NCAA Tournament Bracket 2024: Predictions for Biggest Upsets of Men’s 1st Round

The Madness of March is upon us.

The 2024 men’s NCAA tournament tipped off Tuesday, meaning we’re officially on the single-elimination trek toward crowning college basketball’s next champion.

As this event has taught us time and again, that means it’s time to expect the unexpected.

The Big Dance is defined by upsets as much as anything, and we’re here to get ahead of those bracket-busters and spotlight three teams capable of delivering seed-line stunners in the opening round.

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The Jayhawks are limping into this tournament—literally and figuratively. Kansas comes into this tournament having dropped four of its last five games (the last two by a combined 50 points), and head coach Bill Self announced Tuesday the team will be without star wing Kevin McCullar Jr., whose been in and out the lineup since late January due to a nagging knee injury.

For a club that has struggled to find consistent depth all season, it’s hard to overstate the impact of McCullar’s absence. The senior swingman paced the team in points (18.3) and ranked second in both rebounds (6.0) and assists (4.1).

This upset pick isn’t just about the Jayhawks’ struggles, though. These Bulldogs have plenty of bite, and they have some of the hallmark qualities seen in recent upset winners, like playing with pace, forcing turnovers and shooting threes at high volume (and with great accuracy).

Samford has eight different players who made at least 25 triples this season, and its top three scorers all shoot at least 42 percent from range. Junior forward Achor Achor, a junior college transfer from Australia, leads the team in points (15.8), rebounds (6.1) and blocks (1.8).

The Badgers should be worried about this draw.

Wisconsin, which plays a pace-controlled style, can’t keep up when its opponents start piling up points. While the Badgers are a perfect 17-0 when holding teams to 70 points or fewer, they’ve gone just 5-13 when teams clear that mark. James Madison, meanwhile, boasts top-10 rankings nationally in both points per game (84.4) and scoring margin (plus-15.1 per game).

The Dukes also match the defending champion UConn Huskies for this season’s best winning percentage (.912), and they last suffered a loss in late January. They also tipped off their campaign with a win over then-No. 4 Michigan State.

They fear no one, and with the kind of season they’ve had, they shouldn’t. Junior guard Terrence Edwards Jr. leads them in points (17.4) and assists (3.4), senior forward T.J. Bickerstaff averages a team-high 8.5 rebounds while shooting 62.2 percent and senior guard Noah Freidel has buried a team-best 77 threes at a 37.9-percent clip.

Throw the seed lines out the window for this one. In fact, if you follow KenPom.com’s efficiency ranks, the better team is the lower seed, as New Mexico holds the 23rd spot there while Clemson checks in at 34th.

Both ends of the floor favor the Lobos, too. Their 23rd-ranked defense is more than equipped to take on the Tigers’ 27th-ranked offense, while New Mexico’s own 41st-ranked attack could make life miserable for Clemson’s 65th-ranked defense.

Four different Lobos average between 12.5 and 16.1 points, led by senior guards Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. House, the high man in points, does a little of everything (3.6 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.3 steals), while Mashburn, son of the former NBA All-Star, fittingly plays a throwback game built around mid-range scoring. Freshman forward J.T. Toppin, the team’s top NBA prospect, averages 9.0 rebounds and 1.9 blocks in 26.4 minutes while shooting 63 percent from the field.

Clemson, meanwhile, seems ripe for an upset after losing three of its final four games—all against non-tournament teams, the last of which was decided by 21 points.