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Potential Paths for D’Angelo Russell and L.A. Lakers

Potential Paths for D’Angelo Russell and the Los Angeles Lakers

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    NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - APRIL 16: D'Angelo Russell #1 of the Los Angeles Lakers reacts against the New Orleans Pelicans during a play-in tournament game at the Smoothie King Center on April 16, 2024 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)

    Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

    The Los Angeles Lakers and D’Angelo Russell may be inextricably linked this offseason. Even if both sides are ready to part ways, they may still need each other to reach their next destination.

    Russell has an $18.7 million player option for the 2024-25 season, which early intel suggests he’ll decline to seek a more significant, multi-year deal. The Lakers could try to retain Russell or let him walk outright, but will he find a sufficient suitor when very few teams project to have sizable cap room this summer?

    Can L.A. find a viable (and legal) sign-and-trade partner for Russell? Will he opt into his final year, perhaps in conjunction with a trade to a team more willing to pay him long-term?

    Could a coaching change lead to a better result if the Lakers functionally return the same roster as this season’s 47-win team that fell in the first round to the Denver Nuggets?

    The actual answer may not be apparent until closer to the NBA draft (June 26 and 27), but the following is a list of possible pathways for Russell and the Lakers.

Russell Leaves Outright

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    CLEVELAND, OHIO - MAY 05: Paolo Banchero #5 of the Orlando Magic and teammates walk to the bench during the third quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game Seven of the Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse on May 05, 2024 in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)

    Jason Miller/Getty Images

    Over 93 regular-season games with the Lakers (dating back to last year’s trade deadline), Russell shot almost 41.5 percent from three-point range. He shifted naturally from an on-ball shot-creator to an off-ball shooter. He’s not a great defender, but some teams can regularly generate stops but are desperate for shooting.

    Not many have real spending power this offseason, but the Orlando Magic stand out as the most obvious destination for Russell should he opt out and leave the Lakers outright. The Magic matched the Lakers at 47 wins but fell in the first round in a hard-fought series against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

    Shooting is their most significant need, and Orlando projects to have in the ballpark of $52 million in space. Russell could slot in a backcourt with Jalen Suggs, providing an immediate shooting and playmaking boost.

    But do the Magic agree, or do they look at Russell’s postseason three-point shooting numbers (under 32 percent with the Lakers) and instead chase players such as Malik Monk, Klay Thompson or even Paul George?

    The most recent intel suggests the San Antonio Spurs aren’t interested. If Russell can’t get a viable offer from the Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors or Utah Jazz, he’s wholly reliant on the Lakers for his payday. It just takes one, but multiple NBA sources question who would be willing to pay Russell if the Magic aren’t.

    As for L.A., assuming LeBron James returns on a deal in the $50 million range, Russell leaving could help the Lakers bring back players like Taurean Prince, Max Christie, Spencer Dinwiddie and/or spend the $5.3 million taxpayer mid-level exception. The latter would trigger a hard cap at the $189.5 million second apron. Still, given the excessive penalties and limitations, Los Angeles is unlikely to exceed that line in almost any situation.

    Or the Lakers could let all their free agents depart to use the $12.9 million non-taxpayer mid-level exception, though the team would be very close to and hard-capped by the $178.7 million first apron.

Sign-and-Trade

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    BROOKLYN, NY - APRIL 6: Mikal Bridges #1 of the Brooklyn Nets smiles during the game against the Detroit Pistons on April 6, 2024 at Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by David L. Nemec/NBAE via Getty Images)

    David L. Nemec/NBAE via Getty Images

    Russell could opt out to join a team without the necessary cap room, but that would require negotiating a sign-and-trade with the Lakers.

    Multiple sources say that before trading for Dennis Schröder, the Brooklyn Nets were in talks with the Lakers for Russell (with L.A. getting Dejounte Murray from the Atlanta Hawks). That negotiation died between the Lakers and Hawks, but the Nets still need a starting-caliber guard.

    Russell could be traded to Brooklyn for a starting salary of up to $20.6 million (roughly $65-$89 million over three or four years) via the Nets’ Dinwiddie trade exception, with perhaps the Lakers getting young center Day’Ron Sharpe and a $16.6 million trade exception.

    That’s just one of many possibilities with the Nets, but that all hinges on Brooklyn chasing Russell, both sides agreeing to salary terms and the Lakers and Nets (or even a third team) finding a viable trade. The Lakers would be hard-capped at the second apron by sending out via sign-and-trade, and the Nets at the first.

    Los Angeles would be in the same financial position financially had Russell opted out, though it would need to account for any players joining via trade (like Sharpe).

    The Nets may not be the only sign-and-trade possibility, but several NBA sources struggled to find additional suggestions.

Opting in for a Trade

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    CLEVELAND, OH - MAY 11: Darius Garland #10 high five during the game Donovan Mitchell #45 of the Cleveland Cavaliers during the game against the Boston Celtics during Round 2 Game 3 of the 2024 NBA Playoffs on May 11, 2024 at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland, Ohio. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images)

    David Liam Kyle/NBAE via Getty Images

    If the Lakers don’t want Russell long term, arguably the best path for the team is if he opts in for a trade. That can be negotiated around the draft, and Russell would be best served landing with a team willing to reinvest in him in long-term (he’s not extension-eligible on his current contract).

    For instance, if the Cleveland Cavaliers decided to trade one of Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland, the Lakers could build a trade around multiple players like (some but not all) Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jalen Hood-Schifino, Gabe Vincent and/or Russell. L.A. has multiple first-round picks it can offer, including No. 17 in the draft (after it’s selected) and its 2029 and 2031 selections.

    The Lakers intend to keep Reaves, but Russell’s $18.7 million makes a big deal easier to accomplish as the team’s third-highest salary behind Anthony Davis and James.

    Note that the Lakers cannot take back more salary than they send out without triggering a first-apron hard cap. Any aggregation, like Russell and Hachimura, triggers a second-apron hard cap.

    The Lakers have previously kicked the tires on both Atlanta points guards (Trae Young and Murray) and may look to find a third star. Russell opting in could make that easier to accomplish.

Opting in to Stay

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    NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 31: D'Angelo Russell #1 and Austin Reaves #15 of the Los Angeles Lakers celebrate during the game against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center on March 31, 2024 in New York City. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

    Mike Stobe/Getty Images

    Some of the blame for the season’s quick end fell on former head coach Darvin Ham. The Lakers front office could decide the roster that got to the Western Conference Finals in 2023 may be good enough for 2024-25 with the right head coach and some minor tweaks.

    If so, the team would have a full year with Russell to test that theory—or it could pivot and deal him closer to the trade deadline. Russell and Reaves provide shooting and playmaking that complements James and Davis well offensively but not as well on the defensive side.

    Perhaps a little more size to battle Nikola Jokić and the Denver Nuggets would be enough with a new coach (maybe JJ Redick). If Russell leaves outright, the free-agent market has little to offer at guard. The Lakers could be looking at retaining Dinwiddie and possibly adding Chris Paul, should the Golden State Warriors cut his non-guaranteed salary for tax purposes.

    It’s not a perfect marriage, but it may be one of convenience.

Opting Out to Re-sign

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    LOS ANGELES, CA - APRIL 27: LeBron James #23 and D'Angelo Russell #1 of the Los Angeles Lakers look on during the game against the Denver Nuggets during Round 1 Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Playoffs on April 27, 2024 at Crypto.Com Arena in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2024 NBAE (Photo by Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images)

    Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images

    Last year, Russell couldn’t secure a long-term deal as a free agent elsewhere, so he re-signed with the Lakers to a smaller two-year contract with the player option. L.A. wasn’t ready to commit to a big deal, which may not change this summer.

    Russell could opt out and find no viable destination above the almost $13 million non-taxpayer mid-level. If so, the Lakers would have all the leverage, and while he might get more to stay, it may be for even less than his declined option.

    Since Los Angeles is unlikely to offer a long-term deal, Russell should avoid this path. It’s not ideal for the Lakers, though they can look to trade him after December 15.

    It’s certainly possible that all of this is moot, and Russell leaves for Orlando or another suitor. Alternatively, the Lakers may find a sign-and-trade partner or a deal with Russell opting in to facilitate a trade.

    But if the market for the 28-year-old guard is soft, he will need the Lakers to pay him or send him to a willing team. They will almost certainly need to work together to find a result that favors both parties (and a third team), and that may not be an easy journey to navigate.

    Many in the industry believe the Lakers would like to upgrade around James, Davis and Reaves. That probably means Russell ends up elsewhere. The Magic may pay him outright, the Nets could go for a via sign-and-trade, or even the Cavaliers do something big with L.A. after Russell opts in—but a month shy of the draft, it’s too early to predict the answer.

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