UConn vs. Purdue 2024: Odds Advice and Key Player Predictions for Championship
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Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
The matchup most people wanted in the NCAA men’s basketball tournament national championship takes place on Monday.
The Connecticut Huskies will try to become the first repeat champion since the 2006 and 2007 Florida Gators.
The Purdue Boilermakers are after their first-ever NCAA tournament title, an achievement that would serve as a terrific ending to the Zach Edey era.
UConn and Purdue have been the two best teams throughout the NCAA tournament, but the Huskies are a sizable favorite due to their level of dominance.
Edey and UConn big man Donovan Clingan will receive plenty of attention in the conversation about individual battles, but guard play could be the deciding factor inside State Farm Stadium.
National Championship Odds Advice
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Tyler Schank/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
Spread: UConn (-6)
Over/Under: 146
Money Line: UConn (-278; bet $278 to win $100); Purdue (+225; bet $100 to win $225)
UConn has been the favorite in all but one of its games this season.
The Huskies have been a six-point favorite or better in 30 of their 39 previous games, so it’s no surprise to see them attached to a decent-sized number for the national championship.
UConn covered the spread in all five of its NCAA tournament games and it is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games.
Purdue was listed as an underdog twice this season. It won both of those games outright against Illinois and Arizona. The spread closed at two and 2.5 in those contests.
The Boilermakers are also 5-0 ATS in the NCAA tournament. They went 1-5 ATS in the six games prior to the Big Dance.
The under hit in four of Purdue’s five March Madness games, while UConn is 5-0 to the under during its NCAA tournament run.
The last two national championship games went under Monday’s projected total of 146 points, as did the previous final inside State Farm Stadium in 2017.
Purdue Player Predictions
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Zach Edey is a walking double-double in college basketball.
The Purdue big man is averaging 28 points and 15.4 rebounds per game in the NCAA tournament.
Edey posted 20 points, 12 rebounds, four assists and two blocks in Saturday’s win over NC State.
Edey’s stat line may not be as expected on Monday because of his unique matchup against Donovan Clingan.
He has not faced a center with the size and athleticism that Clingan possesses this season. That will serve as a good test for Edey’s rising NBA credentials.
Of course, Edey will see a lot of the ball, but his supporting cast must thrive so that the Boilermakers can pull off the upset.
Braden Smith, who averages 12 points per game, finished with a single-digit point total in three of Purdue’s NCAA tournament games. He needs to have one of his best games of the season for the Boilermakers to win.
Predictions:
Zach Edey: 18 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks
Braden Smith: 20 points, 4 rebounds, 8 assists
UConn Player Predictions
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Jamie Schwaberow/NCAA Photos via Getty Images
Clingan has been as dominant as Edey in the post throughout the NCAA tournament.
The 7’2″ sophomore produced 40 points in the last two rounds and is averaging 16.2 points, nine rebounds and 3.6 blocks per game in the Big Dance.
As with Edey, Clingan has a unique matchup in front of him on Monday. That could mean Clingan takes a few possessions to figure out how to approach his center counterpart.
All five UConn starters scored in double figures in Saturday’s win over Alabama. The scoring depth around Clingan could be the Huskies’ X-factor.
Tristen Newton produced a 19-point, 10-rebound double-double in last season’s national championship win over San Diego State.
Newton scored in double figures in four of UConn’s five NCAA tournament games. The Huskies will turn to him to provide veteran experience, and that could lead to him taking a bunch of the early shots.
Prediction:
Donovan Clingan: 15 points, 11 rebounds, 3 blocks
Tristen Newton: 20 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists
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