Where to watch WNBA playoffs: New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces preview, bracket, prediction, schedule, TV

The New York Liberty took the first step toward revenge over the Las Vegas Aces on Sunday with an 87-77 victory in Game 1 of their semifinal series. Breanna Stewart led the way with 34 points, five rebounds and four assists, while Sabrina Ionescu added 21 points, four rebounds and five assists. 

This is the second consecutive season that the Liberty and Aces are meeting in the playoffs. Only this time, it’s happening in the semifinals instead of the Finals. While the team that wins this series won’t lift the trophy, it may very well be the title-decider. 

The Liberty are the No. 1 overall seed in the playoffs and swept the Atlanta Dream in the first round to get here. As for the Aces, their disappointing regular season resulted in the No. 4 seed, and they had to get through the Seattle Storm in the first round. Though not an easy task, they managed to also complete a sweep. 

Ahead of the most anticipated matchup in the playoffs, here’s everything you need to know:

No. 1 New York Liberty vs. No. 4 Las Vegas Aces

• Game 1: Liberty 87, Aces 77 (Liberty 1-0)
• Game 2: Aces at Liberty, Oct 1, 7:30 p.m. — ESPN2
• Game 3: Liberty at Aces, Oct. 4, 9:30 p.m. ET — ESPN2
• Game 4*: Liberty at Aces, Oct. 6, TBD — TBD
• Game 5*: Aces at Liberty, Oct. 8, TBD — ESPN2

*If necessary

Players to watch

Liberty: Sabrina Ionescu

Ionescu put the Liberty on her back in Game 2 of the first round and finished with a playoff career-high 36 points, tying the Liberty’s franchise record for points in a postseason game. Can she maintain that level in this series? One of the many reasons the Liberty fell to the Aces in the Finals last season is that Ionescu did not play well: 9.8 points, 3.8 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game on 31.6% shooting overall. If she plays to her usual level, the Liberty have a great shot to advance. 

Aces: Chelsea Gray

Let’s stick with the guard theme here. Gray missed the first month of the season while recovering from a foot injury she suffered in the 2023 Finals, and struggled to find much of a rhythm upon her return. Over the last few weeks, however, there have been more and more glimpses. In the first round she averaged 14 points and eight assists, and including those two games the Aces are 22-7 with her in the lineup this season and 7-6 without her. Her presence alone is a huge boost for the Aces, and if she’s anywhere near her best, they can still pull off this three-peat. 

Three keys to the series

The Liberty’s jumbo defense vs. A’ja Wilson

There’s no stopping A’ja Wilson, but some teams are better equipped to make things difficult for her. The first round was a perfect example, as the Storm’s size and physicality in the paint forced Wilson to really work for her buckets. She still scored 45 points in the two games, but it took her 38 shots to get there and she attempted just seven free throws. As a result, the Storm had a chance to win both games. 

Can the Liberty follow the same blueprint? On paper, the answer is yes. 

The Liberty boast two of the league’s best interior defenders in Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones, who figure to take turns as the primary on Wilson. Around them, they have a very big starting lineup now that Leonie Fiebich has taken Courtney Vandersloot’s place, and play with plenty of physicality. And when Kiah Stokes is out there with Wilson, the Liberty will have a player they can largely ignore on the perimeter in order to crowd the paint. 

Wilson is going to get her numbers and have a major impact on both ends of the floor, but it’s worth noting that in the last two seasons, she has only eclipsed the 25-point mark once against the Liberty and their Stewart-Jones frontcourt. Will that trend continue? Or does the three-time MVP have a few tricks up her sleeve?

 3-point shooting

Of the eight teams that made the playoffs this season, none of them shot more 3-pointers in the regular season than the Liberty (29.0) and Aces (26.5), who finished first and third in the league, respectively, in attempts per game. Neither team shot it as well as they may have expected, but both still finished in the top five in terms of efficiency, with the Aces fourth (35.5%) and Liberty fifth (34.9%). If you look at percentage of points scored from 3-pointers, the Liberty were second (35.5) and the Aces were fourth (32.6). 

You could keep going with the stats, but the point is, 3-point shooting is vital for both teams, and could very well decide the series. 

That’s always true to an extent — teams that make more 3s than their opponent are 4-2 in the playoffs so far — but especially so in a matchup between two high-volume squads. The potential is there for outlier shooting performances in either direction, perhaps even in the same game. 

The new faces

For the most part, these teams are the same as they were when they met in the Finals last season. Same coaches, same key players, same styles of play. The exception to the rule is one important addition by each club: Leonie Fiebich and Tiffany Hayes. 

Fiebich, who arrived from Chicago via the Marina Mabrey trade, made her WNBA debut this season. The 24-year-old is not a normal rookie, however, as she had plenty of experience overseas. It didn’t take her long to establish herself as one of the Liberty’s most important players due to her size and versatility on the perimeter. Her presence allows the Liberty to switch everything on defense, and on the other end she’s a knockdown shooter who finished seventh in the league in 3-point shooting (43.3%).

Hayes is on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of experience. In fact, the 35-year-old announced her retirement from the WNBA at the end of last season, before making a surprise return in the middle of the season to sign with the Aces. For a team lacking depth, particularly in the backcourt, Hayes’ arrival has been a massive boost. She is a lead candidate for Sixth Player of the Year and often provides a much-needed jolt to change the energy of games when the Aces are struggling. 

Already, we’ve seen each player win their team a game in this postseason. Fiebich did it in Game 1 against the Dream, when she hit four 3s and scored a career-high 21 points. Hayes also had a big Game 1 in the Aces’ matchup with the Storm, and her 20 points and five steals off the bench lit a fire under the Aces’ lagging offense. 

Both will play an important part in this series and have a big say in which team advances. 

Prediction

The Liberty have been the best team in the league all season long, but the Aces have finally started to look like themselves lately. A month ago, the Liberty would have been heavy favorites, but now it’s just about a toss-up, with homecourt advantage swinging the odds slightly in the Liberty’s direction. 

Picking against Wilson and the reigning champions is a risky proposition, but even including their recent hot streak, the Aces have never fully clicked this season for one reason or another. The Liberty, spurred on by last season’s defeat in the Finals, have been a machine all season long, and their defense doesn’t have as many weak points as it did the last time these teams met in the playoffs. Pick: Liberty in 5