Men’s tournament 9 vs. 8 upset rankings: Would any outcome qualify as a shocker?
A No. 9 seed beating a No. 8 seed is technically an upset, although most of the time the two teams are evenly matched as the seeding suggests.
As you might expect, a No. 9 seed winning a game in the NCAA Tournament is the most common of the lower seed vs. higher seed matchups. Since the tournament expanded in 1985, No. 9 seeds actually hold a slight head-to-head edge with a record of 81-75.
Last season, No. 9 seeds went 3-1 in the first round of the bracket. If it happens again this year, they would also be considered small upsets in the betting market, seeing as all No. 8 seeds are favored to win their games
We break down the matchups to determine which No. 9 seeds have the best chance to pull an upset and which No. 8 seeds you should pencil into the second round of your brackets.
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9 vs. 8 upset rankings
These are ordered from least likely to most likely.
4. Creighton over Louisville
I really like this matchup for Louisville. The Cardinals were the first tournament bet I gave out on SportsLine and I believe they are undervalued as an eight seed.
Louisville has lost just twice since Dec. 14 and one of those came last week in the ACC tournament championship to No. 1 Duke. I thought Creighton was a little overrated all year playing in a down Big East conference and I expect the Bluejays to struggle mightily with Louisville’s athleticism and ball-pressure defense.
It’s an 8-9 game, so anything can happen, although I give Creighton the longest odds of pulling an upset.
3. Oklahoma over Connecticut
Almost everyone will be on the two-time defending champions and I get it. However, I just don’t think the Huskies are very good.
Both of these teams have some big edges on paper. Oklahoma should get to the foul line a ton, and the Sooners’ 3-point shooters will get a lot of open looks against UConn’s poor perimeter defense.
On the other hand, the Huskies will dominate the offensive boards and should get plenty of easy buckets in the paint. If UConn’s guards can protect the basketball, the Huskies will have a lot of success offensively against an Oklahoma defense that got lit up in the SEC.
I played a little strategy here with my brackets. I view this as an even matchup, but I know UConn will be a popular pick in bracket pools. I went the contrarian route and took Oklahoma to pull the slight upset.
2. Georgia over Gonzaga
Gonzaga is another team that will be a popular pick. This isn’t an easy matchup for the Bulldogs though. I had them pegged as a potential sleeper for the second weekend iif they had gotten a better draw.
The reason I made this game No. 2 is because Gonzaga has been overvalued all season. The Bulldogs’ best wins are over Baylor, San Diego State, Indiana and St. Mary’s, with three of those coming in November.
Georgia proved it can hang with the best teams in the country by beating Florida and Kentucky. The Bulldogs also lost by just two points at home to Auburn. I lean Gonzaga in this matchup but it won’t be easy. Georgia can slow the pace down and sneak out with an ugly win.
1. Baylor over Mississippi State
I made this matchup No. 1 because it might be the most even game in in the first round. Both Baylor and Mississippi State can score and both teams can give up a lot of points.
This game will likely come down to rebounding and 3-point shooting. Mississippi State has a big edge on the offensive boards, while Baylor’s perimeter shooters will light up one of the worst 3-point defenses in the country.
I liked Baylor coming into the season but the Bears just never put it together, starting with a blowout loss to Gonzaga in the opener. Maybe they get a second life in the bracket.
In an even game, I give the No. 9 seed Bears the slightest edge to advance.
