Super Bowl Film Preview: This Eagles defense matches up extremely well with this Chiefs offense

Goodness me, the Eagles are in another Super Bowl! I’ve watched a ton of Chiefs film … so this might be a long one. I decided whether or not to focus on a few specific areas, but it’s the Super Bowl! I’ll just cover as much as I possibly can. Hopefully, this is as comprehensive a preview as you will need!

I use a bunch of stats in this one, and credit goes to Team Rankings, PFF, and Sports Info Solutions. Lastly, my podcast co-host @ShaneHaffNFL is responsible for putting some of the graphics together in this one.

Last week, I rewatched the All22 of the Chiefs vs. Bills AFC Championship Game and commented on every play. I enjoyed it and found it extremely useful. I’ll comment quite a bit on that game in this one. If you want to check out the video, I did it on my Patreon, which you can subscribe to here. I learned a lot from doing it!

The Basics

The Chiefs run as much heavy personnel as any team in the league. Less than 50% 11 personnel is pretty insane in the modern NFL. You will see this throughout the article, but it is no surprise that the Chiefs rank 1st in using RPOs.

There are a lot of designed rollouts and screens, too. This offense is all about the short throws!

Misdirection, RPOs & YAC

The name of the game is misdirection. This is not a standard dropback offense. Everything this Chiefs’ offense does is about confusing the defense. Everything. They do not have enough talent to take a 5-step drop and throw it on time. It’s not what they do. It’s all RPOs with misdirection. It’s frustrating as hell. But it’s hard to stop.

I came into the film expecting everything to be about Travis Kelce. It is not. Xavier Worthy is the X-Factor. His speed and skill set create so much confusion. He is constantly moving, stretching the defense horizontally and vertically. Look at the rep below. The Chiefs fake GH Counter, but the tight end does a 180 and ends up lead blocking for Worthy. That is so clever.

Fake the run to the left and throw it to the right to a receiver coming across the formation who ran a 4.21 40. Football is simple. The Bills don’t play man coverage here, but they still can’t stop Worthy because the linebacker is caught staring into the backfield. Andy Reid must have sprinted to the podium when Worthy is available. He’s the perfect fit for this offense.

More misdirection… Worthy is eye candy on every single play. You must be so disciplined on defense.

The Chiefs don’t just run simple RPOs and throw it to the flat every time. They have some fantastic designs. Travis Kelce will always be a threat, so Reid uses him as eye candy here. The defenders’ eyes naturally go to Kelce and Worthy, running to the left. So, Mahomes throws it over the defenders’ head and hits JuJu Smith-Schuster over the middle.

We have seen the Eagles have issues in the flat this season. I guarantee you that Reid is going to target them with quick screens. The Eagles will have to rally to the football and tackle well. You can’t be too aggressive against the Chiefs, or they will make you pay. Despite that, you need to get after the ball quickly when you see the ball thrown.

Inverted Wishbone

If you’ve never seen the ‘Inverted Wishbone’ formation… get ready for it! The Chiefs use it a lot. This formation has Patrick Mahomes in the Pistol with two pass catchers on either side. They love running this formation because it causes so much confusion on the defensive side. As I stated earlier, it’s all about misdirection…

Misdirection… eye candy… it’s what this offense does. Andy Reid is as good as anyone at stretching a defense horizontally and testing the defense’s fundamentals and discipline. This is fantastic game planning. Many teams will run a ‘scrape exchange’ against any play where the quarterback is reading the EDGE defender, but by using the inverted wishbone, the Chiefs have a lead blocker to get the linebacker who is scraping. They will test the Eagles’ EDGE defenders a lot.

Take a look at the second level of the Bills’ defense. They have not got a clue what the Chiefs’ offense is doing. Andy Reid destroyed Sean McDermott’s’ defense.

More inverted wishbone? Oh, go on then…

Mahomes ran for 2 touchdowns last week, and will do it again if you don’t play the edge well.

The Chiefs usually start the play in the Pistol Offset formation, with two tight ends next to Mahomes on the same side. One will usually motion to the opposite side to create the inverted wishbone. However, the two tight ends will sometimes stay next to Mahomes and the Chiefs will run out of the Pistol Offset formation. Just to give you something else to think about as a defense!

In case I haven’t made this clear by now… it’s all about misdirection and deception.

4-Strong

Andy Reid loves running 4-strong. He will isolate the X-receiver and flood the passing strength. When they run this between the ’20s, Mahomes will often target the X-receiver. Especially, if this is Xavier Worthy. However, in the red zone, he rarely targets the X. He usually throws it to the 4-receiver side so he can flood one side of the field. Mahomes is incredibly sharp and only needs a tiny window to fire it in. He has incredible arm strength. You need to be extremely disciplined in your zone match coverage to take away all 4 of these routes.

Due to these tight window throws, defenses will be aggressive in the short area and jump all over these Travis Kelce routes. So, what do the Chiefs do? They throw it over the linebacker’s head. The Chiefs’ skill is sequencing plays together. Andy Reid knows how the defense is going to play them. He’s always one step ahead of the opposing defensive coordinator. That’s what makes Reid so good. He doesn’t have a clear philosophy, but he will find a defense weakness and relentlessly go after it.

Of course, Reid won’t make the 4-strong look predictable. The Chiefs run a lot of ‘fast 4’, where you motion the back out to the Trips side just before the snap. This is all to test the defensive rules. Every member of the secondary needs to know their assignments and how they will adjust to the Chiefs’ motion.

Rub/Pick Concepts

I would not play much man coverage at all against this offense. It may be tempting to play man coverage because the Chiefs’ receivers are not very good. But Andy Reid is the master of scheming open receivers against man coverage. The Bills played a lot of single-high man coverage against the Chiefs, which was a total disaster. The Chiefs’ offense destroyed man coverage. Even if you get pressure quickly on Mahomes, he is extremely comfortable getting the ball out quickly and finding the open receiver. Blitzing this offense and playing man coverage is risky. I wouldn’t do it.

There are a ton of concepts on film like this. The Chiefs love to get Mahomes on the move, too, to make these throws even easier. You cannot play obvious single-high man coverage. Luckily, the Eagles don’t do this as much!

Notice the similarity between the two plays below…

This is Andy Reid at his finest. The same play dressed up differently. Don’t play man coverage against this team in the red zone.

Worthy – Deep Shots

I’ve already mentioned him a ton. Worthy is the guy the Eagles need to stop. The Chiefs do not have the receivers to go down the field. This is not an offense that takes a lot of deep shots. However, every so often, Mahomes will take a shot to Worthy. The Chiefs will throw it short, try to get the defense to come closer to the LOS, and then chuck it deep. You must be disciplined on the back end.

When watching the deep shots, it was clear that the Chiefs love to throw them on 2nd and short. Keep an eye on the deep play-action shots on 2nd and short.

Patrick Mahomes

Despite being the best player in the NFL, I feel like Mahomes may still be underrated by some. He’s not had his finest year, but the film is still pretty unbelievable. I don’t get to go into detail here. It’s just worth pointing out that sometimes the defense can do everything right, and Mahomes can still make a play.

The Chiefs Running Game

Have you noticed that I’ve barely mentioned the Chiefs’ running game? It’s because it isn’t worth focusing on. The running backs aren’t great. The blocking is average. However, the design is good. As pointed out throughout the article, the run game relies on misdirection. Expect a lot of eye candy. If you can ignore the distractions, they run a lot of zone runs, and it’s pretty average. The running game is all about staying ahead of the sticks. The Chiefs run the ball because they have to. They do it on early downs to avoid getting into 2nd and long situations. The Eagles must win up front and shut down the Chiefs’ early down run game.

3rd and Long

This is not an offense that wins on 3rd and long. They don’t have the talent. The offense has to stay ahead of the sticks because the RPOs and misdirection are nowhere near as effective when the defense can sit in their zones near the LOS. Winning on early downs is absolutely vital against this offense. The film showed a bad team on 3rd and long, but I wanted to check my homework and asked my stats friend @ShaneHaffNFL, who confirmed my thoughts.

On 3rd/4th and 8+, the Chiefs have a 32.3% passing success rate which ranks 17th in the NFL. Their Bust Rate is higher than the Eagles in those situations at 30.8% vs 38.6%.

You may think that 17th isn’t terrible, but I expect a team with Reid and Mahomes to be a lot better.

How do you beat this offense?

I have good news! I think this Eagles’ defense matches up extremely well with this Chiefs’ offense. I went back and watched every sack of Mahomes and every interception he threw. There are some pretty clear themes. Firstly, you need to get the offense behind the sticks. You must win on early downs. Stop the 1st and 10 runs.

Then you play split-safety coverages and rush 4. You can run some simulated pressures, but Mahomes is very quick to diagnose pressure. I prefer rushing 4, playing zone (bracketing Kelce) and allowing the outside cornerbacks to go one-on-one with the Chiefs’ receivers. Mahomes will force it when he gets frustrated.

It may frustrate some fans, but I would play a bend but don’t break style. I don’t mind if the Chiefs check it down a lot and get into the red zone as long as you tighten up and force a field goal. Due to the lack of receiving talent, Mahomes will have to take shots into tight windows. The defense can take advantage of this.

Once again, this is how you play this offense. Rush 4, collapse the pocket with good rush lane integrity, and get numerous defenders around Kelce. Mahomes and Kelce play a lot of ‘buddy ball’ where Kelce will find any open space against the defense. This is why playing man coverage is risky. This play also shows what a defense can do if they don’t fall for the eye candy. Look at the depth that the linebackers get here. They don’t fall for the play-action at all. It’s all about being disciplined in coverage.

I watched every sack the Chiefs took, and many of them came from this type of play. Mahomes doesn’t want to take checkdowns on 3rd and long. He wants first downs. So, he will look to extend plays because he is outstanding out of structure. As a defense, I wouldn’t send a lot of pressure or play man coverage on 3rd and long. Play zone coverage, be disciplined in coverage, and get bodies around Kelce. The Chiefs’ offense does not scare me in obvious passing situations. They just don’t have the talent to win on the outside. It’s all about stopping Kelce and winning on early downs.

This is my favorite sack that I watched. The Raiders send 4 and rotate from split-safety to single-high. This is something I could see the Eagles doing a lot. However, rather then playing straight-up man coverage, they allow the outside cornerbacks to deal with the outside receivers one-on-one and get a lot of bodies around Kelce in the middle of the field. Mahomes should take the check down, but he doesn’t want to on 3rd and long!

I think that’s enough film!

Overall

The Eagles’ defense has significantly more talent than this Chiefs’ offense. Honestly, it’s a fascinating offense to study because it’s so incredibly well-designed, and Patrick Mahomes is unbelievable. But the talent level isn’t very high. If you can stay disciplined and not fall for the misdirection and deception, there isn’t a lot that scares me. Worthy is the X-Factor. He has legitimate game-breaking speed, and Andy Reid knows it. Reid uses him in so many different ways. Mahomes and Kelce will always make a few unbelievable plays, but you can stop this relationship by playing strong zone coverage and getting a lot of eyes around Kelce. Remember when the Eagles played man coverage and sent 5 last week, and Washington threw to Zach Ertz back-to-back after he beat Reed Blankenship in man coverage? Yeah, the Eagles must not do that again.

This defense has the talent to stop the Chiefs’ offense, and I feel pretty confident about it. However, you can never be too confident when playing Patrick Mahomes.

Thank you for reading! I’d love to hear your thoughts, so feel free to comment below and ask any questions. If you enjoyed this piece, you can find more of my work and podcast here.