NBA Predictions 2024-25: Who wins MVP? Rookie of the Year? Our experts make their picks
With the 2024-25 NBA season about to tip off, it’s time to make predictions! Who will win individual awards this year? Our writers weigh in.
Check out our championship predictions here.
Dan Devine: Reed Sheppard. As tempting as it was to pick Zach Edey as the Day 1 starting center on a team with title aspirations, I’m banking on Sheppard’s combination of knockdown shooting, pick-and-roll playmaking and turnover-generating on-ball defense to break through the roster logjam in Houston, earning him big minutes to rack up big production and help propel the Rockets back into the postseason.
Kevin O’Connor: Zach Edey. Edey will play a pivotal role for the Grizzlies as a post presence, a lob threat for Ja Morant and even as a floor spacer from the corners. On defense, Edey will be an imposing presence around the rim who inhales rebounds.
Vincent Goodwill: Reed Sheppard. This isn’t about best player or best potential, because this wasn’t that kind of draft. But what this is about is who’s in the best possible position to have the ball in his hands immediately and produce. Sheppard is a really good shooter and sound decision-maker. Houston should contend for at least the play-in, and in lieu of a Day 1 superstar, Sheppard can snatch the ROY.
Tom Haberstroh: Zach Edey. I strongly believe Reed Sheppard will be better this year, but Edey has a clearer path to big-time minutes. The Grizzlies need Edey to fill in 30 minutes at the center position whereas Sheppard has Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green ahead of him on the depth chart. Stephen Curry lost to Tyreke Evans for Rookie of the Year in similar fashion.
Dan Titus: Zach Edey. Edey is the only one who projects to earn starters’ minutes from Day 1. That’s a significant advantage compared to the field because winning Rookie of the Year is about productivity. He’ll play 20-plus minutes per night and should average a low-end double-double while being an impactful rim protector defensively. With a draft class that lacks immediate star power, it could only take averaging 10-11 points per game to take home the award like Malcolm Brogdon in 2016-17.
Ben Rohrbach: Reed Sheppard. The kid is an electric shooter, making better than 50% of his 3-pointers as a Kentucky freshman. He will have plenty of opportunities to perform in Houston, where a collection of prospects should propel the Rockets to the play-in tournament. Not often do Rookies of the Year blend individual and team success; he has a shot.
Who will be the Defensive Player of the Year?
Rohrbach: Victor Wembanyama. Let his reign begin. There is a chance nobody else will win this award for at least another decade. Wembanyama is that impactful. He was the league’s best defensive player last season, when his team’s lack of success prevented him from garnering enough votes. This season will be different. This season will be undeniable.
Titus: Victor Wembanyama. Over the past 20 years, players who average at least three blocks and one steal per game in a season typically win DPOY. Jaren Jackson Jr. (2022-23), Marcus Camby (2006-07) and Ben Wallace (2004-06) were the last to do it and all took home the award. Wembanyama hit those marks as a rookie. Voters won’t be able to use the Spurs’ record as an excuse this year — this award is going to Wemby.
Devine: Victor Wembanyama. Twenty games into last season, Gregg Popovich moved Zach Collins from the starting lineup to the bench, allowing the No. 1 overall pick to slide from power forward to center. From that point on, Big Vic averaged 3.9 blocks, 1.2 steals and 2.9 deflections in 29.5 minutes per game, holding opponents to 53% shooting at the rim. He turned a Spurs defense that was ranked 27th before the lineup shift into a league-average unit afterward — and one that clamped down at a top-two level when he was on the floor. I think he’s going to be even better than that this season; that is absolutely horrifying.
Goodwill: Victor Wembanyama. Is he Jason Vorhees or Freddy Krueger? Is he omnipresent or frightening in your dreams? Wembanyama will be the league’s nightmare this year, continuing on his nearly five-blocks-a-night showing after the All-Star break. He’s stronger this season and equipped to handle responsibilities at all three levels. Might as well name this award after him; it’ll be etched there for the next decade.
Haberstroh: Victor Wembanyama. Once Gregg Popovich came to his senses and put the 7-foot-4 guy at the center slot last season, it was over. He averaged six stocks (steals plus blocks) per game after the All-Star break, and the Spurs posted a top-12 defensive rating during that time with a ragtag group of contributors. He’s only getting started.
O’Connor: Victor Wembanyama. This will be Victor Wembanyama’s award to lose for the next decade. There has not been a more transformative defender this century.
Who will be the Coach of the Year?
Titus: Taylor Jenkins, Grizzlies. The Grizzlies were one of the most injury-riddled teams last season, winning just 27 games. Memphis was a 50-plus win team in 2021-22 and 2022-23, and with all of their foundational pieces still intact and mostly healthy, Jenkins will get plenty of credit for rehabbing a bottom-five team into a high-seeded playoff contender. A 20-to-25-game improvement will be an easy sell.
Goodwill: Mike Budenholzer, Suns. Who knows if Bud is truly a better coach than one-and-done Frank Vogel, but there’s no doubt he’s a better fit for this roster construction. The Suns got 49 wins last year and seemed to leave more on the table, as a top-five 3-point shooting team but bottom five in attempts. The “let it fly” mentality will have the Suns as a surprise team and more cohesive unit on offense, and Bud will get the lion’s share of the credit.
Rohrbach: Joe Mazzulla, Celtics. I’m not sure there are going to be many surprises record-wise across the NBA. The teams we think are going to be great are going to be great. The teams we think are going to be terrible are going to be terrible. And everyone in between will duke it out for playoff positioning. Which gives us a chance to appreciate the mad genius of Mazzulla, who currently owns the best win-loss percentage (.738) in NBA history — by a lot.
Haberstroh: Erik Spoelstra, Heat. He’s gotta win it at some point, right? He’s never been named the season’s top coach even though inside the league he’s overwhelmingly considered the best coach in the NBA (GMs have picked him five years in a row now). There’s going to be an East team that surprises this season, and the Miami Heat have the right elixir of star power and unproven talent to pull the rabbit out of the hat.
O’Connor: Ime Udoka, Rockets. The Rockets will take big steps forward this season and make the playoffs. With a blend of young guys flanked by a few veterans, Udoka will be credited for the team’s overall progress and cohesiveness on the court.
Devine: Mark Daigneault, Thunder. In the history of the Coach of the Year Award, nobody’s ever gone back-to-back. But if Oklahoma City runs away with the West — blowing past 60 wins, vying for the top spot in both offensive and defensive efficiency, improving in every capacity and doing it all with what is again the youngest roster in the NBA — then someone’s going to get the credit. Why not the coach?
Who will be the Sixth Man of the Year?
O’Connor: Donte DiVincenzo. DDV will receive an expanded role with the Timberwolves, giving him more reps as a point guard than he had received on the Knicks. Expect him to play heavy minutes and finish a lot of games. The only thing stopping him from winning this award is a move to the starting lineup over the aging Mike Conley.
Titus: Donte DiVincenzo. DiVincenzo is playing with a big chip on his shoulder after getting dealt to Minnesota. He’s seamlessly integrated into the Wolves’ system as a hybrid facilitator and scorer off the bench, and based on his 20% preseason usage, his offensive output can match that of Malik Monk and reigning Sixth Man of the Year Naz Reid.
Devine: Malik Monk, Kings. Monk has turned into a perfect offensive reserve option for Mike Brown in Sacramento — fluid in the dribble-handoff game, adept at hunting for his own shot in the pick-and-roll, more seasoned in mapping the floor as he comes off the screen and more willing to get teammates involved. He probably would’ve won last season had he not gotten hurt at the end of March, opening the door for Naz Reid to swoop in; this time, he finishes the job.
Rohrbach: Donte DiVincenzo. A second straight Sixth Man award for the Wolves. And Naz Reid will be a candidate again. But DiVincenzo is acting as if he is out for blood following his trade from the New York Knicks, and he has the talent to extract a lot of it.
Goodwill: Naz Reid. Over the last decade, it’s been a small man’s award, a scorer who can do it in bunches. Reid broke the streak last year and he’ll do it one more time. The Wolves will need him to score more without Karl-Anthony Towns, and he’s versatile enough for three positions. He’ll get the looks, the opportunities and the Wolves will win at an even higher clip. Thus, the reward.
Haberstroh: Donte DiVincenzo. Joining his fifth team in four seasons, DiVincenzo has found a home in Minnesota where he can flourish in the second unit. He was a starter on a 50-win team last year, providing elite 3-point shooting, transition spark and feisty defense for the New York Knicks. The Timberwolves need his scoring punch behind Anthony Edwards, and the 27-year-old is overqualified for the job.
Who will be the Most Improved Player of the Year?
Goodwill: Evan Mobley. You get the feeling he’s more Slim Duncan than Tim Duncan, but it also feels he’s prime for a breakout under Kenny Atkinson. They’re intent on running more offense through him, which lessens the ask for him to be a shooter. He’s already an elite defender and shot-blocker, and his offense will take a large leap from that 15-16 PPG to 20-21, forming a true 1-2 punch with Donovan Mitchell.
Devine: Jalen Williams. I think Williams is a bona fide star in the making, one who has continually made significant strides at every juncture in his journey: from his sophomore to junior years at Santa Clara, from the start of his career to the end of his rookie season, and from his first year to his second, when he was arguably the second-best player on the No. 1 seed in the West. I think he’s going to take a Year 3 leap, maybe earn an All-Star spot and cement himself as the second star on a championship contender; that, typically, is a recipe for heavy MIP consideration.
Haberstroh: Victor Wembanyama. As I wrote last season, Wembanyama is our first artificial intelligence hooper — a guy who absorbs information and leverages it at impossible speed. If the award was about in-season improvement, he would have won the award easily. At this rate, he can end the 2024-25 season as the game’s best player, which would make him the MIP in my book.
O’Connor: Jalen Johnson. Johnson could’ve been a Most Improved candidate last season, but his leap could be even bigger now. Johnson has improved annually across the board, and during the preseason he looked like a versatile beast who can handle the ball, shoot, finish loudly at the rim, playmake and defend across positions.
Rohrbach: Jalen Williams. Williams is bordering on the precipice of stardom and this year takes the plunge. The Thunder are going to be awesome, and he will be the second-most important reason for that — an All-Star in his third season. For as much as his diverse skill set amplifies everyone around him, the talent in OKC cannot help but amplify him.
Titus: Jalen Johnson. Johnson improved in nearly every statistical area in his third NBA season. With Dejounte Murray gone, he’ll step into a significant role as a secondary scorer and, potentially, playmaker. He’s a two-way versatile wing who will push for 20 points per game 10 boards and four assists. That’s an MIP all day.
Who will be the Clutch Player of the Year?
Haberstroh: Jalen Brunson. This is a volume award and you know Brunson can handle it. He led all players in clutch scoring in the postseason, and I see no reason why he won’t continue performing at a high level in crunchtime. Karl-Anthony Towns may steal some touches, but I suspect he’ll be running on empty with his full-time defensive duties under Tom Thibodeau’s scheme.
O’Connor: Steph Curry. Following his epic clutch moments for Team USA, the Warriors will get back to their winning ways this season, and Curry will naturally be a central part of that. Expect many “BANGS” in Steph’s future.
Devine: Luka Dončić. This is partly a bet on DeMar DeRozan and De’Aaron Fox cannibalizing one another’s candidacies now that they play together in Sacramento. It’s partly a bet on some other candidates (reigning winner Stephen Curry, Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) and their teams playing fewer “clutch” games than last season, and on Dončić (just 96 “clutch” minutes in 28 contests last season) and Dallas playing more. Mostly, though, it’s me continuing to have that 3 he hit over Rudy Gobert rolling through my head. If you’re going to be a prisoner of the moment, at least have it be a very friggin’ cool moment.
Goodwill: Damian Lillard. He’s in shape, his head is in a better spot after the jarring trade that sent him to Milwaukee on the eve of training camp last year. Assuming health, recapturing that old magic shouldn’t be impossible over 82 games. The trust level between himself and Giannis Antetokounmpo should have some staying power, and if Dame is still the player close to his prime, a revenge tour could be forthcoming.
Rohrbach: Stephen Curry. When in doubt, pick Steph. Did you see him at the Olympics? He is as thrilling a player as we have ever seen, complete with a flare for the moment. He can lift an entire arena if it is rooting for him or deflate one if it is not. Do not overthink it. It can be difficult to predict “clutch,” unless you’re the greatest shooter alive.
Titus: Jalen Brunson. The first two award winners were guards (De’Aaron Fox and Stephen Curry), so Brunson checks the first box. The 28-year-old All-NBA player is firmly in his prime and will have ample opportunities to prove he’s one of the best closers in the league. Brunson had a top-five usage rate in the clutch last year, and his performance in the closing minutes of the 2023-24 postseason shows why he’s a worthy candidate to win it.
Who will be the Most Valuable Player?
Goodwill: Anthony Edwards, Timberwolves. It feels like it’s Luka Dončić’s time, or even SGA’s. It feels like heresy to have anyone but Nikola Jokić in this spot, but if the Nuggets aren’t a top-three team in the West (no guarantee), it’s hard to see voters awarding him a fourth MVP in five years, knowing the historical territory it puts him in. Edwards, though, is coming off an Olympic experience and run to the West finals. The work ethic from Paris and the sting of losing should combine for a Barkley-’93 run or a Wade-in-’09 season, both putting up their best individual numbers following a summer with their peers. He’s closer to the top than you think.
O’Connor: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. SGA will put up monster numbers once again, and he could be even better after smoothing out his 3-point shooting release. If SGA goes from a subpar 3-point shooter to a knockdown one, he really might average close to 35 points per game. The Thunder will win over 60 games too, making him a perfect candidate to win the award.
Rohrbach: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Celtics might be so good again that they cannot claim a single MVP vote, but it will be obvious who is spearheading Oklahoma City’s surge up the standings: Gilgeous-Alexander. For years the MVP voting panel has selected centers from higher-seeded teams, and the point guard from a juggernaut is a welcome change.
Devine: Nikola Jokić. I get the case for Luka, who’ll continue to put up insane numbers and will merit year-after recognition for getting Dallas to the Finals. I get the case for SGA, last year’s runner-up and arguably this year’s strongest “best player on the best team” candidate. But I still think Jokić is the best player in the world, and I expect him to effectively carry a slightly downtrodden Nuggets team back to 50-plus wins and a top-four seed in the West, and to have the best statistical argument across the board after having done so. Chalk is boring, I know; I’m just going to need to see someone else forcibly erase Jokić from the proceedings before I do so voluntarily.
Titus: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder were the best team in the West last year, and with a more robust team, led by perennial MVP candidate Gilgeous-Alexander, this is the year he’ll win it. He’ll average over 30 points per game for a 55-plus win team, while also being one of the top defenders at his position.
Haberstroh: Victor Wembanyama. I know, the Spurs may not win enough. But that overlooks the macro ballot trend that shows that voters aren’t blinded by win-loss record in recent years (see Russell Westbrook in 2017 and Nikola Jokić in 2022). The dude’s going to average 25-plus with otherworldly defense. When has that not screamed MVP?
