was actually healthy for the entirety of the 2023 season, and he was quite productive when receiving regular playing time during the first portion of that campaign with the Washington Commanders.

The bad news is the sample remains small, as he became a lot less of a factor during a run with the San Francisco 49ers to complete an unbalanced walk year.

Young is still just 24 years old, and his talent is undeniable at a premium position. As a result, he’s going to cash in. Where he goes from there remains a complete guessing game.

Jaylon Johnson is coming off a career year in which he intercepted four passes and surrendered an opposing passer rating of just 50.9. But prior to that campaign, the 2020 second-round pick had just one interception in three years as a starter for the Chicago Bears.

Johnson also missed six games due to injury in 2022 and gave up 10 passing touchdowns along with a triple-digit passer rating in his first two NFL seasons.

The 24-year-old will likely bring in big money, and the Bears seem determined to bring him back. But he still has a lot to prove when it comes to consistency, durability and even play-making ability if there’s a chance that rise in picks was an aberration in 2023.

It might not take long for Chicago—or a competitor—to find out if Johnson is worth the real-deal money he’ll almost certainly be paid this spring.