The Cowboys have been playing better football as of late, winning three of their last four games and looking genuinely elite on the defensive side of the ball. However, they haven’t exactly been facing the cream of the crop.
On Sunday night, they’ll be playing against the 8-6 Buccaneers, who are in the driver’s seat for the NFC South race but need to keep their foot on the gas. Unsurprisingly, the Cowboys are underdogs in this one, but our writers aren’t unanimous in their view of how things will go.
When Tampa Bay has the ball
Gap discipline
We all know about the Cowboys pass rush, and it is playing at a very high level right now, but that’s distracted everyone from the fact that this run defense is still not great. The Buccaneers aren’t the most run-heavy team out there, currently sitting 14th in total rushing attempts, but they are one of the most efficient.
The Buccaneers are eighth in EPA/rush, tied with the 49ers, and their 5.2 yards per carry is second only to the Ravens. The duo of Rachaad White and rookie Bucky Irving has been electric, as both are capable of running inside and outside the tackles in Liam Coen’s diverse run game. Dallas still struggles against the run – they’ve “improved” to 30th in EPA/rush over the last six weeks – and they’ll need a big showing in this one to limit the Buccaneers offense.
When Dallas has the ball
Avoid third down
Head coach and defensive play-caller Todd Bowles aims to get teams in third and long situations. He has a diverse set of blitz packages that he unleashes on quarterbacks in third and long. Tampa Bay leads the league in third down blitz rate and is only giving up 5.4 yards per pass attempt on third down.
Compare that to the Cowboys, who come into this game ranked 23rd in EPA/dropback on third down. Coincidentally, they’re also 23rd in third down conversion rate. If the Cowboys hope to have any success against this Buccaneers defense, they need to emphasize moving the chains on first and second down, thereby preventing Bowles from digging into his bag of tricks.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (9-5):
Well, I was certainly wrong last week. The Cowboys looked good. The question is just how much was the Panthers reverting to (bad) form, and how much was Dallas rallying to meet the seemingly endless injury challenges?
Now they face a Tampa Bay team that is trying to seal the deal on a playoff spot. It is a home game for the Cowboys, which is a real disadvantage this season. I think we will see more resilience and fight from Dallas, but against a team that is just a bit better.
The Bucs win 31-27.
Matt Holleran (9-5):
The Cowboys come into this matchup fresh of their most dominant win of the season over the Panthers. While as a team they have been playing better of late, this matchup against Tampa Bay will be a true test of how far the Cowboys have come.
This won’t be an easy game, and I see Baker Mayfield and the Bucs’ offense consistently moving the ball against Dallas’ defense being the difference. The Cowboys put up another good fight, but the Bucs offense is just too much.
Give me Tampa Bay, 26-20.
Jess Haynie (10-4):
Tampa Bay has real things to play for this Sunday. The Cowboys’ recent wins have only come against cupcakes. Both teams have shown enough good and bad that it could go either way, but the most likely outcome has Tampa’s extra motivation giving them the decisive edge.
Bucs 27, Cowboys 23.
Mike Poland (7-7):
This game simply comes down to two things. Can Tampa Bay’s offensive line hold back the wave of pressure this Cowboys defensive line has been delivering? And can Dallas slow down Bucky Irving rushing like a mad dog?
If the defensive line can get to Baker Mayfield and stop him having his way with his top-3 receivers, plus stop the best rookie running back in the league, then victory should fall to Dallas. The Bucs have allowed the most receptions on defense this year and have struggled to defend the pass, that’s not a good sign for them after what this Cowboys offense managed last week against Carolina.
Cowboys win- 24-20.
Dana Bartholomew (11-3):
I believe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are better than their record shows. Their schedule has been filled with tough opponents that are likely making the playoffs this year. And since Mike Evans has returned from injury, the team is 4-0.
While the Cowboys also improved over the past few weeks, I am not confident that it will be enough to tackle the current leader of the NFC South. The Buccaneers are in a tight race in their division and cannot afford to lose this one.
I’m picking the Bucs to win, 30-20.
Brian Martin (9-5):
The Dallas Cowboys looked pretty good both offensively and defensively last week against Carolina Panthers, who were arguably the worst team in the entire league. I have my doubts they can replicate that success this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Because of that, give me Tampa Bay 27-17.
RJ Ochoa (10-4):
The Dallas Cowboys won last week and predictably got very little credit for it due to the fact that they beat the Carolina Panthers. I understand that, but I do think that we are ignoring the quality of how the Cowboys themselves played.
Maybe the Christmas spirit is getting to me, but I am going to believe that it continues at least one more week. Give me the Cowboys at home and with someone finally offering us a celebration that involves the Salvation Army kettle.
I’ll take Dallas to win, 27-23.
David Howman (9-5):
I think this game comes down to Baker Mayfield more than anything. I’ll preface by saying I’m a huge believer in Mayfield, but he tends to play better when he has a chip on his shoulder. This past week, he eviscerated an elite Chargers defense that everyone expected him to struggle against. Now, his team is favored by 4.5 points on the road.
Combine that with a downright lethal Dallas defense and I think there’s a chance we see Mike Zimmer force some mistakes from Mayfield. I don’t love the matchup on the other side, as Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coach, but I think the Cowboys’ offensive tendencies the last month offer a path to success against this Buccaneers defense. It’ll take a nearly perfect game from Cooper Rush, which is asking a lot, but he’s delivered in prime time before.
Call me crazy, but Cowboys win 28-20.
