It’s not (quite) time to put the 2024 professional triathlon racing season into Christmas jumpers, and decorate the tree.
I am of course referring to this weekend’s IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship, which – four years later than planned thanks to the global pandemic – finally reaches Taupō, New Zealand. This coming weekend (Friday and Saturday evening if you are watching in Europe), it’s on.
For starters, there’s the little matter of significantly north of $2million on the line, if you consider the $500k prize purse alongside the allocation of a further $1.7 million as the final points standings will be confirmed in the inaugural IRONMAN Pro Series.
We’ve already got a host of content online – check out some of the links below – but after Jenny Lucas-Hill has cast her view on the women’s race (betting against Taylor Knibb!), I’ve been given the task to give my predictions on the Pro Men at the 2024 IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship.
- How to watch the Pro Women
- How to watch the Pro Men
- IRONMAN Pro Series Standings and Scenarios
- Start Lists and Bib numbers: Women | Men
- Who is NOT racing
- Podium predictions for the Pro Women
- The course in Taupō
Let’s get to it.
The Favourite
‘World Ranked #527 claims World Championship title’.
In most instances, this would require the addition of shocked / stunned or similar adjectives alongside it… but, from my perspective at least, that’s what is going to happen on Saturday in Taupō. I suspect if and when SkyBet price up the market over the next day or so, the bookmakers will have a similar take.
To save you the time of scrolling a long way down the PTO’s World Rankings if you don’t know who that is, I’m talking about home athlete, Hayden Wilde, who I see as the clear favourite in the men’s race. That ranking of course is effectively a red herring and bears no relation to his ability, as the short-course star simply has only done one event that even earns PTO points in the last 12 months. Which he won.
Wilde of course is without question one of the best triathletes in the world, with Olympic and World Triathlon Championship silver medals this year in draft-legal racing. He won the Championship Finals (Torremolinos) in incredibly dominant fashion, and was also the supertri series winner.
His 70.3 history may be limited, but this race in Taupō has been part of the Wilde plan for more than a year, qualification secured more than 12 months ago at IRONMAN 70.3 Melbourne, in gun-to-tape winning style. That meant qualification was in the bag, allowing full focus for the Olympic Games and WTS season.
Born in Taupō, this is very much a home event for the Kiwi, even though he spends much of his year based in Andorra. He will feel very much at home. Growing up in New Zealand, even seemingly small things such as the style of road surfaces on the bike will be totally familiar. For those only familiar with the smooth tarmac of Europe and North America, that can come as a shock.
I also think that the timing of the race will work to his benefit. From a young age, aspiring triathletes from New Zealand and Australia who want to make it on the global stage, typically have to get familiar with long haul travel and trying to ‘make it’ in Europe and/or North America. Chris McCormack has often referred to this process as toughening up those athletes, who in their early years at least, have to live race-to-race to pay the bills. They get more familiar with racing in both the northern and southern hemisphere summers. Combine that with familiar surrounds, and I’m sure that Wilde will be ready for one final big performance in 2024.
While his specific experience in this format is limited, I just don’t see him being beaten on Sunday.
Podium Contenders
Who else will be in the mix?
Having gone with an early spoiler of my top pick, here are the names that I think will certainly feature in podium contention.
Kyle Smith (NZL)
In the absence of Marten Van Riel and Magnus Ditlev, Kyle Smith (at #3) is the top-ranked men’s starter per the PTO’s World Rankings. That reflects an impressive rise, from an athlete who went from a T100 Wildcard in Singapore to the silver medal overall in the final T100 World Championship standings, as well as taking the top step of the podium at The Championship in Samorin.
He will feel very much at home, another athlete who will benefit greatly from extremely familiar surroundings. He’s also a winner of the ‘regular’ IRONMAN 70.3 Taupō in both 2019 and 2024, and his motivation will be through the roof. A long season is the last thing that will be on his mind – this will be an A++ race for him in terms of focus.
Rico Bogen (GER)
Who won last year? is always a worthwhile check, even though we are not even on the same continent! Young Rico Bogen was perhaps a surprise champion in Lahti, but even without those points which have since rolled off of his PTO Rankings, he’s the World #6. The T100 has been his primary focus, finishing just behind Smith in third place in the season long T100 standings, but just ahead when finishing second recently in Dubai.
Smith and Bogen finished very close together earlier this season as part of that epic sprint finish in San Francisco, with the podium that day proving to be a precursor to the final 2024 standings. Will the German be able to match that sort of performance on ‘away’ soil?
Very well matched across the disciplines, it would be a surprise if Smith and Bogen are not in close proximity for much of the race.
Leo Bergere (FRA)
Adding to the short-course quality outlined above for Hayden Wilde, is Frenchman Leo Bergere. Olympic and World Triathlon Championship bronze medals have been the highlight of the remarkably consistent Bergere, who was also second overall in the supertri series.
The PTO’s World #495 (!), Bergere has won an IRONMAN 70.3 event in each of the last three years (Lanzarote 2022, Oceanside 2023 and Valencia 2024). It will be his first start at the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championships, and he arrives both motivated and prepared.
“This is a race where I will not have the pressure that I usually have – but I want to succeed.”
Jelle Geens (BEL)
Belgium’s Jelle Geens was a T100 winner this year in Las Vegas – but due to the qualification rules, didn’t get to even start at the final in Dubai. That made him the first, and so far only, athlete to have beaten Marten Van Riel in middle-distance racing. While perhaps frustrating at the time, could missing that race in the Middle East work to his favour in New Zealand?
With all roads leading to Taupō, Geens has had full focus on the IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship, which has included four weeks training on the Gold Coast in Australia. With a new coach too following his move to middle distance racing, motivation will be high, and most of the travel already long done.
Geens has improved in all four of his middle distance races this year, from 4th (Oceanside), 3rd (Tallinn), 2nd (Zell am See) and that T100 triumph in Las Vegas. Really nailing the bike leg in TT format was a key to his success in Las Vegas, and he will absolutely need to repeat something similar this weekend, given the names I’ve mentioned above.
If he can get that right though, he has the sort of run speed to rival anyone.
Ones to watch
In truth, I think that the podium will come from the names I’ve already mentioned, but I would certainly refrain from calling anyone else an ‘outsider’. If I had to pick a couple of names to potentially challenge, then I think the bike power of Mathis Margirier (FRA) or the consistency of Justus Nieschlag (GER) would be my picks.
The podium?
With some great swimmers, some great swim-bikers and the likely objective of at least trying to get away from Hayden Wilde a key hope for many, the pace will be full gas from the gun. It really should be great viewing.
And with that, here are my personal podium picks:
- 1st – Hayden Wilde (NZL)
- 2nd – Leo Bergere (FRA)
- 3rd – Kyle Smith (NZL)
