IRONMAN Kona 2024: Chris McCormack World Championship predictions and podium picks

Chris McCormack reigned twice as IRONMAN World Champion, so few people are better qualified to talk about the challenges Kona poses for elite triathletes.

The Australian great, now a key man behind the supertri revolution, is looking ahead to the 2024 edition of Kona, which will capture the world’s attention this coming Saturday (October 26).

A stellar field will line up early on Saturday – including defending champion Sam Laidlow, Norwegian greats Kristian Blummenfelt and Gustav Iden, giant Dane Magnus Ditlev and Germany’s two-time champion Patrick Lange.

Two years ago Iden blitzed his rivals and the Kona course record with a stunning time of 7:40:24, and McCormack assessed the way the sport itself is evolving.

McCormack on records, and equipment

He told TRI247: “I think the sport’s getting faster and faster. I know for sure the equipment is getting faster. You just need to see that in cycling. The equipment today compared to years ago is night and day. The running shoes nowadays, we’re seeing what they’re doing in the marathons.

“But I think in Ironman, these bouncy running shoes support the athletes even more than they do in marathons. Because of the heavier running we do and the slappier running we do at the back end of an Ironman, it keeps people in the sport. And I’ll go out on a limb and say had these shoes existed back when I was racing, then Chris Lieto would be a name that everyone would know about a lot more than they do right now.

“He would have a few titles because we wouldn’t have caught him, and I think a lot of these big swim-bikers right now benefit from those shoes.”

Betting against Lionel?

Three years ago McCormack hit the headlines when he said he would match Lionel Sanders’ prize money were the Canadian to prevail in Kona. That was at a time when ‘No Limits’ was engaging in a gruelling programme of Ironman after Ironman en route to the Big Island.

Lionel has flown much more under the radar so far in 2024, partly due to a rib injury which forced him onto the sidelines for a spell. So will Macca be betting against him again?

“Look, I’m a massive fan of Lionel, and that was at a time when he was chopping and changing between coaches. I think Lionel’s found his balance and his place in the sport. Now he seems to be racing well. He seems to be sticking to things. I’m not prepared to match his prize money because Lionel’s capable of doing anything. And they always say, don’t bet against an old lion. And betting against an old Lionel would be even tougher. But I think Lionel can be very, very strong in Kona. We still all go back to that brilliant day [in 2017] when he nearly got away with it when he finished second, only caught at the end by Patrick Lange.

“But I do believe that Lionel can definitely shape this race. And if he puts himself in the game and puts his head right, he’s got the mongrel and the will to do it. So I’m not going to bet against him, but I would love to see him do well just for himself. And I just know that maybe it’s the old mentality that you have to perform in Kona. He’s done that, and winning Kona is everything. You win Ironman World titles all around the world. You have to win one in Kona.”

Who wins IRONMAN Kona 2024?

While Macca has great respect for Sanders, he is not predicting a podium finish for the 36-year-old Canadian star this Saturday. Instead he believes that the title will be heading for Scandinavia, just as it did in 2021 and 2022.

“I’m going to go out on a limb and say Kristian Blummenfelt is going to get this done. I think he was disappointed with the Olympics [12th behind Alex Yee]. I think with Gustav [Iden] in the race and a lot of the power coming from the back especially with Magnus Ditlev in the event, Kristian will get across to Sam Laidlow. 

“He’s going to win Kona. It’s going to be ugly. I think Patrick Lange is going to get second and benefit from the whole group, and I’m going to give Magnus Ditlev or Sam Laidlow for third and fourth. It’s a tough pick. There’s so many people in the middle there that are good.”

Chris McCormack Kona podium picks

“So first: Kristian Blummenfelt to finally win in Kona and get that monkey off his back. Second: Patrick Lange, who’s going to build with a massive run – he could dangerously get away with the win if he’s able to stay close on the bike. And third: Sam Laidlow. Fourth: Magnus Ditlev.

1. Kristian Blummenfelt
2. Patrick Lange
3. Sam Laidlow
4. Magnus Ditlev